Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Immigration Moratorium: Chapter 2

  Immigration Moratorium

Chapter 2: Expected Useful Lifetime of STEM Degree


1 million new STEM jobs projected by 2022, 5.9 million new American graduates will apply for them.

Subjects: Immigration moratorium, STEM, Employment, Education, temporary visa

Source data by NSF/NCES
In the previous post, we found that domestic (citizen and permanent resident) bachelor's degree production is more than adequately meeting employment growth published by the BLS. Even with an additional 22 months (2014-Oct. 2015) of employment growth beyond the college degree data period (2000-13), there would still be 6.42% slack (not employed) in the college educated population.

For this post we are looking at STEM degree production, on the domestic side (citizens and permanent residents), for the fourteen years of data  we have 4,945,112 STEM bachelor's and 3,311,070 associate's degrees conferred, for a total of 8,256,182.  Without factoring in any immigration and considering the STEM sector employment level for 2014 below, domestic degree production can replace the entire STEM employment market in a little over 15 years. Most of these graduates need 40 years of employment to reach their retirement age.
There were over 8.3 million STEM jobs in May 2014, representing about 6.2 percent of total U.S. employment. Seven of the 10 largest STEM occupations were related to computers. These occupations included applications software developers, with employment of 686,470; computer user support specialists (563,540); and computer systems analysts (528,320). Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives of technical and scientific products (335,540) was the largest STEM occupation that was not specifically computer related. Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ocwage.pdf
The BLS 2014 projection for STEM employment is that STEM employment "...is projected to grow to more than 9 million between 2012 and 2022. That’s an increase of about 1 million jobs over 2012 employment levels." [PDF]  However, from averages taken from the table below,  the STEM bachelor's degrees will be conferred will be 3.53 million and the associate’s degrees will be another 2.37 million over ten years.  Basically, there are 5.9 million (citizen and permanent resident) students in the pipeline for an employment growth projection of 1 million jobs.

The following educational sectors are adhock and do not represent the exact degrees in the paragraph above, but with the disparity in numbers, all we need is common horse-sense to support an immigration moratorium.

Citizenship (standardized): U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents 2000-2013 Bachelor's Associate's
01 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences 206,762 69,513
02 Agricultural Sciences 901 163
04 Architecture and Related Services 125,605 7,057
10 Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services 46,313 52,801
11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services 612,641 474,940
14 Engineering 902,298 32,648
15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields 207,083 499,185
25 Library Science 1,202 1,681
26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences 1,042,147 31,070
27 Mathematics and Statistics 5,496 25,738
29 Military Technologies and Applied Science 688 7,455
40 Physical Sciences 287,555 28,020
41 Science Technologies/Technicians 4,391 19,979
41 Science Technologies/Technicians 4,391 19,979
48 Precision Production 583 34,736
51 Health Professions and Related Programs 1,497,056 2,006,105

Subtotals 4,945,112 3,311,070

The following table displays the (2000-13) degrees conferred to temporary resident (foreign students). Attempting to grant work authorization to just U.S. educated foreign workers will add 556,490 job seekers to the STEM workforce, bringing the competition to 6.5 candidates for each projected job. Additionally, under President Obama's planned OPT extension, foreign STEM students will receive up to a three year Social Security and Medicare contribution exemption, combining the employee and employer share this is a discount of 12.4% on Social Security and another 2.9% on Medicare combined contributions

Citizenship (standardized): Temporary Residents 2000-2013 Doctorate Master's Bachelor's Associate's
01 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences 3703 6961 3,028 513
02 Agricultural Sciences 31 42 16 2
04 Architecture and Related Services 714 15673 6,789 267
10 Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services 15 2093 1,407 1,199
11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services 5676 112524 41,916 9,192
14 Engineering 34598 193060 67,107 1,696
15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields 267 11736 6,411 4,993
25 Library Science 150 1941 7 7
26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences 14513 19830 29,255 888
27 Mathematics and Statistics 5496 25738 11,855 725
29 Military Technologies and Applied Science 0 2 5 0
40 Physical Sciences 16543 23011 11,490 1,915
41 Science Technologies/Technicians 3 69 177 356
48 Precision Production 0 12 33 88
51 Health Professions and Related Programs 5565 38369 22,109 17,303
Subtotals 87,274 451,061 201,605 39,144

