Something to Teaparty about.

Current U.S. employment growth is below the levels of the 1950's -- not just in percentages -- in real numbers.

Employment growth when divided by Population growth, to create a percentage statistic, is a meager 19.57%. This means that there has only been one job created for every five persons (16 and older) entering the workforce since Dec. 31, 1999.

How can we bring in over one million legal immigrants per year, if we can't create enough jobs to employ our own children? If this isn't a depression, the government seems hell-bent to create one.

The reason we Teaparty is because our Representatives appear to represent citizens of other countries and Global Corporate Citizens.

1950's
Population Growth = 11,516,000
Employment Growth = 7,215,000 (62.65%)

1960's
Population Growth = 19,449,000
Employment Growth = 13,862,000 (71.27%)

1970's
Population Growth = 30,811,000 (Depression in Mexico)
Employment Growth = 21,224,000 (68.88%)

1980's
Population Growth = 20,865,000
Employment Growth = 17,685,000 (84.76%)

1990's
Population Growth = 21,667,000
Employment Growth = 16,998,000 (78.45%)

2000's (Mar. 2009)
Population Growth = 26,254,000
Employment Growth = 5,137,000 (19.57%)

Avg for previous 1950'- 1990's = (73.20%)
Avg. employment growth for 2000's should/would have been: = 19,218,994

Employment Shortfall 2000-2009 (March) = 14,081,994

Source Data:
BLS CPS Downloaded on 4/20/2009
http://www.bls.gov/data/

Formula: Each decade represents EOY Dec XXX9 to EOY Dec XXX9
Example: Decade of 1950's = Dec 1949 to Dec. 1959.

Series Id: LNU00000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level
Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population
Age: 16 years and over

Series Id: LNU02000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Age: 16 years and over

Petition to remove Computer-related occupations from employment based immigration

Problems, are sometimes not resolved to the lowest common denominator. The glaring problem in high-skill temporary immigration, is not the H-1B and L-1 programs, it is the gross over-subscription of H-1B and L-1 nonimmigrants in the "Computer-related occupations." One solution is to decertify Computer-related occupations from the DOJ list of "Specialty occupations."

A National Science foundation report shows that in 2006, 51% of all 113,593 H-1B visas granted were to Computer-related occupations. [57,932 visas]
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/fig03-62.htm

Here is what the law says about employment related immigration.

U.S. Code Collection
TITLE 8 > CHAPTER 12 > SUBCHAPTER II
> Part II > § 1182
§ 1182. Inadmissible aliens

(5) Labor certification and qualifications for certain immigrants
(A) Labor certification

(i) In general Any alien who seeks to enter the United States for the purpose of performing skilled or unskilled labor is inadmissible, unless the Secretary of Labor has determined and certified to the Secretary of State and the Attorney General that—

(I) there are not sufficient workers who are able, willing, qualified (or equally qualified in the case of an alien described in clause (ii)) and available at the time of application for a visa and admission to the United States and at the place where the alien is to perform such skilled or unskilled labor, and

(II) the employment of such alien will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed. (ii) Certain aliens subject to special rule For purposes of clause (i)

(I), an alien described in this clause is an alien who—
(I) is a member of the teaching profession, or
(II) has exceptional ability in the sciences or the arts.
(iii) Professional athletes
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/uscode08/usc_sec_08_00001182----000-.html

First, we see that employment based immigration is the exception rather than the rule. Immigration "for the purpose of performing skilled or unskilled labor is inadmissible..." the exception is where the Secretary of Labor has certified insufficient workers at the time and place, but "the employment of such alien will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed." The current list of DOL certified occupations in "sciences or the arts" are generally called "Specialty Occupations. " The list of specialty occupations can be found on Form ETA-9035.

The occupational over-subscription is in the DOT defined, "Computer-Related Occupations."

COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS
[Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT)]
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

Over-subscription data comes the discontinued USCIS "H-1B Characteristics reports" from 2000-2005.[1] H-1B statistics for the (DOT) Computer-related occupations, are synonymous with the BLS - OES, "SOC" 15-1000 Computer Specialists. http://www.bls.gov/soc/soc_c0a0.htm

Guestworker over-subscription in Computer-related occupations.
From 2000-2006, employment growth (BLS-OES) in the (SOC) 15-1000 Computer Specialists, was 326,600. [2]

The National Science Foundation reports that 310,749 B.S. Computer Science degrees were granted to Americans from 2000 - 2006, with an additional 26,533 BS-CS awarded to temporary residents. [3] Domestic BS-CS degree production of 337,282 awards, exceeded "(SOC) 15-1000 Computer Specialist" employment growth of 326,600.

During a shorter period, 2001-2006, reflecting the six year H-1B duration, 328,968 H-1B visas were granted to "initial employment approvals" for Computer related occupations.[1][4] Computer-related occupations, H-1B initial employment approvals, also exceeded employment growth.

Factoid: 2000 to 2005 [1]
Computer related H-1B "Initial employment approvals = 348,691
Computer related H-1B "Continuing employment approvals = 390,506

Narrowing the scope to the 2000-02 recession, [2] the BLS-OES occupational statistics show an employment decline of 134,960 in Computer-related occupations, during 2001 (110,712) and 2002 (25,637) H-1B awards were added to the occupational group. Employment for H-1B is reserved as a condition of entry, therefore, the decline in the occupation and new H-1B are additive, bringing the job losses to 271,309.

The H-1B is only one of the high-skill non-immigrant visa program that has "...adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed." There are many high-skill nonimmigrant visa categories, the "O", "H-1", "L-1" and "TN" visas are all employment based temporary visas.[5] that can include Computer-related occupations.

High-skill temporary visas (H-1B, L-1,H-3, O-1, O-2, TN) [5]
1998 = 136,000
1999 = 165,930
2000 = 197,520
2001 = 230,400
2002 = 184,770
2003 = 165,430
2004 = 213,020
2005 = 203,320
2006= 224,060

Again, 271,309 workers were permanently displaced by the glut in computer-related H-1B awards, another 310,749 American BS-CS graduates entered the workforce. As a condition of employment, H-1B must have an employment offer, so 582,058 high skill workers were shut out of the Computer-related occupations. Additionally, 430,084 L-1 Intracompany visas were issued during the 2000-2006 period.[6] There are no statistics available to prove the L-1 subscription levels for Computer-related, but the OIG made the following statement:

"From 1999 to 2004, nine of the ten firms that petitioned for the most L-1 workers were computer and IT related outsourcing service firms that specialize in labor from India." [7]

Fraud estimate in Computer-related immigration:
The USCIS recently found a 31% violation/fraud rate in H-1Bs with Bachelor's degrees as the highest level of education.[8] Bachelor's degreed H-1B recipients are higly concentrated in Computer-related occupations. The NSF reports that roughly 47,300 of all new H-1Bs in 2006 did not have advanced degrees, in Computer-related occupations, 35,904 did not have advanced degrees (postgrad). 75.9% of all H-1Bs withless than a postgraduate degree were granted to Computer-related occupations in 2006.[9]

The most popular H-1B occupation also experienced the fourth highest rate of fraudulent conduct - computer-related occupations accounted for 42% (104 cases) of the sample. Among this sample, 27% (28 cases) were associated with some type of fraud or technical violation(s).[8]

Additionally, due to the AC21, H-1B and L-1 portability provisions,[10] it is reasonable to assume that similar violation/fraud rates exist in the Employment based green card PERM system, which is currently experiencing a backlog 500,000 applicants.

Overall, we estimate that the number of employment based principals (in the three main employment visa categories—EB1, EB2, and EB3) waiting for legalpermanent residence in the United States in 2006 was 500,040.
http://www.cggc.duke.edu/documents/IntellectualProperty_theImmigrationBacklog_andaReverseBrainDrain_003.pdf

America's high skill immigration policy has been completely insensitive to changing market conditions, even when employment creation has gone negative, America continues to import skilled workers without regard to available data. Other countries, such as Australia adjust their immigration intake by occupation.

"The economic circumstances in Australia have changed as a result of the global financial crisis," Senator Evans said. "It is prudent to reduce this year's migration intake accordingly."

The cuts will be coupled with deletions to the critical skills list,which specifies which jobs are open to migrants.

