Saturday, October 20, 2007

Myth: Shortage of Domestic Engineering Graduates

Related:
Vivek Wadhwa, BusineesWeek: The Science Education Myth
American Friends Service Committee:
LABOR MOBILITY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
PhDs.org: Science, Math, and Engineering Career Resources
http://www.phds.org/
Urban Institute: The Real Technology Challenge (Research Report)

"It's a very serious proposal," says Lofgren. "The IEEE lays out in stark terms that there is an obvious shortage of qualified U.S. graduates, and it only makes sense to allow exceptional people the chance to stay here and innovate instead of forcing them back to form startups in other countries."

BusinessWeek: Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), chair of the House subcommittee, comment on the IEEE_USA green-card expansion proposal.

Zoe Lofgren (D- Calif.) "…obvious shortage of qualified U.S. graduates…"


Engineering degrees awarded to U.S. Permanent Residents and Citizens.
Extrapolated from the American Society for Engineering Education data, "Engineering By the Numbers" Michael T. Gibbons (
PDF)

DOCTORAL DEGREES 1999-2006 = 23,257
MASTERS DEGREES 1999-2006 = 155,298
BACHELOR'S DEGREES 1999-2006 = 685,007


Subtotal "Domestic" Engineering Degrees 1999-2006 = 863,562
(Adjust Masters and Bachelor’s to reflect multiple degrees)
DOCTORAL DEGREES 1999-2006 = 23,257
MASTERS DEGREES 1999-2006 = 132,041
BACHELOR'S DEGREES 1999-2006 = 552,966

Engineering Degrees 1999-2006:
individual Perm-Residents and Citizens = 708,264

Authors note: The aggregate ASEE Engineering degree data is not directly relational to BLS-OES aggregates. Foreign and Domestic yearly student ratios are reported by the ASEE, by degree level. Assuming these ratios are relevant to all fields of study, the following graph displays the top performing Engineering occupations and (all) domestic degrees awarded.

(Click image to enlarge)

BLS - OES Engineering occupations, sorted by Job growth 1999-2006.
Engineers, all other = 155,620
Industrial engineers = 42,430
Civil engineers = 27,590
Electronics engineers, except computer = 25,050
Aerospace engineers = 14,930
Mechanical engineers = 14,590
Computer hardware engineers = 14,060
Biomedical engineers = 7,580
Petroleum engineers = 5,420
Nuclear engineers = 5,290
Marine engineers and naval architects = 3,360
Agricultural engineers = 790
Chemical engineers = 430
Environmental engineers = -80
Mining and geological engineers, including mining safety engineers = -350
Materials engineers = -500
Electrical engineers = -1,540
Health and safety engineers, except mining safety engineers and inspectors = -15,850

Total BLS – OES Engineering Employment Growth = 298,820

Zoe Lofgren (D- Calif.) "…and it only makes sense to allow exceptional people the chance to stay here and innovate …"

"According to the American Society of Engineering Education (asee.org), foreigners account for nearly 45% of masters-level engineering students and 60% of PhDs."

Vivek Wadhwa, BusinessWeek: "The Visa Shortage: Big Problem, Easy Fix"

Cause for alarm? Justification for a massive increase in H-1B and green-card visas? Hardly, the fact that Mr. Wadhwa fails to mention, is that U.S. Educational capacity has grown over the years. According to the ASEE data, 3,212 Engineering PhDs were awarded to domestic students in 1999 and 3,198 domestic Engineering PhDs were awarded in 2006. (Fourteen fewer domestic PhDs than in 1999.) Domestic Masters Degrees in Engineering improved from 17,967 in 1999, to 23,487 in 2006.

Additionally, America already has a visa program to allow exceptional people a chance to stay.

The total number of Engineering PhDs awarded to foreign students in 2006 was 5,153, well within the annual 40,400 Employment-Based First Preference (E1) visa allotment.

The total number of Engineering Masters degrees awarded to foreign students in 2006 was 15,528, well within the annual 40,400 Employment-Based Second Preference (E2) visa allotment.

The total number of Engineering Bachelors degrees awarded to foreign students in 2006 was 5,341, well within the annual 40,400 Employment-Based Third Preference (E3) visa and recapture of unused (E2) visa allotment.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html

Zoe Lofgren (D- Calif.) "…instead of forcing them [foreign students] back to form startups in other countries."

