U.S. College Degree: Return on Investment

Something got me wondering about the "Return on Investment" of a college degree the other day. I think the best way to look at ROI on education is to see how many years the College Graduate can expect to be employed before being replaced.

The yearly average shortfall in College Graduate employment is 451,824. Persons reaching retirement age is now at 16.12% (up from 15.69% end of 1992). This (16.12% retirement rate) would put the employment shortfall for college graduates at 378,986 per year. Assuming that all 1,493,000 new class of 2009 college graduates are interested in working, this would create an "non-emloyment" rate of 25.38%.

In 2006 Occupational shock to the economy from high-skill temporary visas are as follows:

H-1B Specialty occupations requiring bachelor’s equivalent = 135,421
L-1 Intracompany transfers = 72,613
O-1 People of extraordinary ability = 6,961
O-2 Workers assisting O-1 = 3,726
TN NAFTA high-skilled visa (most from Canada) = 2,972

Total high skill visas (generally require a Bachelors): 221,693
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-28.htm

If we remove these temporary visas, the "non-employment" rate would fall to
10.54%

Period 1993 to 2009 (Aug.)

Yearly
Avg. Increase in College Graduates = 1,418,588
Avg. Increase in College Grad Employment = 966,765

Totals:
Total increase in College Grads = 24,116,000
Total increase in CG employment = 16,435,000

Divide (increase in CG emp) by (yrly avg increase in CGs)

(16,435,000 / 966,765)

Avg Length of College Graduate (employment) career = 11.58 years

BLS - CPS Data:
College Degrees

Series title: (Seas) Population Level - Bachelor?s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level - Bachelor?s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over

Retirement:

Series title: (Unadj) Population Level - 65 yrs. & over
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level

A Shortage Where None Is Found

Bill Gates and Oracle lobbyist Robert Hoffman are concerned that the U.S. is not producing the "correct" number of Computer-related specialists in the "correct" specialties to satisfy market demand. This "shortage" claim is used in support of expanding the H-1B and L-1 guest-worker visa program.

Computer-related H-1B initial approvals averaged 58,115 per year from 2000 to 2005, occupational reporting on H-1B visa appears to have been discontinued. To date, I know of no occupational data reporting on L-1 intracompany visas.

Aggregate Supply/Demand does not exhibit a shortage:

At face value, using the latest three years of BLS/OES employment and NCES educational data, the aggregate totals of degrees and certifications awarded to Citizens and Permanent Residents do not support the "shortage" claims of Gates and Hoffman in computer related occupations.

Subtracting the May 2005 BLS/OES employment levels from May 2008 levels, we arrive at the three year employment growth in the occupation. (These were good employment growth years (12% for the 3 yr. period) for the Computer-related occupations; moreover, the majority of recent job losses in the economy occured after May 2008.)

BLS - OES Computer Related Employment Growth:
Computer-related occupations (15-1000 Computer Specialists )
(Three year employment growth May 2006, 07, 08)

Computer and Information Scientists, Research = 720
Computer Programmers = 5,140
Computer Software Engineers, Applications = 38,180
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software = 61,110
Computer Support Specialists = 45,660
Computer Systems Analysts = (-2,230)
Database Administrators = 16,390
Network and Computer Systems Administrators = 57,520
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts = 45,220
Computer Specialists, All Other = 75,020
Total Employment Growth = 342,730

The most recent three years of college degree and certification data is 2005 - 2007.

Computer related Degrees & Cert Awarded 2005, 2006, 2007
U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents: (NCES Survey)

Doctorate Degrees = 2,112
Master's Degrees = 53,466
Bachelor's Degrees = 188,063
Associate's Degrees = 111,251
Post−Master's Certificates = 520
Post−Baccalaureate Certificates = 2143
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 2,392
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 19,052
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 33,435
Total (Citizen & Perm. Res.) Degree Production = 412,434

Degree and Certification production exceeded employment growth by 69,704. Of course, these are just aggregates, and do not address the claim that these graduates are not majoring in the specialties which the U.S. employment market demands.