Senator Evans said Australia needs a more targeted list "so that migrant workers are meeting skills shortages and not competing with locals for jobs".
Government to cut immigration intake, 16 March 2009

Fortunately, Elaine Chao is no longer the Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis has been sworn in, she has publicly stated that she is interested in reviewing the H-1B and other non-immigrant employment programs. http://www.dol.gov/_sec/welcome.htm

I suggest that we call the DOL (Telephone: 1-866-4-USA-DOL (1-866-487-2365)) or email ExecutiveSecretariat@dol.gov and ask that Ms. Solis decertify "Computer-related Occupations" from the H-1B, L-1 OPT and EB-3 employment based visa programs.

The definition of Computer-related Occupations would include:
(DOT) "Computer Related Occupations"
(SOC) "15-1000 Computer Specialists"
(NCES - CIP) COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCES AND SUPPORT SERVICES

And the occupations listed under the following NAICS Industries:
54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services
541511 Custom Computer Programming Services
541512 Computer Systems Design Services
541513 Computer Facilities Management Services
541519 Other Computer Related Services

References:
[1] Source: USCIS
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2000
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2001
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2002
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2003
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2004
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2005

[2] Source: Occupational Employment Statistics
15-1000 Computer Specialists Employment May 2000 = 2,642,910
15-1000 Computer Specialists Employment May 2006 = 2,969,510
Employment growth = 326,600

[3] Source: National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics, special tabulations of U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Completions Survey, 1997–2006.

[4] Source: National Science Foundation
"Chapter 3. Science and Engineering Labor Force"

An estimate (avg. of prior years) was used for 2006 computer-related H-1B awards 54,828, new data from the NSF indicates that 51% of 110,000 visas (over 56,100 H-1B visas) were computer related.

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations..."

"Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006 are in S&T occupations..."

[5] Source: Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division administrative data, special tabulations.

[6] Source: Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas (Detailed Breakdown), (Including Crewlist Visas and Border Crossing Cards), Fiscal Years 1989 - 2008*

[7] Source: DHS, Office of Inspector General, "Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program"

[8] Source: U.S. CITIZENSHIP AND IMMIGRATION SERVICES, "H-1B Benefit Fraud & Compliance Assessment"

[9] Source: National Science Foundation, "Chapter 3. Science and Engineering Labor Force"

[10] Source: TITLE I—AMERICAN COMPETITIVENESS IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Appendix A.

COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS DEFINED:

Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT)
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services
541511 Custom Computer Programming Services
541512 Computer Systems Design Services
541513 Computer Facilities Management Services
541519 Other Computer Related Services

Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC)
15-1011 Computer and Information Scientists, Research
15-1021 Computer Programmers
15-1031 Computer Software Engineers, Applications
15-1032 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
15-1041 Computer Support Specialists
15-1051 Computer Systems Analysts
15-1061 Database Administrators
15-1071 Network and Computer Systems Administrators
15-1081 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts
15-1099 Computer Specialists, All Other

Classification of Instructional Programs (NCES-CIP)
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General.
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics.
11.0103 Information Technology.
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General.
11.0202 Computer Programming, Specific Applications.
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification.
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician.
11.0401 Information Science/Studies.
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst.
11.0701 Computer Science.
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design.
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration.
11.0803 Computer Graphics.
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications.
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator.
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager.
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security.
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster.

What is a Union?

Now that you've read the title of this blog, clear your mind of everything that has comes to mind about Labor Unions. Some Labor Unions have become too powerful because they have been granted too much power by the membership.

The "bargaining scope" of a labor organization can be very limited, in fact, if you elected one "bargaining representative" to negotiate your health benefits and another "bargaining representative" to negotiate your salary, you would effectively belong to two Unions.

This blog-post asks the reader to consider an IT Professional Association (Union) with an extremely limited bargaining scope -- employment based immigration.

The term "Union" has become associated with entitlement, but other definitions are constructive.

Union:
Three piece fitting that joins two sections of pipe, but allows them to be disconnected without cutting the pipe.
www.thedrainsurgeon.com/terms.html

In computer science, a union is a data structure that stores one of several types of data at a single location. There are only two safe ways of accessing a union object. One is to always read the field of a union most recently assigned; tagged unions enforce this restriction.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_(computer_science)

Unions - A trade union or labour union is an organisation of workers who have banded together to achieve common goals in key areas such as wages, hours.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unions

The true problem, which should be addressed in the with the H-1B & L-1 nonimmigrant visas is that "5415 Computer Systems Design and Related Services" is oversubscirbed with nonimmigrant workers . One hundred percent of OES employment growth has been reserved to H-1B workers in this decade.

