Sunday, July 24, 2016

Working Age Employment Levels Still Below 1999 Levels.

Working Age Employment Levels Still Below 1999 Levels.

Dismal Employment Outlook for Ages 25 to 54


Subjects: employment, unemployment, working age, labor statistic

Employment levels

Employment levels for this age group (25 to 54) are still below the levels attained in 1999 (-586,000).

Population

Lower employment can't be attributed to baby-boomer retirement, this population has grown by about 5.5 million.


Employment to population ratio

The drop in the employment to population ratio, is about 4%.



Unemployment rate

Somehow, with negative job growth, we have arrived at a similar unemployment rate (3.1%  in 1999 vs 4.0% in June 2016).


Labor force with Employment levels

The labor force is the combination of the employed plus the unemployed.

In the chart below, the delta between the two charted lines is the number of working age unemployed. In December of 2007, the labor force was 104,694,000, in June of 2016, the labor force is 102,025,000. The population has largely recovered since December 2007,  but 2.7 million persons have left the labor force.


Working Age Employment Levels Still Below 1999 Levels.

Working Age Employment Levels Still Below 1999 Levels.

Dismal Employment Outlook for Ages 25 to 54


Subjects: employment, unemployment, working age, labor statistic

Employment levels

Employment levels for this age group (25 to 54) are still below the levels attained in 1999 (-586,000).

Population

Lower employment can't be attributed to baby-boomer retirement, this population has grown by about 5.5 million.


Employment to population ratio

The drop in the employment to population ratio, is about 4%.



Unemployment rate

Somehow, with negative job growth, we have arrived at a similar unemployment rate (3.1%  in 1999 vs 4.0% in June 2016).


Labor force with Employment levels

The labor force is the combination of the employed plus the unemployed.

In the chart below, the delta between the two charted lines is the number of working age unemployed. In December of 2007, the labor force was 104,694,000, in June of 2016, the labor force is 102,025,000. The population has largely recovered since December 2007,  2.7 million persons have left the labor force.


Saturday, May 21, 2016

How many H-1B in the United States?

How many H-1B in the United States?

More than the experts have estimated


Subjects: H-1B, Michelle Malkin, Center for Immigration Studies

At about 13:00 mmss Malkin looks to the panel for confirmation that 650,000 H-1B are in the country.  The USCIS reports indicate the number is much closer to 1.6 million.

H-1B Filed
2010 =  247,617
2011 =  267,654
2012 =  307,713
2013 =  299,467
2014 =  318,824
2015 =  348,669

Total = 1,789,944

H-1B Approved  and approval rate
2010 =  192,990 77.94%
2011 =  269,653 100.75%
2012 =  262,569 85.33%
2013 =  286,773 95.76%
2014 =  315,857 99.07%
2015 =  275,317 78.96%

Total = 1,603,159 89.56%

Source data: USCIS Program Reports: H-1B & H-2B
https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/reports-and-studies

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Immigration Moratorium: Chapter 2

  Immigration Moratorium

Chapter 2: Expected Useful Lifetime of STEM Degree

 

1 million new STEM jobs projected by 2022, 5.9 million new American graduates will apply for them.




Subjects: Immigration moratorium, STEM, Employment, Education, temporary visa

Source data by NSF/NCES
In the previous post, we found that domestic (citizen and permanent resident) bachelor's degree production is more than adequately meeting employment growth published by the BLS. Even with an additional 22 months (2014-Oct. 2015) of employment growth beyond the college degree data period (2000-13), there would still be 6.42% slack (not employed) in the college educated population.

For this post we are looking at STEM degree production, on the domestic side (citizens and permanent residents), for the fourteen years of data  we have 4,945,112 STEM bachelor's and 3,311,070 associate's degrees conferred, for a total of 8,256,182.  Without factoring in any immigration and considering the STEM sector employment level for 2014 below, domestic degree production can replace the entire STEM employment market in a little over 15 years. Most of these graduates need 40 years of employment to reach their retirement age.
There were over 8.3 million STEM jobs in May 2014, representing about 6.2 percent of total U.S. employment. Seven of the 10 largest STEM occupations were related to computers. These occupations included applications software developers, with employment of 686,470; computer user support specialists (563,540); and computer systems analysts (528,320). Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives of technical and scientific products (335,540) was the largest STEM occupation that was not specifically computer related. Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ocwage.pdf
The BLS 2014 projection for STEM employment is that STEM employment "...is projected to grow to more than 9 million between 2012 and 2022. That’s an increase of about 1 million jobs over 2012 employment levels." [PDF]  However, from averages taken from the table below,  the STEM bachelor's degrees will be conferred will be 3.53 million and the associate’s degrees will be another 2.37 million over ten years.  Basically, there are 5.9 million (citizen and permanent resident) students in the pipeline for an employment growth projection of 1 million jobs.

The following educational sectors are adhock and do not represent the exact degrees in the paragraph above, but with the disparity in numbers, all we need is common horse-sense to support an immigration moratorium.

Citizenship (standardized): U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents 2000-2013 Bachelor's Associate's
01 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences 206,762 69,513
02 Agricultural Sciences 901 163
04 Architecture and Related Services 125,605 7,057
10 Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services 46,313 52,801
11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services 612,641 474,940
14 Engineering 902,298 32,648
15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields 207,083 499,185
25 Library Science 1,202 1,681
26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences 1,042,147 31,070
27 Mathematics and Statistics 5,496 25,738
29 Military Technologies and Applied Science 688 7,455
40 Physical Sciences 287,555 28,020
41 Science Technologies/Technicians 4,391 19,979
41 Science Technologies/Technicians 4,391 19,979
48 Precision Production 583 34,736
51 Health Professions and Related Programs 1,497,056 2,006,105



Subtotals 4,945,112 3,311,070

The following table displays the (2000-13) degrees conferred to temporary resident (foreign students). Attempting to grant work authorization to just U.S. educated foreign workers will add 556,490 job seekers to the STEM workforce, bringing the competition to 6.5 candidates for each projected job. Additionally, under President Obama's planned OPT extension, foreign STEM students will receive up to a three year Social Security and Medicare contribution exemption, combining the employee and employer share this is a discount of 12.4% on Social Security and another 2.9% on Medicare combined contributions


Citizenship (standardized): Temporary Residents 2000-2013 Doctorate Master's Bachelor's Associate's
01 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences 3703 6961 3,028 513
02 Agricultural Sciences 31 42 16 2
04 Architecture and Related Services 714 15673 6,789 267
10 Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services 15 2093 1,407 1,199
11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services 5676 112524 41,916 9,192
14 Engineering 34598 193060 67,107 1,696
15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields 267 11736 6,411 4,993
25 Library Science 150 1941 7 7
26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences 14513 19830 29,255 888
27 Mathematics and Statistics 5496 25738 11,855 725
29 Military Technologies and Applied Science 0 2 5 0
40 Physical Sciences 16543 23011 11,490 1,915
41 Science Technologies/Technicians 3 69 177 356
48 Precision Production 0 12 33 88
51 Health Professions and Related Programs 5565 38369 22,109 17,303
Subtotals 87,274 451,061 201,605 39,144
Totals779,0845.02%(Associate's)

Source data: https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/