Thursday, November 15, 2007

More on labor shortage propaganda myth

From transcript:

There is no shortage of students studying for careers in Math and Science. There is a shortage of jobs. That's the simply bottom line finding of a new study from the Urban Institute. The study shows that between 1985 and 2000 435,000 U.S. citizens and permanent residents a year graduated with Bachelors, Masters, and Doctoral degrees in Science and Engineering. That's three times the number of jobs in Science and Engineering added per year, 150,000 during that time.

In dialog with Lou Dobbs:

TUCKER: Now Lou, that's the Urban Institute, the Alfred P. Sloan (ph) Foundation, Duke, Harvard, the RAND Corporation. Studies done independently of each other, different researches, different funding, all reaching the same basic conclusion that there is no worker shortage. Lou, the problem is not a lack of workers. The problem these studies all conclude is a lack of companies hiring them. And as we've reported many, many times on this program those companies either off-shore the work or as you mentioned at the top, demand more H-1B visas and then pay those workers less -- Lou.

end transcript:

The Urban Institute employment/educational study uses 1985-2000 data, an aggregate of domestic Engineering degrees from the ASEE, shows similar results for 2000-2006. <Posted Here>

While researching another project, I revisited some data posted by Senator Grassley, concerning the top 20 corporate users of the H-1B and L-1 guestworker visas. The document provided to Senator Grassley was sorted by total H-1B visas, I decided to combine the 2006 H-1B and L-1 visa usage for 2006 and sort by corporate headquarters. The Grassley publication can be found here:

Click image to enlarge:

Of the 48,159 H-1B and L-1 visas used by the top 20 (H-1B) corporate employers, 28,974 went to corporations based in India. Providing the lionshare of highly skilled guestworker visas to offshoring specialists is counter-productive to the long-term prospects of keeping innovation and high-tech employment in the USA.

NASSCOM, the premier trade body and voice of the software and services industry in India, publicly states:

Elaborating on the report, Mr. S. Ramadorai, CEO, TCS and Chairman, NASSCOM said, "Today [2005] the Indian IT and BPO industry is estimated to be USD 22 billion. The industry is in a strong position to leverage the global software opportunity and establish India as the premier IT destination in the world. Extensive innovation by various industry stakeholders could accelerate the growth in export revenues and increase India’s share in the global market substantially in the near future. In order to achieve this, we will require breakthrough collaboration by industry players, central and state governments and NASSCOM."

Said Noshir Kaka, Partner, McKinsey & Company, "Our research suggests that the total addressable market for global offshoring is approximately $300 billion, of which $110 billion will be offshored by 2010. India has the potential to capture more than 50 per cent of this opportunity and generate export revenues of approximately $60 billion by growing at 25 per cent year-on-year till 2010. Inherent advantages like abundant talent supply, strong cost- and-leadership oriented companies, regulatory support, scaleable high-quality infrastructure, and a growing domestic market have been instrumental in driving the growth of this sector."

In 2005, the Indian IT offshoring industry had already claimed $22 billion of its goal of $110 billion. "Central government" and "regulatory" support have given India the inside track on H-1b, L-1 and Employment based visas. According to my estimates, non-citizen computer-related workers in 2005 held 52.4% of employment, depriving American wage-earners $82.3 billion in domestic salaries. I contend that guestworkers visas are almost 4 times more harmful to American IT wage-earners than offshoring. <Computer-related employment estimate>

In light of the new Engineering studies, CompeteAmerica and the American Immigration Lawyers Association must be working hard, formatting the next pro-guestwoker slogan. After all, an estimate of initial employment H-1B attorney fees is somewhere between $212,000,000.00 and $330,000,000.00 annually. <posted Here>

A current pro-guestworker slogan, is that foreign graduates of American colleges cannot obtain employment based green-cards due to the backlog. But in fact, dual-intent provisions of the H-1B and L-1 visas have created the backlog for those studying in the U.S. and wishing to immigrate here.

The Institute of International Education (IIE) reports the following new admissions to the U.S. educational system for the 2006-2007 school year. <Source>

Undergraduate = 63,749
Postgraduate = 72,726
Other = 20,703

Total = 157,178

There is no guarantee that these student will graduate, nor that all students are interested in immigrating to the U.S. Additionally, the IIE reports that there were 83,160 enrolled in Community College Associate's Institutions. <Associate Degree link>


Preliminary numbers from show that there are adequate employment options and citizenship programs to facilitate foreign students.

Of 121,200 EB-1st, EB-2nd and EB-3rd preference visas available, only about 13,600 were issued at Foreign Service Ports. My assumption is that the majority of these employment based visas are now issued to those already in the country on other visas.

Employment based visas 2006:
2006 EB First Preference = 37,504
2006 EB Second Preference = 22,430
2006 EB Third Preference = 58,357

Further examination of the "travel" publications reveal some interesting numbers about the impact of "highly skilled" H-1B and L-1 guestworkers.

For 2006:
L-1 = 72,613 --- Spouse/Children L-2 = 61,984
H-1B = 135,421 --- Spouses/children (H-4) of all H visas = 74,326

Total H visas = 372,254 (all H visas i.e. nurses, AG workers, guestworkers & highly skilled)

Unlike, H-4 spouses and children visas L-2 spouses and children can obtain U.S. work authorization.

The L-2 spouse can engage in employment, with an ‘employment authorized’ endorsement or appropriate work permit.

The holder of an H-4 visa may not work on a derivative visa. If he/she is seeking employment, the appropriate work visa will be required.
Table of Contents:

Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas

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