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer." National Science Foundation: "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008"

American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services
541511 Custom Computer Programming Services
541512 Computer Systems Design Services
541513 Computer Facilities Management Services
541519 Other Computer Related Services

Consider a Professional Association, that is instructed to become the "bargaining representative" to the for SOC Computer related occupations within the NAICS "Computer Systems Design and Related Services" Industry. The bargaining scope of this Professional Association would be the adherence to employment-based immigration law.

The benefit of having an immigration related bargaining unit is twofold, one the employer must notify the bargaining unit of its intention to hire an H-1B, and two there cannot be a strike or lockout when an LCA is filed.

20 CFR 655.733 - What is the third LCA requirement, regarding strikes and lockouts?

An employer seeking to employ H-1B nonimmigrants shall state on Form ETA 9035 or 9035 E that there is not at that time a strike or lockout in the course of a labor dispute in the occupational classification at the place of employment. A strike or lockout which occurs after the labor condition application is filed by the employer with DOL is covered by INS regulations at 8 CFR 214.2(h)(17).

(b) Documentation of the third labor condition statement. The employer need not develop nor maintain documentation to substantiate the statement referenced in paragraph (a) of this section. In the case of an investigation, however, the employer has the burden of proof to show that there was no strike or lockout in the course of a labor dispute for the occupational classification in which an H-1B nonimmigrant is employed, either at the time the application was filed or during the validity period of the LCA.

20 CFR 655.734 - What is the fourth LCA requirement, regarding notice

An employer seeking to employ H-1B nonimmigrants shall state on Form ETA 9035 or 9035E that the employer has provided notice of the filing of the labor condition application to the bargaining representative of the employer's employees in the occupational classification in which the H-1B nonimmigrants will be employed or are intended to be employed in the area of intended employment, or, if there is no such bargaining representative, has posted notice of filing in conspicuous locations in the employer's establishment(s) in the area of intended employment, in the manner described in this section.

Strikes, Lockouts & Picketing
When a trade union is unable to negotiate a collective agreement, they sometimes choose to strike an employer. A strike includes (1) a cessation of work, (2) a refusal to work, or (3) a refusal to continue to work, by two or more employees for the purpose of compelling their employer to agree to terms or conditions of employment.

Similarly, employers may choose to lockout their workers. A lockout includes (1) the closing of a place of employment by an employer, (2) the suspension of work by an employer, or (3) a refusal by an employer to continue to employ employees for the purpose of compelling employees to agree to terms of conditions of employment.

When the Professional Association has obtained legal status to represent the bulk of workers within the NAICS "Computer Systems Design and Related Services" Industry and SOC "COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS", we can petition the DOL and USCIS for H-1B occupational data and prove the visa oversubscription. The next step is to petition the government to remove the occupational Computer related occupations group from the list of H-1B occupations.


Appendix 2
THREE-DIGIT OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS
PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICAL, AND MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS
AND FASHION MODELS


COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS
030 OCCUPATIONS IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMMING
031 OCCUPATIONS IN DATA COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKS
032 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM USER SUPPORT
033 OCCUPATIONS IN COMPUTER SYSTEM TECHNICAL SUPPORT
039 OTHER COMPUTER-RELATED OCCUPATIONS

http://www.doleta.gov/regions/REG05/Documents/eta-9035.pdf

The power (and funding) for an American IT Professional Association, would come from injecting itself into the recruiting process. Providing information services to American IT Professionals and creating lists of preferred recruiters that support our positions. These recruiters would fund and profit from the Association.

The out of pocket costs to the American IT Professional, would simply be to use the Associations resources as exclusively as is prudent -- and contribute intellectually to the promotion of the profession. More on this later.

Mortgage Meltdown -- Housing Inflation - Immigration

I've brought up some thoughts and data in postings here linking the causes of the
mortgage-meltdown to excessive immigration. Our government is in complete immigration denial and the two topics, housing and immigration, are never uttered in the same breath.