Analysis of educational production to specialty occupations growth:

While researching this blog-entry, I found that many college majors are relevant to more than one Computer-related occupation, I had to find a way to make order out of what appeared to be chaos.

The NAICS will re-order the (SOC 2000) Minor Group, "15-1000 Computer Specialists" to "15-1100 Computer Occupations" in 2010. The 2010 classification's Broad Groups are parent categories that contain Detailed Occupations which will be closely aligned with the (SIC) codes used in education.

2010 SOC Code and Title

Major Group
...... ...... Minor Group .
..... ...... ...... Broad Group
...... ...... ...... ...... Detailed Occupation

15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations
...... ...... 15-1100 Computer Occupations
...... ...... ...... 15-1110 Computer and Information Research Scientists
...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1111 Computer and Information Research Scientists
...... ...... ...... 15-1120 Computer and Information Analysts
...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1121 Computer Systems Analysts
...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1122 Information Security Analysts
...... ...... ...... 15-1130 Software Developers and Programmers
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1131 Computer Programmers
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1132 Software Developers, Applications
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1134 Web Developers
...... ...... ...... 15-1140 Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1141 Database Administrators
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1142 Network and Computer Systems Administrators
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1143 Computer Network Architects
...... ...... ...... 15-1150 Computer Support Specialists
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1151 Computer User Support Specialists
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1152 Computer Network Support Specialists
...... ...... ...... 15-1190 Miscellaneous Computer Occupations
...... ............ ............ 15-1199 Computer Occupations, All Other

I used the Broad Group levels to segregate the college majors and degree levels in the following categories for comparison to employment growth:

15-1110 Computer and Information Research Scientists (Doctorates req.)
15-1120 Computer and Information Analysts (Bachelors req. but used Master's)
15-1130 Software Developers and Programmers (Bachelors req.)
15-1140 Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects (Bachelors req.)

And combined the two following classifications:

15-1150 Computer Support Specialists (Associates req.)
15-1190 Miscellaneous Computer Occupations (Associates req.)


The following are the relevant fields of study/graduation data, organized to represent the parent (2010 SOC) occupational categories and relfecting degree paths referenced in the, "School To Employment Pathways System (STEPS)".

15-1110 Computer and Information Research Scientists
Scientists -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Doctorate Degrees

11.0103 Information Technology = 19
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General = 689
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst = 11
11.0401 Information Science/Studies = 171
11.0701 Computer Science = 724
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics = 17
51.2706 Medical Informatics = 24
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other = 87

Total Degrees for 15-1100 Scientists = 1,655
Total Employment Growth for 15-1100 Scientists = 720


15-1120 Computer and Information Analysts
Analysts -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Master's Degrees (min. req. is Bachelors)

11.0103 Information Technology = 1,546
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General = 9,663
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst = 586
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster = 10

Total Masters Degrees for 15-1120 Analysts = 11,805
Total Employment Growth for 15-1120 Analysts = (-2,230)


15-1130 Software Developers and Programmers
Programming -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Bachelor's Degree req.

11.0103 Information Technology
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
51.2706 Medical Informatics
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General
11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design
14.0901 Computer Engineering, General
14.0902 Computer Hardware Engineering
14.0903 Computer Software Engineering
15.1299 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians, Other
26.1103 Bioinformatics
51.0709 Medical Office Computer Specialist/Assistant
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0803 Computer Graphics
11.0899 Computer Software and Media Applications, Other
14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other
15.1201 Computer Engineering Technology/ Technician
15.1202 Computer Technology/Computer Systems Technology
15.1203 Computer Hardware Technology/Technician
15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician
26.1199 Biomathematics and Bioinformatics, Other
52.0208 E−Commerce/Electronic Commerce


Doctorate Degrees = 323
Master's Degrees = 19,911
Bachelor's Degrees = 91,294
Post−Master's Certificates = 124
Post−Baccalaureate Certificates = 874

Bachelors Degrees & greater w Post Grad Certs for 15-1120 Programmers = 112,526
Total Employment Growth for 15-110 Programmers = 104,430

Associate's Degrees = 113,172
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 652
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 7,358
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 10,380

Additional Assoc. level Degrees & Certs 15-1130 Programmers = 131,562


15-1140 Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects
Database and Network -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Bachelor's Degree req.