Source data: https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/

Friday, November 20, 2015

Immigration Moratorium; Chapter 1

Immigration Moratorium

  Chapter 1: College Outcomes vs. Employment Growth

Subjects: Immigration moratorium, employment, college outcome, unemployment, H-1B,Green Card

The high-skill immigration debate is turning toward stapling a Green Card to U.S. conferred degrees. (The globalists call them advanced degrees without any further specificity, so we'll assume bachelors degrees and above in this exercise.)
College Outcomes vs. Employment Growth cap and gown image

Instead of writing about H-1B, this exercise coaxes college outcome data out of BLS Employment growth statistics verses Permanent Resident and Citizen bachelor's degrees conferred (U.S.) to find a "Not Employed" rate.  

The following section in the table displays the bachelors degrees and above and how that  "Not Employed" rate is changed as we accept more (U.S. college educated) Temporary Residents (non-citizens).

Retirement for those 65 and older are subtracted from the U.S. degrees conferred yearly at the rate of their presence in the population for the subject year. (A generous deduction since this percentage grows yearly and those degrees were conferred 40 years ago).

Finally, the original Employment Growth data does not match the available educational data, I adjusted that "Not Employed" rate in the final section of the table.  (I'm not calling it an unemployment rate because it would not be technically accurate.)

Bachelors Degree Employment Outcomes Since 2000

Citizen and PermRes Bachelors Degrees Conferred (2000-13)20,720,142
Retirement (aging out) Bachelors Since December 1999-3,420,761

Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth17,299,381
BLS Employment Growth Bachelors (Dec. 1999 - Oct. 2015)16,189,000

Bachelors Degree Not Employed1,110,381
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent - U.S. only)6.42%

Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)
Bachelors 661,474

Not Employed Percent with TempRes Degrees Added
Bachelors 10.24%

Total Not Employed Bachelors (w Res and Non res.)17.01%

Rollback Employment to 2013 Levels (to match EDU data)13,876,381
Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth (U.S. Citizen and PermRes.)16,189,000

Bachelors Degree Not Employed (U.S.)2,312,619
Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)1,832,767

Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent)27.99%

Notes:  The number of Doctorate degrees conferred to Temporary Residents is miniscule over the 14 year period, 100% of the bachelors degrees are unnecessary as is some portion of the masters degrees.  The yearly average is 130,912.

Not all foreign students foreign student will be interested in staying, the current employment-based Green Card caps of 140,000 is adequate.  All temporary immigrant programs are likely unneeded.

* I noticed that when I rolled back the "Not Employed" to EOY 2013 levels, I did not subtract the 853,000 degree holders who had not yet retired.

Educational Data Source: https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/ 
Employment and Population Data Unadj. (Current Population Survey - CPS) Source: http://www.bls.gov/data/

Friday, July 24, 2015

Job Openings Data Misrepresented

Job Openings Data Misrepresented

Think tank personnel cannot read a simple chart, desperate to fool public?

Subjects: shortage of STEM graduates, Adams Nagar, H-1B train your replacement, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation ITIF

Adams Nagar, an Economic Research Analyst at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (a lobbyist think tank), has completely misrepresented the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data. On page 2 of "Looking Past the Loopholes: Are H-1Bs an 'Offshoring' Visa?", Nagar claims that there are 5.4 million job openings, but neglects to include that 5 million of those positions were filled in the same period. (This happens each and every month.)

Demand for technology workers has never been higher. Indeed, many of the record 5.4 million positions currently open in the United States are tied to the shortage of STEM workers.

Companies facing costly [H-1B] hiring difficulties face a tough choice: Remain uncompetitive with under-qualified U.S. workers, pay to poach workers from other companies and industries also facing shortages, fill the positions with foreign-born and often U.S.-educated professionals, or leave the position unfilled and forfeit an opportunity for growth.
Unable to interpret the simple Wall St. Journal chart that he linked to, perhaps Nagar is a prime example of an under-qualified U.S. worker that he references.  He holds an M.A. in Political Economy and Public Policy and a B.A. in Economics and Political Economy from Wash. U.