Raising the stakes in the financial debate would be the linking of mass-immigration to housing inflation and the ensuing mortgage meltdown. Linking these topics is not a hard thing to do. The final stages of desperation, is the importation of highly skilled labor -- the H-1B and L-1 visa -- these are mercenary workers who are most likely to displace a wage-earner with a performing mortgage.

The first step for curing the disease of mass-immigration is admitting you have a problem. In the decades leading up to the Great Depression, the economy was also "shocked" with mass-immigration.

Pre Great Depression Immigration rates:
1821-1830 143,439 immigrants arrive.
1831-1840 599,125 immigrants arrive.
1841-1850 1,713,251 immigrants arrive.
1851-1860 2,598,214 immigrants arrive.
1861-1870 2,314,825 immigrants arrive.
1871-1880 2,812,191 immigrants arrive.
1881-1890 5,246,613 immigrants arrive.
1891-1900 3,687,564 immigrants arrive.

Pre 1900 Total 19,115,132 (80 years)


1901-1910 8,795,386 immigrants arrive.
1911-1920 5,735,811 immigrants arrive.
1921-1930 4,107,209 immigrants arrive.
1931-1940 532,431 immigrants arrive.

Post 1900 Total 19,170,840 (40 years)

http://ocp.hul.harvard.edu/immigration/dates.html


To illustrate how important housing is to the economy, home ownership rates declined only 4.2% during the Great Depression (47.8% in 1930, to 43.6% in 1940).
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/owner.html

Currently, home ownership rates have already declined 1.7% in 4 years, (69.2% 4th Qtr. 2004, to 67.5% in the 4th Qtr. 2008).
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/files/histtab14.xls


Next we look at the housing availability in recent times.

Percent Change in House Prices Period Ended June 30, 2007
(United States) Since 1980 = 309.4%
http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/2q07hpi.pdf


Then, we have the tiny Rental Housing growth compared to growth in the labor force.
1993 through 2007

Growth Rental Housing (Occupied Plus Vacant for rent) = 1,002,000
BLS Growth Civ NonInstitutionalized Labor Force (16 and over) = 39,372,000
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/files/histtab7.xls

Our immigration policy has tried to cram 39 people (immigrants and our children) into each new rental housing unit in 15 a year period -- it is no wonder the housing market hyper-inflated. The flattening of wages and the ever declining population of wage-earners who could qualify for a traditional Prime mortgage caused the banking industry to create EZ and No-Doc loans out of self-preservation -- these mortgages were repackages and sold to unsuspecting foreigners -- they didn't become toxic assets, they were always toxic, the banks refused to hold them.

Housing data from Harvard displays the decline of the qualified mortgage customers.

Data from: Table A-1. Income and Housing Costs, US Totals: 1975-2007
In 2007 Dollars.

Increase Home Owner income = 13%
Increase in Home Price = 74%

Even with lower interest rates, the after tax mortgage payment is 49% higher than 1975.

Increase in renter income = (-3%)
Increase in Renter cost gross rent = 10%

http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/markets/son2008/son2008_appendix_tables.xls

The solution:

The key is to present a solution that make financial sense, especially to banks and investors, taking into account ALL of the causes of the problem.

First, control immigration and reduce the numbers of new immigrants until "dryfoot" illegal immigrants and guest-workers can be investigated and brought into some sort of naturalized status -- frauds and criminals deported. The honorable migrants already have jobs and housing and cannot damage the economy as much as newly arriving immigrants who shock the economy with wage declines.

Second, "Nationalism" of banks and creation of a "Bad Bank" to hold toxic assets are both incorrect terminology. In the Insurance Industry, a temporary "nationalization" is called a Conservation and the "Bad Bank" is called a Trust.

The so called Toxic Assets have not matured yet, even if though some are in default. MBS and CDO investments are largely long term investments and the capital is only lost when the asset is liquidated in a foreclosure sale.

If we are to allow a Conservation of these MBS/CDO investments, to conserve the paper value of the capital investment, we need time for the assets to recover in value. Nationalization and bailouts are undesirable. A Conservation is a favor to the investor and the banker, the rules are suspended to preserve the paper capital, but in return for this favor they must agree to our terms. The alternative is that we can simply allow Mark to Market rules devalue the paper value of the capital investment.

