From 2004-09, IT employment grew by 602,000. New H-1B initial approvals in Computer related occupations was 315,249 or 52.4% of employment growth, similar temporary foreign worker categories likely raised the temporary foreign worker percentage to above 80% of employment growth. Over a similar period (2003-08), there was an abundance of new IT workers, as U.S. Citizen/Permanent Resident degree production exceeded demand at over 757,000 degrees conferred.
From 2004-09, only 2,360 jobs were created in "Computer and information scientists, research," the only category that requires a postgraduate degree (per CA PostSecondary Education Committee). Contrary to the graph above, if we exclude all new A.S. degrees, and assume all Tech support workers must have a B.S. degree, the educational system still performed adequately when foreign students are counted.
(Earlier study by specialty also shows no IT talent shortage)
U.S. Computer related degrees conferred (B.S., M.S., Prof. and PhD 2003 - 08)
U.S. Citizen and Permanent Residents = 505,042
Temporary Residents = 95.898
Total Degrees, Bachelors and above = 600,940
Computer related employment growth (2004-09) = 602,180 (100%)
H-1B visa, new approvals = 315,249 (52.4%)
L-1 visas issued (2005-09) est. 50% of incoming are IT = 185,689 (30.8%)
H-1B and L-1 employment growth total = 501,118 (83.2%)
Between 315,000 and 501,000 new IT jobs were assumed by H-1B and L-1 temporary workers. Excluding the degrees conferred to Temporary Residents, the unemployment rate for this segment of the workforce would be between 26.6% and/or 67.1% respectively. Speaking of unemployment, a modest 3% unemployment rate for the occupation provides another 96,000 persons in the ready workforce.
Referring to the Graph above:
H-1B and L-1 must have an employment offer to enter the U.S. and must remain employed H-1B and L-1 est. increases amounted to 80% of employment growth from 2004-09 Hiring counts of Citizen and PermRes are nearly identical to U.S. postgraduate degrees conferred Postgrad degree now preferred for Citizens/PermRes while undergrad degree for H-1 B, L-1 Undergraduate Citizen and PermRes are displaced by H-1B, L-1 or "crowd out" older Professionals The Computer related occupations are oversubscribed with foreign undergraduate level professionals.
The Question:
How did we arrive at the point where 52% of all new IT hires are H-1B and historically about 50% of all H-1B are in IT occupations?
The, "U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections,"
predicted that Computer Specialist occupational levels would reach 4.2 million, an increase of 1.9 million (82%) by 2010. The predicted "dire shortages" of Computer specialists did not occur because employment levels only reached 3.2 million in 2009.
Employers claim that they need this "slack" in the employment market and need access to the brightest in the world -- for the years in question, employment levels that require a postgraduate degree only grew by 2,360.
Recommendation:
The 2/3 employment retention rule:
Business immigration is
privilege, not a right, the most damaging aspect of the H-1B program is that it is unrestricted during recessions and unrestricted during the early stages of recovery. When water is splashed from a puddle, it is replaced with other water; in the case of unstoppable flow foreign labor, unemployment becomes permanent when an oversupply of labor exists during and after recession..
Metering the intake of foreign workers is extremely important when the business cycle is declining. Measured by occupations, the temporary foreign worker educational requirements should be adjusted upward when the count of new temporary workers exceeds 1/3 of employment growth statistic (more below). While keeping the door open for the brightest and best postgraduates (58% in 2009) and allowing the business cycle to run its course, the intake of undergraduate foreign professionals would be halted during recession and through early stages of recovery.
Three types of professionals are involved, but two of these professionals are the same person in a different time period: the U.S. professional, the temporary professional (H-1B), the dual-intent professional. Both the citizen and the dual-intent professional are interested in retaining permanent U.S. employment, the temporary professional is presumed to be mobile. From this perspective, the number of temporary foreign professionals should not exceed 1/3 of the long term employment growth statistic because there is already another, more seasoned, temporary professional who may choose to become a citizen.
.In an oversubscribed occupation such as IT, temporary layoffs in these permanent positions are often filled with new foreign workers instead of the separated worker. In raising visa educational requirements when a 1/3 oversubscription occurs, temporary visa are still available to the industry while population ratio recovers. In a recovering business cycle, unemployed and new student professional are favored due to visa restrictions. As the business cycle peaks, the restrictions on visa educational requirements are reduced.
The employment growth statistic would cover a period equal to the maturity of the temporary visa. The 2/3 employment retention rule protects citizens, permanent residents and persons adjusting status from permanent employment separation during recession. The 2/3 employment retention rule would discourage offshore outsourcing because a reduction in staff causes an immigration restriction within the occupation for the following year(s). The rule would allow separated workers and new college graduates a short term "grace" period while the economy is suffering and recovering from recession. Finally, the 2/3 employment reservation rule would help ensure that employment based immigration policy leans toward employment retention of current and future citizens.