 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

The JOLTS survey measures actively recruited positions, as Job Openings. It also measures, Hires and Separations, categorized as quits, layoffs with no intent to rehire, discharge of the position or personnel etc. Basically, JOLTS simply measures "churn" or natural turnover in the labor market.

The JOLTS data begins in December 2000, so I decided to take a look at, and chart, the long term averages.   I found it interesting that for all of the years included in the data-set, even during recessions, Hires exceeded Job Openings, with the except being 2015. (This data to June 2015 and June is preliminary.)

The blue line in the chart above is the yearly average of Job Openings which finally returned to year 2000 levels.  The red line, Hires, is currently averaging 369,600 below year 2000 levels.  The yellow line (calculated by subtracting Opening from Hires (implied employment change)), is the amount the Hires have traditionally exceeded Job Openings, this year appears to be an outlier.

Although I hate to use Unemployment data because it does not include discouraged workers,  I used it in the following chart because I wanted to compare those actively seeking employment to the active recruiting format the JOLTS provides in Job Openings.

The above chart adds the JOLTS averages with Unemployment data (U-3) by educational level, this data is only available for ages 25 years and older.

The brown line represents headline unemployment levels (number of persons) with less than a bachelors degree. From 2007 to 2010, this group's unemployment levels grew by 4.95 million. Again, this population is likely to contain discouraged workers, which are not included in the U-3 displayed, but the steeply diving trend in this segment of the unemployed since 2010, makes it appear that the majority of hiring has occurred within the population with less than a bachelors degree.

The green line, represents those unemployed, 25 and older, with a bachelors degree and higher.  Again, because this is U-3 Unemployment data, this represents people actively seeking employment.  This data appears to be quite telling. For the years 2000 through 2008, we see that unemployment levels appear to be closely associated with the jobs which were not actively recruited (the yellow line, Hires vs. Openings). From 2008 forward, a gap has opened up between the non-actively recruited Hires and the formally educated and unemployed population.

Divergence: unemployed college grads and non-actively recruited Hires.
2007 = 202,333
2008 = 245,083
2009 = 711,167
2010 = 956,833
2011 = 1,064,000
2012 = 1,249,000
2013 = 1,227,167
2014 = 1,287,250
2015 = 1,535,433

Note that Unemployment levels for college graduates and above was 559,000 in December 2000 and is 1,307,000 for June 2015. 

Before analyzing what is going on with the college graduates, I refer back to the chart, to point out that prior to 2009, the unemployment levels for those with less than a bachelors degree (brown line) also appears to have had a correlation with the non-actively recruited Hires.

Unemployment: less than a bachelors degree

When even the New York Times reports on it, it is no secret that the majority of recovery jobs have been created in low paying service industries.  Automation is also constantly increasing, so the level of sophistication for some jobs is on the decline.  Additionally, many college graduates are reporting that they are taking wrote service level jobs, bartender, waitress, Uber driver etc.

Unemployment: bachelors degree and above

With the Unemployment levels in this population still 2.4 times higher than they were in December of 2000, there is either, no suitable jobs for them, an unwillingness to hire these workers, or many are not willing to settle for employment that does not fall within their discipline/meet their salary requirement.

An open search for advertised positions on Dice.com, the premier job website for technical employment yields 86,858 job listings, this is basically identical to pre-recession levels.

Adams Nagar, economics degree and all, must be living in some kind of parallel universe if he thinks that JOLT numbers, which have barely eclipsed December 2000 levels, have anything to do with demand for STEM workers and by extension H-1B visas.

There are already plenty of visas for "domestic" employers, but not if they are used for the "train your replacement" loophole, where those employee's only sin was to be more expensive than a foreign student who is attempting to jump the citizenship line through non-immigrant visa programs. 