The liquidity problem is the absence of the circulation of currency, with this in mind, mortgage workouts and cramdowns should be negotiated to the traditional 30% income level. Lender who wish to remain predatory mortgage providers should be punished, unprotected in the open market. In the case that the house is foreclosed, and standing empty, it must be introduced into the rental housing market to generate dividends for the MBS/CDO investor and property taxes paid. The homes must be occupied and productive to be included in the Conservation.

The circulation of currency is the key to our fractional reserve banking system, we must somehow generate currency flow in order to put the 1 to 9 leveraged lending rations back to work.

There were 35,147,000 renters in the U.S. in 2007. Flooding the rental housing market with currently vacant homes would reduce the housing costs of renters. A $200.00 savings in rental cost per renter would inject $7,029,400,000.00 per month of disposable income into the consumer markets without a wage increase. Some of the $7 billion monthly would circulate through the banks and improve lending reserves at the $1 to $9 fractional reserve leveraged rate. Theoretically, this $7 billion could be leveraged to $63 billion per month.

Similarly, cramdowns will also generate billions of dollars in disposable income and stimulate our fractional reserve lending system by the circulation of currency. Stable housing costs will stabilize labor costs -- the temptation to move overseas will be reduced -- keeping housing costs affordable in the U.S. is the key to global competitiveness.

Final note:
I suspect that both the immigration oversubscription and the property valuation problem will take about a decade to recover. The MBS/CDO investors are going to have to be patient if they want to preserve their capital. If we publicly provide a comprehensive solution that addresses immigration, I think they will be patient.

Memo to Lou Dobbs -- Fixing Immigration

Mr. Dobbs,

Lou, let's fix immigration, so those movie-stars can quit picking on you. I believe that this proposal is a fair compromise for most interested parties.

Immigration is a lot like borrowing... borrowing against future job growth and future housing growth. The banks now realize that America has borrowed too much.

Overview:

Virtually all of U.S. immigration is financially motivated. The presence of 20 million illegal immigrants has financially destroyed the blue-collar workforce. Temporary worker programs are now destroying white-collar workforce, who have an even higher likelihood of servicing a mortgage. To address the plight of the all residents, legal and illegal, in a financially responsible manner, we must borrow against future immigration quotas to selectively adjust the status of illegal aliens who will help us destroy the job magnet.

Reserving future visas to adjust the status of those persons already here: The reduction in future new-arrival immigration will help the blue collar worker. Business related immigration must also be conducted in a fiscally responsible manner, business related immigration (temp. and perm.) must be performance based and limited to a small percentage of the prior year's employment growth. (Performance based business immigration quotas would discourage offshoring.)

Our global competitiveness issues are imposed upon us by our inflated housing costs. Inflated housing costs inflate salary requirement and the tax burden on higher salary, the result is the movement of existing jobs overseas. The government's attempts to place a floor under U.S. housing valuation is destroying the world's economic engine.

Fixing Illegal Immigration:

Fixing the job magnet is as simple as allowing illegal immigrants to testify against illegal employers in exchange for documentation. The recent sting operation against Boston Port Director, Lorraine Henderson, is an example of the long term solution to the job magnet. Witness testimony against illegal employers will forever fix the job magnet, if there are substantial penalties for the employer and reward for the employee. I would suggest an IRS audit to discover and retroactively recover illegally deducted wage expenses -- i.e. wages paid to undocumented aliens should be taxed as profit. A simple civil action -- no proof of foreknowledge required.

Perhaps, a short amnesty period for illegal employers who turn themselves in promptly, but after that, let the ACLU and U.S. Chamber of Commerce argue the fairness of recovering back taxes with the IRS.

Illegal employers have home addresses and assets to seize, why do we chase nomadic workers all over the countryside? With enforcement directed at the illegal employer, opportunities will dry up, those illegal immigrants without an employer to violate, will self-deport. Those who help with these prosecutions are the hard working migrants we want to keep.

The impact of mass-immigration is hyper-inflation in housing, 309.4% (1980 to 2007) and flat wages. America can not sustain this rate of inflation because the American salary-requirement and tax burden becomes globally uncompetitive and jobs move offshore.