This paper examines a six year period of:
Occupational Employment Growth
Employment based visas granted or employment approvals in the H-1B and L-1 categories
U.S. college degrees conferred in Computer related occupations.
H-1B Visa Impact on Computer Related Occupations 2009
We finally have the USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B):" reports. These H-1B reports are important because they publish the numbers of visas approved and the occupations of the new H-1B non-immigrant worker(s). Lou Dobbs started reporting about the excessive amount of H-1B workers affecting Computer related occupations in about 2006-07. The 2006-07 H-1B Characteristics reports, mandated by Congress, went unpublished for the remainder of the Bush Presidency.
Occupational Employment Data:
The Office of Employment Statistics (OES) has released its May 2009, estimates of the occupational employment and current wages. To determine the impact of these non-immigrant visa programs in the occupation, the first step is to find the employment growth in Computer related occupations.
Six year Growth in Computer related occupations 2004 - 2009
Entry Level Education Prereq
(STEPS)
Computer and information scientists, research = 2,360 PhD
Computer programmers = ( -35,340) BS
Computer software engineers, applications = 84,920 BS
Computer software engineers, systems software = 92,680 BS
Computer support specialists = 60,040 AS
Computer systems analysts = 27,000 BS
Database administrators = 10,540 BS
Network and computer systems administrators = 94,280 BS
Network systems and data communications analysts = 69,810 BS
Computer specialists, all other = 195,890 AS
Occupational Employment growth = 602,180
Even though the Computer related occupations lost (-1,120) jobs in 2009, employment growth of 602,180 jobs is a lot better than some of the other periods I've looked at. These were pretty good employment growth years, between recessions and notably , the Tech sector started hiring again in 2004.
I've sampled a six year growth period, because six years is the duration of the standard H-1B temporary foreign worker visa, with a three year initial and a three year continuing employment period.
Temporary Foreign Worker Data:
By the numbers, virtually all H-1B visas are renewed, or extended, counts of continuing employment approvals consistently exceed initial employment approvals. Excess visa counts in continuing approvals are due to a combination of continuing 3 year employment approvals and greencard (AC21) extensions, but these are still H-1B workers just the same. The H-1B count is this report are limited to initial employment approvals in Computer related occupations.
An H-1B non-immigrant worker cannot enter the U.S. without employment, so we know that a certain amount of occupational growth is/was reserved for H-1B initial employment.
Occupational Employment growth = 602,180
H-1B initial emp. approvals 2004 - 09 = 315,429 (52%)
Occupational Subtotal = 286,751
The H-1B is not the only non-immigrant visa that adversely affects Computer related occupations. The "Intra-company" L-1 visa, is also a three year visa, but differs with a single two year extension for workers and can be extended twice for managers.
The Office of Inspector General (OIG) has studied the L-1 visa and poses the question in a section heading, "Is the L-1, The Computer visa?" ...quoted from the same section...
"From 1999 to 2004, nine of the ten firms that petitioned for the most L-1 workers were computer and IT related outsourcing service firms that specialize in labor from India."
Like the H-1B visa, the L-1 visa is also "portable" under AC21 (greencard eligible) immigration law. In this estimate I will use 50% of the L-1 (instead of the OIG estimate of 90%) and limit the duration to a single extension of 5 years total. Computer related occupations within the H-1b program is generally 50%, the L-1 should be at least half Computer related considering the OIG documentation.
Occupational Subtotal = 286,751
50% of L-1 visas issued 2005 - 09 = 185,689
Subtotal (America's share 16.78% of occupational growth) = 101,063
Consequently, Americans are resigned to accept that 83% of its Computer related employment growth is reserved for H-1b and L-1 non-immigrants. Even with the current state of the economy, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (and others) lobbies for more high-skill non-immigrant visas.
Occupational Characteristics of IT related H-1B
Of the 56,000 IT related H-1B visas granted in 2006, 55% of these new H-1B holders were undergraduates (31,000). Sixty six percent of all (47,300 total) undergraduate H-1B initial approvals in 2006 were in Computer related (IT) occupations. All other occupations combined only received 16,300 H-1B undergraduates.
In 2006, 44% of those receiving new H-1B visas in computer-related occupations had master’s degrees, and a little more than 1% had doctoral degrees. Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006 are in S&T occupations Education Levels. .
In FY 2006, 57% of [all] new H-1B visa recipients had advanced degrees, including 41% with master’s degrees, 5% with professional degree, and 11% with doctorates. http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/c3s4.htm
From 2004-09, only 2,360 jobs were created in "Computer and information scientists, research," the only category that requires a postgraduate degree (per CA PostSecondary Education Committee).
U.S. Educational Data:
The latest (NCES) educational data is for 2008,. I've downloaded Computer related "Degrees Conferred" data for the six year period (2003 - 2008),for comparison with the {six year} Computer related occupational growth data.