11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0103 Information Technology
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security
11.1099 Computer/Information Technology Services Administration and Management, Other
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
52.1201 Management Information Systems, General


Doctorate Degrees = 47
Master's Degrees = 21,747
Bachelor's Degrees = 96,769
Post−Master's Certificates = 396
Post−Baccalaureate Certificates = 1,269

Total Degrees & Post Grad Certs for 15-1140 Database & Network = 120,228
Total Employment Growth for 15-1140 Database & Network = 119,130

Associate's Degrees = 16,834
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 182
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 2,725
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 4,224

Other Degrees & Certs 15-1140 Database & Network = 23,965


15-1150 Computer Support Specialists AND
15-1190 Miscellaneous Computer Occupations
Specialist & Misc -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Associate Degree / Certification req.

01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0601 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, General
11.0602 Word Processing
11.0699 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, Other
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other

Associate's Degrees = 53,588
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 1,558
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 8,968
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 18,663

Degrees & Certs Awarded for 15-1150 Specialists & 15-1190 Miscellaneous = 82,777
Employment Growth for 15-1150 Specialists & 15-1190 Miscellaneous = 120,680

At first glance, it may appear the there was a shortage of Support Specialists and Misc. Computer Occupations; however, there is 131,562 unused Associate level degrees and Certs in 15-1130 (Programming) and 23,965 Associate level degrees and Certs in 15-1140 (Database and Network)

My conclusion is that degree and certification levels are in line with market demand. Sadly, the H-1B and L-1 visa programs also exceed employment growth within the computer related occupations and Computer Science enrollment is declining because smart kids do their homework before choosing a college major.

Data:

OES Employment Growth:
"Bureau of Labor Statistics"
http://www.bls.gov/oes

15-1011 Computer and Information Scientists, Research
15-1021 Computer Programmers
15-1031 Computer Software Engineers, Applications
15-1032 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
15-1041 Computer Support Specialists
15-1051 Computer Systems Analysts
15-1061 Database Administrators
15-1071 Network and Computer Systems Administrators
15-1081 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts
15-1099 Computer Specialists, All Other

2010 Standard Occupational Classification
http://www.bls.gov/soc/soc_structure_2010.pdf

SOC occupation code to SIC educational code crosswalk:
"School To Employment Pathways System (STEPS)"
http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15

Educational Data:
"IPEDS Completion Survey NCES"
http://webcaspar.nsf.gov/

01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
11.0103 Information Technology
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General
11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
11.0601 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, General
11.0602 Word Processing
11.0699 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, Other
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration
11.0803 Computer Graphics
11.0899 Computer Software and Media Applications, Other
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster
11.1099 Computer/Information Technology Services Administration and Management, Other
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
14.0901 Computer Engineering, General
14.0902 Computer Hardware Engineering
14.0903 Computer Software Engineering
14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other
15.1201 Computer Engineering Technology/ Technician
15.1202 Computer Technology/Computer Systems Technology
15.1203 Computer Hardware Technology/Technician
15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician
15.1299 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians, Other
26.1103 Bioinformatics
26.1199 Biomathematics and Bioinformatics, Other
51.0709 Medical Office Computer Specialist/Assistant
51.2706 Medical Informatics
52.0208 E−Commerce/Electronic Commerce
52.1201 Management Information Systems, General
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other

Instead of creating a rather complicated database, I used a spreadsheet and color-coded occupational "Broad groups" and their college degrees acceptable to the occupations to ensure that I did not re-use/double-count any college degrees or certifications.

Author generated table from NCES DATA: click to enlarge

Underpayment of H-1B Wages?

There is still some argument as to the practice of under-paying H-1B workers in Computer-related occupations. Does it exist? Is it pervasive?

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer
scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer." http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-29.htm

The most recent H-1B salary information (I'm aware of) is 2006 data from Homeland Security.