To avoid more immigration driven, hyper-inflation in the housing market, we must borrow against future (non-business) immigration visa quotas to normalize the status of the otherwise law abiding illegal immigrants. (Selected by their willingness to participate.) Eventually, these migrant's (citizen) children will become of age to sponsor the parent(s) for citizenship. The end result is identical, with the exception of housing equity they might have attained (a hedge against rental inflation) to help them in their old age.

Growth from immigration would be cut in half. Counting 50% of the visas granted annually, to those already in our country, would address America's declining job growth problem and undocumented resident problem at the same time.

Its most-recent-year data show that the U.S. granted:
• 744,531 permanent green cards to working-age adults ages 20-64, and
• 912,735 new employment authorization documents to temporary foreign workers.
Source: NumbersUSA

Addressing our immigration policy will instill confidence within the banking systems, indicating that we are not interested in risking America's hard assets (and economic meltdown) in 'bubble' economic scams.

Fixing Employment Based Immigration:

High skill, employment based immigrants are the most likely group to displace an American worker with a performing mortgage. If my understanding of the fractional reserve banking system is accurate, foreclosures in a declining market are exponentially harmful to the lending reserve ratio.

Employment based immigration (non-immigrant and immigrant) must have floating caps that are relational to employment growth. Some small percentage of the prior year's employment growth would become the employment based visa cap for the following year.

However, we can't allow 100% of the employment growth in the STEM occupations to be awarded to foreign nationals with loyalties lying elsewhere. The employment based immigration caps must be a percentage of prior employment growth in the individual occupations.

Instead of a lottery for visa awards, the highest salary offers, within each occupation would "win" these scarce visas. Additionally, this plan would discourage employers from sending jobs offshore -- if they are interested in obtaining employment based visas in the coming year. Occupations with no employment growth in the prior period would be "closed" to new immigration and temporary worker renewals.

Finally, dual-intent, non-immigrant visas (H-1B & L-1), have removed the requirement for the non-immigrant to maintain a foreign residence. This also removes the requirement for the employer to offer a travel and housing Per-Diem, or relocation expenses.

Without a home to return to, the non-immigrant is at a disadvantage and is financially motivated to apply for citizenship if she doesn't want to abandon her possessions. Additionally, the travel and housing Per-Diem stimulates the local service and hospitality industries. The foreign residence requirement assures property equity levels are sustained in the donor country.

Banking and Housing:

The banking industry pulled the plug on the economy precisely when it became apparent that the CIR (Comprehensive Immigration Reform) would fail for the second time. Confidence in Mortgage Backed Securities evaporated at the moment America refused to double the intake of legal immigrants. Banks and investors well understood that immigration was driving housing inflation and took corrective action immediately. America must take the fiscally responsible corrective action, in light of the 30% decline in employment growth over population growth in this decade.

To illustrate how important housing is to the economy, the home ownership rates declined only 4.2 % during the Great Depression (47.8% in 1930, to 43.6% in 1940).

Currently, home ownership rates have already declined 1.1% in 2 years, (69% 3rd Qtr. 2006, to 67.9% in the 3rd Qtr. 2008).

The basis of capitalism is private ownership, free trade was an afterthought. Home ownership is the wage earner's hedge against rental-housing inflation and is also a hedge against an undignified retirement.

Historic: Home ownership rates -- Graph:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/hograph.html

Historic: Home ownership rates --Tables:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/owner.html

Current: Home ownership rates -- Table (excel)
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/files/histtab14.xls

BLS lays a big fat egg

I thought this was interesting enough for a new thread, it looks like the gvt. is pretty desperate to not show the unemployment spike in the educated workforce.

The data is BLS_CPS (unadj) age 25 and over, by educational attainment levels.

Formula: Dec. 2008 levels (subtract) Oct 2008 levels to determine the change.

Change in Employment Levels = -1,814,000

College Grad or Higher = -638,000
Less than Bachelors = -389,000
HS No College = -499,000
No HS Diploma = -288,000

Change in Unemployment Level = 555,000

Where did 1,259,000 people go? Did the population decline? No!