Zoe Lofgren has mixed apples with oranges with the previous statement, America has an adequate supply of Employment-based visa allotment to easily absorb 100% of the foreign-born Engineering students annually.

The H-1B, L-1 guestworker visa programs have caused the back-log in green-card applications. The H-1B and L-1 visa programs have broken the (EB) Employment-based path to citizenship. The H-1B and L-1 is the path to hireling peonage for skilled professionals both foreign and domestic.

Excessive immigration hyper-inflates the U.S. housing market, forcing salary requirements to exceed globally competitve levels. Yes, we need to allow these foreign students and guestworkers to go home to improve third-world economies – would we rather have highly-skilled Citizens be forced to go abroad and compete against us?

Addition views of 1999 - 2006 ASEE Engineering Data:








Friday, October 5, 2007

Myth: Labor Shortage in Computer and Math

Misinformed, or simply telling lies? Bill Gates and others are selling fairy-tales.

Google Video: Bill Gates before the U.S. Senate
Youtube Video: Robert Hoffman Oracle/CompeteAmerica debates Ron Hira on CNBC

2005 and 2006 H-1B and Educational data is not yet available for Computer and Mathematical Occupations, yet growth in the labor force, up-to 2004, still far exceeds employment growth totals to May 2006.

Note: Computer and Mathematical occupations shed 160,190 existing jobs between 2000 and 2002. During this employment contraction, 165,229 computer-related H-1Bs were approved for initial employment. 2000 -- 2002 domestic job losses (160,190) and job losses due to H-1B replacement/displacement workers (165,229) caused reserves in the labor force of 325,419 Computer and Mathematical professionals.

The graph below shows additions to the labor force (permanent resident Math and Computer Science BS degrees awarded plus H-1B initial employment approvals) compared to employment growth since 1999. (click image to enlarge)


Note: Over 97% of all H-1B initial employment approvals are also approved for continuing employment and a recent Duke University study indicates that some 500,000 of these workers are seeking permanent resident status. Statistically, the unpublished numbers of departing H-1B workers are insignificant.

In the graph below, I've removed the H-1B data to determine if the domestic educational system would have serviced workforce requirements of Math and Computer Science employment.

Below, we can again note the workforce reserve of 160,190 idle Math and Computer Science workers displaced in the 2000-2002 employment contraction. Furthermore, the educational data does not include, B.S. degrees awarded to foreign students enrolled in American colleges, postgraduate degrees, A.S. degrees, nor vendor certifications. (click image to enlarge)


As of 2002, the domestic educational system has clearly resumed servicing the industry's Math & Computer Science employment needs.

The high employment levels in 2000, were most likely the result of the Y2K buildup, 2001 employment levels were still a bit high due to the Dot-Com bubble. Also, in 2002, Microsoft's first stable, IP based - LDAP enabled, operating systems were becoming fully implemented. (Windows 9x burned gazillions of administration hours.)

The 325,419 professionals displaced in 2001-2002 are simply out of luck, if the H-1B program continues, students studying Math and Computer Science will find that careers in these occupation(s) are temporary, future generations will refuse to study these disciplines without better employment prospects.

In the unlikely event that substantial domestic job growth is experienced, in Math and CompSci. we have 1999 as an example.


Somehow, Mathematics and Computer Science occupations grew 11.93% in 2000 (312,730 jobs) while the NSF 1999 Employment Characteristics survey reported unemployment at 1.2% for all degree levels.

Unemployment statistics represent only individuals who have been recently employed or are seeking employment in an occupation, unemployment statistics do not represent every person with education, training or expertise in an occupation.

Citing unemployment statistics as a reason to dilute the domestic labor force is dishonest.

Avg. Math and CS job growth 2000 -- 2006 = 65,160

Avg. Math and CS unemployment 2000 -- 2005 = 128,167

Employment Data:
BLS - OES 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical employment levels

1999 Unemployment survey:

National Science Foundation/Science Resources Statistics Division,
1999 SESTAT (Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/us-workforce/1999/tables/TableB5.pdf

2000 -- 2005 Unemployment data:
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/07s0612.xls

Educational Data:
NSF Educational Statistics http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/wmpd/tables/tabc-6.xls

H-1B Data:
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/H1B_FY05_Characteristics.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/FY2001Charact.pdf