Average annual salary of new recipients of H-1B
temporary work visas, by occupation and degree:
FY 2006 (Dollars)

H-1B Computer-related occupations

All degree levels = 56,200.00

Bachelor's = 56,000.00
Master's = 55,600.00
Professional = 71,200.00
Doctorate = 80,400.00

SOURCE: Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, special tabulations. http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-29.htm

For comparison, to H-1B salaries I've taken the published Mean Annual wage and created an average mean from all occupations within the BLS-OES 15-1000 Computer Specialists SOC classification. SOC 15-1000 (link) is identical to the DOT classified Computer related occupations (link)

Avg. Mean Annual Salary 2006:

15-1000 Computer Specialists = $69,123.42
Total Employment 2006 = 2,969,510
Total Mean Annual in Dollars = $205,262,675,900.00

http://www.bls.gov/oes/2006/may/oes150000.htm

Looking back at the H-1B salaries, we see that those H-1Bs with a Master's degree were paid $400.00 less than H-1Bs with Bachelor's degrees. I did the math in an earlier blog which puts the H-1B group (Computer related) with Master's degrees at 25,490 and the Bachelors degrees at 31,862.


Annual Salary 2006:
15-1000 Computer Specialists = $69,123.42 (Avg. Mean all degree levels)

H-1B Computer Specialist = $56,200.00 (Avg. all degree levels)

H-1B Underpayment = $12,923.42

(Yes, I comparing a Avg. Mean to an Average -- perhaps a couple dollars difference?)

Let's assume for a moment that business and government are interested in controlling the salaries of Computer Specialists. Assume, the method is importing lower paid specialists and the target salary is (the H-1B salary) $56,200.00.

This creates a circular problem for the government, the 2006 taxable gross wages for the occupation was $205 Billion. Reducing the salaries to $56,200.00 will reduce the tax base by $38 Billion. Of course to remedy this loss, the government will need to authorize 682,851 computer related visas (23% of the occupation) to recover from the tax loss -- that is "if" everyone else is retained. There is no telling how many foreclosures increasing immigration will cause in our zero growth economy.

Additionally, most of that $38 Billion was disposable income the lubricant for the economy.


2006, 15-1000 Computer Specialists ___ Employed ___ Mean Annual

Computer and Information Scientists, Research 27,650 ___ $96,440
Computer Programmers 396,020 ___ $69,500
Computer Software Engineers, Applications 472,520 ___ $82,000
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 329,060 ___ $87,250
Computer Support Specialists 514,460 ___ $44,350
Computer Systems Analysts 446,460 ___ $72,230
Database Administrators 109,840 ___ $67,460
Network and Computer Systems Administrators 289,520 ___ $65,260
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 203,710 ___ $67,460
Computer Specialists, All Other 180,270 ___ $69,370

U.S. Employment Perfomance in 21st Century

Delta between growth in working age population (16 and over) and the growth in employment levels:

Click image to enlarge.

Delta between growth in Bachelor's degree (and higher) in population (25 and over) and the growth in Bachelor's degree (and higher) employment levels:

Click image to enlarge.

Data:

Downloaded from www.bls.gov/data (CPS) on July 21, 2009.

Series Id: LNU00000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level
Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over

Series Id: LNU02000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over

Series Id: LNU00027662
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level - Bachelor?s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 25 years and over
Educational attainment: College graduates

Series Id: LNU02027662
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level - Bachelor?s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 25 years and over
Educational attainment: College graduates

Something to Teaparty about.

Current U.S. employment growth is below the levels of the 1950's -- not just in percentages -- in real numbers.

Employment growth when divided by Population growth, to create a percentage statistic, is a meager 19.57%. This means that there has only been one job created for every five persons (16 and older) entering the workforce since Dec. 31, 1999.

How can we bring in over one million legal immigrants per year, if we can't create enough jobs to employ our own children? If this isn't a depression, the government seems hell-bent to create one.

The reason we Teaparty is because our Representatives appear to represent citizens of other countries and Global Corporate Citizens.