"Domestic" employers can't seem to come to terms with the fact that offshore outsourcing firms are the top users of and applicants for the H-1B visa. They are gaming the system, and in actual terms are foreign firms, or whose specialty is arbitraging jobs to foreign nations, benefiting from a program that was designed to help American employers.

Monday, July 20, 2015

Microsoft Uses Women's Soccer Team to Regurgitate Faulty Data

Microsoft Uses Women's Soccer Team to Regurgitate Faulty Data

Microsoft's use of the US Women's Soccer Team and faulty data to try to increase immigration falls to a new low.

Subjects: shortage of Computer Science (CS) graduates, Women's Soccer, H-1B train your replacement, shortage debunked, Computer Science degrees

We gained some traction on "train your replacement" H-1B abuse.  Many thanks to the journalists who covered the stories.

Foremost, a big thank you to ComputerWorld's,  Patrick Thibodeau for his tireless work on covering the H-1B and foreign labor arbitrage topic. "About 500 IT jobs are cut at utility through layoffs and voluntary departures", February 4, 2015.

The New York Times, Pulitzer Prize winner, Julia Preston, who wrote, "Pink Slips at Disney. But First, Training Foreign Replacements", June 3, 2015, and was surprised enough about the comments on the article that she did a follow up article.

The Los Angeles Times
, Pulitzer Prize winner,   Michael Hiltzik, who covered the Southern California Edison labor arbitrage in, "A loophole in immigration law is costing thousands of American jobs" February 20, 2015. (Sorry, no links, The LA Times is currently behind paywall -- I guess I could delete their cookie.).

The Immigration shills waited a while and have now started regurgitating the faulty, data based, immigration attorney funded, H-1B (temporary foreign labor) propaganda.   The use of women's issues and the US National Soccer Team is a new angle though. The article is pretty well identified as propaganda and discussed on Slashdot.
Ten days ago, the United States women’s national soccer team became the most successful team in the history of the FIFA Women’s World Cup by winning the top prize for the third time. However, despite the fact that soccer is not as popular in America as in the rest of the world, it is not surprising that the U.S. women have been dominant in the sport in recent years. The explanation for that success lies in the talent pipeline. With over 1.5 million girls registered in youth leagues, close to 50 percent of all youth players in the U.S. are female and soccer is one of the top three most popular sports among girls ages 5-19.

We only get into the third paragraph before the author whips out the cherry picked graduation data and uses BLS projections rather than actual data.

Unfortunately, the strength in the talent pipeline that we see in female soccer today is not the reality for technology. The U.S. is facing a shortage of Computer Science (CS) graduates. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, every year there are close to 140,000 jobs requiring a CS degree, but only 40,000 U.S. college graduates major in CS, which means that 100,000 positions go unfilled by domestic talent. Even more dramatic is that women in U.S. colleges and universities earn only 18 percent of CS degrees."

First, Computer Science undergraduate degrees are not the only degrees that are applicable to Computer occupations.  Additionally, in 2011, the Census Bureau reports that, 1,013,300 (28%) of those employed in Computer occupations held less than a bachelor's degree.

Citizens and Permanent Residents

Computer related degrees conferred 2013TotalFemale-/- Percent Female
Master's Degrees12,7253,30325.96%
Bachelor's Degrees49,2048,72617.73%
Associate's Degrees38,6088,19821.23%

Source: NSF WebCaspar, 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projections is also rather suspect at 140,000 per year, in fact, since 2009, employment growth in computer occupations is less than 10% of projected, at 13,922.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics: OES

By the way, the H-1B initial employment approvals for Computer-related occupations was 80,877 for 2014 alone.  One year of H-1B intake exceeded five years of recession recovery growth of 69,610.

The latest five years of C.S. and C.I.S. graduation data (2009-13), for citizens and permanent residents only (Master's, Bachelor's and Associate) is 444,912 with 92,716 (20.84%) conferred to women. 

After this investment in time and resources, do our qualified women even get a tryout, when temporary foreign workers have a clear hiring preference?

Incidentally, are there any women with temporary visas on the U.S. Women's Soccer Team?