Sunday, April 29, 2007

Simple Analysis of the AeA Cyberstates Report

The High-tech occupations have high concentrations of male wage-earners, historical employment to population ratios for men (65 and under) indicate that over-all job growth is not maintaining pace with population growth.

Unemployment statistics have no historical relevance in monitoring the economic health of the Nation.
(The current job market for men is still below 1992 recession levels.)

In 2003, the employment to population ratio (Men 65 and under,) dipped below the 1983 recession levels. Additionally, these employment to population levels have not recovered to the 1992 recession lows and the duration of the 2001 recession has lasted 4 years, twice as long as the prior 2 recessions. Combining the Employed and Unemployed to population (men under 66) ratios together, denotes a declining trend in employment that must be abated.

Of course, women in predominantly male occupations will experience the same employment difficulties as men.

Simple Analysis of the AeA Cyberstates Report.
(April, 29, 2007)

A lobbying agency, called the AeA, is attempting to paint a positive picture on the disastrous over-subscription of "Computer-related occupations" sector in the H-1B guestworker visa program. As usual, the pro-guestworker camps are having problems proving the claim, "the H-1B is a job retention and creation tool." The meager improvements noted in AeA report is being touted as evidence that an increase in H-1B visas is justifiable.

After a quick bit of research, I found some interesting facts that would indicate a reduction in H-1B visas is required.

AeA Background:

AeA provides lobbying and advocacy services for our member companies before State, Federal, and International governments. AeA is the only high-tech trade association with public policy professionals working at every level of government to help our members achieve their operational and strategic business goals.

Excerpt of the 2007 AeA Cyberstates press release:

The report shows that in 2006, the high-tech industry continued growing, adding nearly 150,000 net jobs for a total of 5.8 million in the United States. This growth is faster than the 87,400 jobs added in 2005. These two years of growth represent an increase of four percent.

Fortunately, the AeA Cyberstates report has some historical data for comparison:

The total number of employees in the U.S. high-tech sector totaled 5.6 million in 2001, up just 1 percent from 5.5 million in 2000, the report says.,102329-page,1/article.html

Assuming the Cyberstates basis-data has not changed over the years, we had 5.6 million jobs in the high-tech industry for 2001 and the "Cyberstates" sector has grown to 5.8 million jobs 2006. The five year growth equals 200,000 jobs for an average of 40,000 jobs per year.

I thought that it might be interesting to compare the Cyberstates data, with the H-1B initial employment approval data (2001 through 2005) in just the computer-related occupations sector. The Cyberstates report covers a far greater number of occupations than just the "Computer-related" occupational group.

The job data used by the AeA for its Cyberstates is from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and is the most recent data from the agency. It encompasses 45 market segments related to the technology industry based on categories defined by the BLS, such as manufacturing, communications services, software, and computer related services.,102329-page,1/article.html
H-1B guestworkers approved for initial employment in 2001, immigrated and began working in late 2001, the average continuing employment approvals for expiring H-1Bs approved from 2000 to 2002 was 126%. The upside-down continuing approval rate is most likely due to single year continuances of H-1B visa, beyond the 6 year limit of the H-1B, while applicants waited for EB greencard visas.

Computer-related occupations (03)
USCIS H-1B Initial Employment Approvals

2001 = 110713
2002 = 25637
2003 = 28879
2004 = 56559
2005 = 52352
Total = 274,140

(Computer-related occupations represent 41.7% of all 2001-2005 initial employment H-1B approvals. Computer-Related payroll occupations represents 3.09% of the 2005 Full-Time wage and salary earners.)

Again, the H-1B figures of 274,140 initial employment approvals, only represent "Computer-related occupations." The AeA would have us believe that the growth of 200,000 jobs is good news even though a partial representation of H-1B guestworkers exceeds the five year job growth figure by 74,140 guestworkers.

The invasion of conscript workers has affected hiring practices, full-time salaried and wage-earner employment for the foreign-born (16.53% of the population), enjoyed 39.10% of job growth in 2006. (Due to differening data collection methods historical data is not comprarble to 2005-2006 data.)

It is understandable, that foreign-born will the recommend foreign-born for employment, but the underlying truth is that a large percentage of these 895,000 jobs are now held by guestworkers.

The following graph, indicates that increases in pathways to citizenship (ICRA and EB visas) improve male employment to population ratios, while increases in guestworker programs are detrimental to male employment to population ratios.

Click image to enlarge

Citizenship programs tend to instill hope and optimism, while guestworker programs enable labor arbitrage and instill pessimism. As a member of the "computer-related occupations" category, I can predict with confidence that future guestworker programs will be abused and mismanged and the U.S. economy will continue to be looted by Corporate Global Citizens.

Source data for H-1B employment approvals can be found in the yearly DHS reports:
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B):
Table 8A. H-1B Petitions Approved by Major Occupation Group of Beneficiary and
Type of Petition (Number):

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