1950's
Population Growth = 11,516,000
Employment Growth = 7,215,000 (62.65%)

1960's
Population Growth = 19,449,000
Employment Growth = 13,862,000 (71.27%)

1970's
Population Growth = 30,811,000 (Depression in Mexico)
Employment Growth = 21,224,000 (68.88%)

1980's
Population Growth = 20,865,000
Employment Growth = 17,685,000 (84.76%)

1990's
Population Growth = 21,667,000
Employment Growth = 16,998,000 (78.45%)

2000's (Mar. 2009)
Population Growth = 26,254,000
Employment Growth = 5,137,000 (19.57%)

Avg for previous 1950'- 1990's = (73.20%)
Avg. employment growth for 2000's should/would have been: = 19,218,994

Employment Shortfall 2000-2009 (March) = 14,081,994

From David Ricardo. On Wages

The market price of labour is the price which is really paid for it, from the natural operation of the proportion of the supply to the demand; labour is dear when it is scarce, and cheap when it is plentiful. However much the market price of labour may deviate from its natural price, it has, like commodities, a tendency to conform to it.

It is when the market price of labour exceeds its natural price, that the condition of the labourer is flourishing and happy, that he has it in his power to command a greater proportion of the necessaries and enjoyments of life, and therefore to rear a healthy and numerous family. When, however, by the encouragement which high wages give to the increase of population, the number of labourers is increased, wages again fall to their natural price, and indeed from a reaction sometimes fall below it.

When the market price of labour is below its natural price, the condition of the labourers is most wretched: then poverty deprives them of those comforts which custom renders absolute necessaries. It is only after their privations have reduced their number, or the demand for labour has increased, that the market price of labour will rise to its natural price, and that the labourer will have the moderate comforts which the natural rate of wages will afford.

http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/ricardo-wages.html

Source Data:
BLS CPS Downloaded on 4/20/2009
http://www.bls.gov/data/

Formula: Each decade represents EOY Dec XXX9 to EOY Dec XXX9
Example: Decade of 1950's = Dec 1949 to Dec. 1959.

Series Id: LNU00000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level
Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population
Age: 16 years and over

Series Id: LNU02000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Age: 16 years and over

Petition to remove Computer-related occupations from employment based immigration

Problems, are sometimes not resolved to the lowest common denominator. The glaring problem in high-skill temporary immigration, is not the H-1B and L-1 programs, it is the gross over-subscription of H-1B and L-1 nonimmigrants in the "Computer-related occupations." One solution is to decertify Computer-related occupations from the DOJ list of "Specialty occupations."

A National Science foundation report shows that in 2006, 51% of all 113,593 H-1B visas granted were to Computer-related occupations. [57,932 visas]
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/fig03-62.htm

Here is what the law says about employment related immigration.

U.S. Code Collection
TITLE 8 > CHAPTER 12 > SUBCHAPTER II
> Part II > § 1182
§ 1182. Inadmissible aliens

(5) Labor certification and qualifications for certain immigrants
(A) Labor certification

(i) In general Any alien who seeks to enter the United States for the purpose of performing skilled or unskilled labor is inadmissible, unless the Secretary of Labor has determined and certified to the Secretary of State and the Attorney General that—

(I) there are not sufficient workers who are able, willing, qualified (or equally qualified in the case of an alien described in clause (ii)) and available at the time of application for a visa and admission to the United States and at the place where the alien is to perform such skilled or unskilled labor, and

(II) the employment of such alien will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed. (ii) Certain aliens subject to special rule For purposes of clause (i)

(I), an alien described in this clause is an alien who—
(I) is a member of the teaching profession, or
(II) has exceptional ability in the sciences or the arts.
(iii) Professional athletes
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/uscode08/usc_sec_08_00001182----000-.html

First, we see that employment based immigration is the exception rather than the rule. Immigration "for the purpose of performing skilled or unskilled labor is inadmissible..." the exception is where the Secretary of Labor has certified insufficient workers at the time and place, but "the employment of such alien will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed." The current list of DOL certified occupations in "sciences or the arts" are generally called "Specialty Occupations. " The list of specialty occupations can be found on Form ETA-9035.

The occupational over-subscription is in the DOT defined, "Computer-Related Occupations."

COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS
[Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT)]
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

Over-subscription data comes the discontinued USCIS "H-1B Characteristics reports" from 2000-2005.[1] H-1B statistics for the (DOT) Computer-related occupations, are synonymous with the BLS - OES, "SOC" 15-1000 Computer Specialists. http://www.bls.gov/soc/soc_c0a0.htm

Guestworker over-subscription in Computer-related occupations.
From 2000-2006, employment growth (BLS-OES) in the (SOC) 15-1000 Computer Specialists, was 326,600. [2]

The National Science Foundation reports that 310,749 B.S. Computer Science degrees were granted to Americans from 2000 - 2006, with an additional 26,533 BS-CS awarded to temporary residents. [3] Domestic BS-CS degree production of 337,282 awards, exceeded "(SOC) 15-1000 Computer Specialist" employment growth of 326,600.

During a shorter period, 2001-2006, reflecting the six year H-1B duration, 328,968 H-1B visas were granted to "initial employment approvals" for Computer related occupations.[1][4] Computer-related occupations, H-1B initial employment approvals, also exceeded employment growth.

Factoid: 2000 to 2005 [1]
Computer related H-1B "Initial employment approvals = 348,691
Computer related H-1B "Continuing employment approvals = 390,506

Narrowing the scope to the 2000-02 recession, [2] the BLS-OES occupational statistics show an employment decline of 134,960 in Computer-related occupations, during 2001 (110,712) and 2002 (25,637) H-1B awards were added to the occupational group. Employment for H-1B is reserved as a condition of entry, therefore, the decline in the occupation and new H-1B are additive, bringing the job losses to 271,309.

The H-1B is only one of the high-skill non-immigrant visa program that has "...adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed." There are many high-skill nonimmigrant visa categories, the "O", "H-1", "L-1" and "TN" visas are all employment based temporary visas.[5] that can include Computer-related occupations.

High-skill temporary visas (H-1B, L-1,H-3, O-1, O-2, TN) [5]
1998 = 136,000
1999 = 165,930
2000 = 197,520
2001 = 230,400
2002 = 184,770
2003 = 165,430
2004 = 213,020
2005 = 203,320
2006= 224,060

Again, 271,309 workers were permanently displaced by the glut in computer-related H-1B awards, another 310,749 American BS-CS graduates entered the workforce. As a condition of employment, H-1B must have an employment offer, so 582,058 high skill workers were shut out of the Computer-related occupations. Additionally, 430,084 L-1 Intracompany visas were issued during the 2000-2006 period.[6] There are no statistics available to prove the L-1 subscription levels for Computer-related, but the OIG made the following statement:

"From 1999 to 2004, nine of the ten firms that petitioned for the most L-1 workers were computer and IT related outsourcing service firms that specialize in labor from India." [7]

Fraud estimate in Computer-related immigration:
The USCIS recently found a 31% violation/fraud rate in H-1Bs with Bachelor's degrees as the highest level of education.[8] Bachelor's degreed H-1B recipients are higly concentrated in Computer-related occupations. The NSF reports that roughly 47,300 of all new H-1Bs in 2006 did not have advanced degrees, in Computer-related occupations, 35,904 did not have advanced degrees (postgrad). 75.9% of all H-1Bs withless than a postgraduate degree were granted to Computer-related occupations in 2006.[9]

The most popular H-1B occupation also experienced the fourth highest rate of fraudulent conduct - computer-related occupations accounted for 42% (104 cases) of the sample. Among this sample, 27% (28 cases) were associated with some type of fraud or technical violation(s).[8]

Additionally, due to the AC21, H-1B and L-1 portability provisions,[10] it is reasonable to assume that similar violation/fraud rates exist in the Employment based green card PERM system, which is currently experiencing a backlog 500,000 applicants.

Overall, we estimate that the number of employment based principals (in the three main employment visa categories—EB1, EB2, and EB3) waiting for legalpermanent residence in the United States in 2006 was 500,040.
http://www.cggc.duke.edu/documents/IntellectualProperty_theImmigrationBacklog_andaReverseBrainDrain_003.pdf

America's high skill immigration policy has been completely insensitive to changing market conditions, even when employment creation has gone negative, America continues to import skilled workers without regard to available data. Other countries, such as Australia adjust their immigration intake by occupation.