Change in Civilian noninstitutional population = 377,000

College Grad or Higher = -498,000
Less than Bachelors = -67,000
HS No College = 478,000
No HS Diploma = 465,000

How do we lose 498,000 college grads and higher and 67,000 "some college less than bachelors degree" -- 26,000 of these are Associate degrees.Keep in mind that Oct.1 was H-1B day, and in 2006, there were 113,000 new H-1B visas issued.

Change in educational classifications:

HS No College (Plus) No HS Diploma = 943,000
Subtract Growth in NonInst Civ Population = (377,000)
Total = 566,000

College Grad or Higher = -498,000
Less than Bachelors = -67,000
Total = -565,000

If you will grant me the rounding error of 1000 persons (see: Footnotes on the data below), it sure looks like over a half million people from the "educated" classifications were moved to No college/No High School diploma classifications. But again, where did the 1.29 million people go?

The BLS doesn't offer a "Not In the Labor Force" (NILF) query for age 25 and older, but it's an easy calculation. The problem is that if the BLS reclassified the degree holders, there is no sense in breaking it (the NILF) down by educational level.

Not In the Labor Force (NILF):

October 2008
Civ NonInst Population = 197,044,000
Subtract Employed = (126,786,000)
Subtract Unemployed = (6,627,000)

Oct. Not in the Labor Force = 63,631,000

December 2008
Civ NonInst Population = 197,421,000
Subtract Employed = 124,972,000
Subtract Unemployed = 7,182,000

Dec. Not In the Labor Force = 65,267,000

Change in Not In the Labor Force = 1,636,000
Subtract growth in Population = (377,000)
Total = 1,259,000

There's the missing persons who didn't make it to the Unemployment statistic. No, it wasn't guestworkers leaving the country.

Footnotes on the data:
The Educational Attainment classifications, "Some college, no degree" and "Associate degree" are combined in the category, "Less than a Bachelor's degree." In order to reconcile the Educational Attainment classifications with total "NonInstitutionalized Civilian Population" the parent category "Less than a Bachelor's degree" was used and displayed a rounding error in December.

December 2008
NonInstitutionalized Civilian Population = 197,421,000

College graduates (bachelor's or higher) = 58,005,000
Less than Bachelor's degree = 51,422,000
High School graduates, no college = 61,898,000
Less than a high school diploma = 26,097,000

Total of educational classifications for Dec. = 197,422,000

The totals of the Educational attainment categories did not reconcile
in December, but reconciled excatly in October.

October 2008
NonInstitutionalized Civilian Population = 197,044,000

College Grad or Higher = 58,503,000
Less than Bachelor's degree = 51,489,000
High School graduates, no college = 61,420,000
Less than a high school diploma = 25,632,000
Total of educational classifications for Oct. = 197,044,000

Source:
downloaded on 1/12/2009
Unadjusted series, age 25 and over by educational attainment.
http://www.bls.gov/data (Current Population Survey)

NonInstitutionalized Civilian Population
College graduates (bachelor's or higher)
Less than Bachelor's degree
High School graduates, no college
Less than a high school diploma

Baby Boomers vs Immigration Boomers

Most of us have read about the baby boomer issue and how importing immigrant labor is being used to offset shortages in Social Security funding.

"80 million baby boomers will be retiring in the next 20 years."

The graph below, displays the adult immigration rate per age group from the BLS Non Institutionalized Civilian Workforce statistics. The baseline is the 25 to 34 year old group, always 100%, there can be no births in this age-group, all increases must be from immigration. The 'x' axis is the year of birth, 100% represents the year that the individual became 25 years of age. (The 'x' axis ends in 1972 because we've run out of 35 year old persons to make a comparison.)

In the 35 to 44 year old age group, the population's percentage increase is displayed in the group, again by year of birth. We can see elevated immigration rates in the Depression, World War II and the bubble economics era.

The alarming portion of the 35 to 44 year old age group is the extremely high immigration rate in recent times.

In the 45 to 54 year old age-group, we see some departures, deaths or a combination of both. These workers will likely remain in the U.S. to collect Social Security. (The 45 to 54 age groups runs out of data because individuals with this year of birth have not yet attained this age.)


Click on image to enlarge:

For completeness I've included the Census Birth rates.




And the U.S. death rates by age group.