Computer related occupations
Degrees conferred 2003 - 2008
U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents
Professional and PHD = 3,807
Masters = 106,614
Bachelors = 394,621
Associate = 252,720
Total Degrees Conferred = 757,762
Referring to the Graph above:
H-1B and L-1 must have an employment offer to enter the U.S. and must remain employed Hiring counts of Citizen and PermRes are nearly identical to postgraduate degrees conferred Undergraduate Citizen and PermRes are displaced in competition with H-1B, L-1 Employment requirements are postgraduate for Citizens/PermRes and undergrad for H-1 B, L-1.
Finally, there is a little more competition in the system -- foreign students.
Computer related occupations
Degrees conferred 2003 - 2008
Temporary Residents
Professional and PHD = 5,158
Masters = 60,290
Bachelors = 30,450
Associate = 5,114
Total = 101,012
About Educational Data:
Many foreign students will enter the H-1B or OPT programs.
Counts of degrees conferred could contain duplicates -- a B.S. holder might also have earned an A.S. during the sample period.
Some persons in the degrees conferred data may already be employed in IT, however 1 and 2 year certificate data are not included here.
Observations:
IT employers claim they need this much slack in the labor force and more H-1B is not responsive to the business cycle
The prerequisite for employment in IT has been raised to postgraduate degree for citizens/PermRes
There is an abundance of both H-1B and citizen/PermRes undergraduates
The long term plans for new H-1B are undeclared/uncertain
Employment retention must be a goal to accommodate citizens and new citizens
Conclusion:
The 2/3 employment retention rule:
Business immigration is
privilege, not a right, the most damaging aspect of the H-1B program is that it is unrestricted during recessions and unrestricted during the early stages of recovery.When water is splashed from a puddle it is replaced with other water; thus, unemployment becomes permanent when an oversupply of labor exists during and after recession..
Metering the intake of foreign workers is extremely important when the business cycle is declining. Measured by occupations, the temporary foreign worker educational requirements should be adjusted upward when the count of new temporary workers exceeds 1/3 of employment growth statistic (more below). While keeping the door open for the brightest and best postgraduates (58% in 2009) and allowing the business cycle to run its course, the intake of undergraduate foreign professionals would be reduced during halted and through early stages of recovery.
Three types of professionals are involved, but two of these professionals are the same person in a different time period: the U.S. professional, the temporary professional (H-1B), the dual-intent professional. Both the citizen and the dual-intent professional are interested in retaining permanent U.S. employment, the temporary professional is presumed to be mobile. From this perspective, the number of temporary foreign professionals should not exceed 1/3 of the long term employment growth statistic because there is already another, more seasoned, temporary professional who may choose to become a citizen.
.In an oversubscribed occupation such as IT, temporary layoffs in these permanent positions are often filled with new foreign workers instead of the separated worker. In raising visa educational requirements when a 1/3 oversubscription occurs, temporary visa are still available to the industry while population ratio recovers. In a recovering business cycle, unemployed and new student professional are favored due to visa restrictions. As the business cycle peaks, the restrictions on visa educational requirements are reduced.
The employment growth statistic would cover a period equal to the maturity of the visa. The 2/3 employment retention rule protects citizens, permanent residents and persons adjusting status from permanent employment separation during recession. The 2/3 employment retention rule would discourage offshore outsourcing because a reduction in staff causes an immigration restriction within the occupation for the following year(s). The rule would allow separated workers and new college graduates a short term "grace" period while the economy is suffering and recovering from recession. Finally, the 2/3 employment reservation rule would help ensure that employment based immigration policy leans toward employment retention of current and future citizens.
See Also:
A Shortage Where None is Found
http://immigration-weaver.blogspot.com/2009/08/shortage-where-none-is-found.html
Data Sources:
U.S. Department of State
Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas – FY1989-2009 Detail Table (Excel Spreadsheet)
Parent: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/nivstats/nivstats_4582.html
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Reports
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2009
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2008
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2007
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2006
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2005
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2004
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Reports:
Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates
National Cross Industry Estimates
2003 - 2009
Department Homeland Security : Office of the Inspector General
Report:
Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program
http://www.dhs.gov/xoig/assets/katovrsght/OIG_06-22_Jan06.pdf
California PostSecondary Education Committee
http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15
National Science Foundation
Data Source: IPEDS Completions Survey by Race
Analysis Variable: Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race (NCES population of institutions)
01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0103 Information Technology
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General
11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration
11.0803 Computer Graphics
11.0899 Computer Software and Media Applications, Other
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster
11.1099 Computer/Information Technology Services Administration and Management, Other
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
14.0901 Computer Engineering, General
14.0902 Computer Hardware Engineering
14.0903 Computer Software Engineering
14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other
15.1201 Computer Engineering Technology/ Technician
15.1202 Computer Technology/Computer Systems Technology
15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician
15.1299 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians, Other
26.1103 Bioinformatics
26.1199 Biomathematics and Bioinformatics, Other
51.2706 Medical Informatics
52.0208 E-Commerce/Electronic Commerce
52.1201 Management Information Systems, General
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other