"The economic circumstances in Australia have changed as a result of the global financial crisis," Senator Evans said. "It is prudent to reduce this year's migration intake accordingly."

The cuts will be coupled with deletions to the critical skills list,which specifies which jobs are open to migrants.

Senator Evans said Australia needs a more targeted list "so that migrant workers are meeting skills shortages and not competing with locals for jobs".
Government to cut immigration intake, 16 March 2009

Fortunately, Elaine Chao is no longer the Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis has been sworn in, she has publicly stated that she is interested in reviewing the H-1B and other non-immigrant employment programs. http://www.dol.gov/_sec/welcome.htm

I suggest that we call the DOL (Telephone: 1-866-4-USA-DOL (1-866-487-2365)) or email ExecutiveSecretariat@dol.gov and ask that Ms. Solis decertify "Computer-related Occupations" from the H-1B, L-1 OPT and EB-3 employment based visa programs.

The definition of Computer-related Occupations would include:
(DOT) "Computer Related Occupations"
(SOC) "15-1000 Computer Specialists"
(NCES - CIP) COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCES AND SUPPORT SERVICES

And the occupations listed under the following NAICS Industries:
54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services
541511 Custom Computer Programming Services
541512 Computer Systems Design Services
541513 Computer Facilities Management Services
541519 Other Computer Related Services

References:
[1] Source: USCIS
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2000
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2001
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2002
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2003
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2004
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2005

[2] Source: Occupational Employment Statistics
15-1000 Computer Specialists Employment May 2000 = 2,642,910
15-1000 Computer Specialists Employment May 2006 = 2,969,510
Employment growth = 326,600

[3] Source: National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics, special tabulations of U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Completions Survey, 1997–2006.

[4] Source: National Science Foundation
"Chapter 3. Science and Engineering Labor Force"

An estimate (avg. of prior years) was used for 2006 computer-related H-1B awards 54,828, new data from the NSF indicates that 51% of 110,000 visas (over 56,100 H-1B visas) were computer related.

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations..."

"Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006 are in S&T occupations..."

[5] Source: Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division administrative data, special tabulations.

[6] Source: Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas (Detailed Breakdown), (Including Crewlist Visas and Border Crossing Cards), Fiscal Years 1989 - 2008*

[7] Source: DHS, Office of Inspector General, "Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program"

[8] Source: U.S. CITIZENSHIP AND IMMIGRATION SERVICES, "H-1B Benefit Fraud & Compliance Assessment"

[9] Source: National Science Foundation, "Chapter 3. Science and Engineering Labor Force"

[10] Source: TITLE I—AMERICAN COMPETITIVENESS IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Appendix A.

COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS DEFINED:

Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT)
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services
541511 Custom Computer Programming Services
541512 Computer Systems Design Services
541513 Computer Facilities Management Services
541519 Other Computer Related Services

Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC)
15-1011 Computer and Information Scientists, Research
15-1021 Computer Programmers
15-1031 Computer Software Engineers, Applications
15-1032 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
15-1041 Computer Support Specialists
15-1051 Computer Systems Analysts
15-1061 Database Administrators
15-1071 Network and Computer Systems Administrators
15-1081 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts
15-1099 Computer Specialists, All Other

Classification of Instructional Programs (NCES-CIP)
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General.
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics.
11.0103 Information Technology.
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General.
11.0202 Computer Programming, Specific Applications.
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification.
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician.
11.0401 Information Science/Studies.
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst.
11.0701 Computer Science.
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design.
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration.
11.0803 Computer Graphics.
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications.
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator.
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager.
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security.
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster.

What is a Union?

Now that you've read the title of this blog, clear your mind of everything that has comes to mind about Labor Unions. Some Labor Unions have become too powerful because they have been granted too much power by the membership.

The "bargaining scope" of a labor organization can be very limited, in fact, if you elected one "bargaining representative" to negotiate your health benefits and another "bargaining representative" to negotiate your salary, you would effectively belong to two Unions.

This blog-post asks the reader to consider an IT Professional Association (Union) with an extremely limited bargaining scope -- employment based immigration.

The term "Union" has become associated with entitlement, but other definitions are constructive.

Union:
Three piece fitting that joins two sections of pipe, but allows them to be disconnected without cutting the pipe.
www.thedrainsurgeon.com/terms.html

In computer science, a union is a data structure that stores one of several types of data at a single location. There are only two safe ways of accessing a union object. One is to always read the field of a union most recently assigned; tagged unions enforce this restriction.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_(computer_science)

Unions - A trade union or labour union is an organisation of workers who have banded together to achieve common goals in key areas such as wages, hours.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unions

The true problem, which should be addressed in the with the H-1B & L-1 nonimmigrant visas is that "5415 Computer Systems Design and Related Services" is oversubscirbed with nonimmigrant workers . One hundred percent of OES employment growth has been reserved to H-1B workers in this decade.

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer." National Science Foundation: "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008"

American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services
541511 Custom Computer Programming Services
541512 Computer Systems Design Services
541513 Computer Facilities Management Services
541519 Other Computer Related Services

Consider a Professional Association, that is instructed to become the "bargaining representative" to the for SOC Computer related occupations within the NAICS "Computer Systems Design and Related Services" Industry. The bargaining scope of this Professional Association would be the adherence to employment-based immigration law.

The benefit of having an immigration related bargaining unit is twofold, one the employer must notify the bargaining unit of its intention to hire an H-1B, and two there cannot be a strike or lockout when an LCA is filed.

20 CFR 655.733 - What is the third LCA requirement, regarding strikes and lockouts?

An employer seeking to employ H-1B nonimmigrants shall state on Form ETA 9035 or 9035 E that there is not at that time a strike or lockout in the course of a labor dispute in the occupational classification at the place of employment. A strike or lockout which occurs after the labor condition application is filed by the employer with DOL is covered by INS regulations at 8 CFR 214.2(h)(17).

(b) Documentation of the third labor condition statement. The employer need not develop nor maintain documentation to substantiate the statement referenced in paragraph (a) of this section. In the case of an investigation, however, the employer has the burden of proof to show that there was no strike or lockout in the course of a labor dispute for the occupational classification in which an H-1B nonimmigrant is employed, either at the time the application was filed or during the validity period of the LCA.

20 CFR 655.734 - What is the fourth LCA requirement, regarding notice

An employer seeking to employ H-1B nonimmigrants shall state on Form ETA 9035 or 9035E that the employer has provided notice of the filing of the labor condition application to the bargaining representative of the employer's employees in the occupational classification in which the H-1B nonimmigrants will be employed or are intended to be employed in the area of intended employment, or, if there is no such bargaining representative, has posted notice of filing in conspicuous locations in the employer's establishment(s) in the area of intended employment, in the manner described in this section.

Strikes, Lockouts & Picketing
When a trade union is unable to negotiate a collective agreement, they sometimes choose to strike an employer. A strike includes (1) a cessation of work, (2) a refusal to work, or (3) a refusal to continue to work, by two or more employees for the purpose of compelling their employer to agree to terms or conditions of employment.

Similarly, employers may choose to lockout their workers. A lockout includes (1) the closing of a place of employment by an employer, (2) the suspension of work by an employer, or (3) a refusal by an employer to continue to employ employees for the purpose of compelling employees to agree to terms of conditions of employment.

When the Professional Association has obtained legal status to represent the bulk of workers within the NAICS "Computer Systems Design and Related Services" Industry and SOC "COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS", we can petition the DOL and USCIS for H-1B occupational data and prove the visa oversubscription. The next step is to petition the government to remove the occupational Computer related occupations group from the list of H-1B occupations.


Appendix 2
THREE-DIGIT OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS
PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICAL, AND MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS
AND FASHION MODELS


COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

http://www.doleta.gov/regions/REG05/Documents/eta-9035.pdf

The power (and funding) for an American IT Professional Association, would come from injecting itself into the recruiting process. Providing information services to American IT Professionals and creating lists of preferred recruiters that support our positions. These recruiters would fund and profit from the Association.

The out of pocket costs to the American IT Professional, would simply be to use the Associations resources as exclusively as is prudent -- and contribute intellectually to the promotion of the profession. More on this later.