If you want to be an immigrant -- update your skills to the postgraduate level

"Vivek Wadhwa, an adjunct professor at the Duke University Pratt School for
Engineering, doesn't buy into the noble notion that U.S. companies such as
Microsoft go overseas because the American job pool doesn't have the required,
high-end skills." http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08200/897726-28.stm

Wadhwa, also a former Tech industry Captain, is against the H-1B, but is also sensitive to the postgraduates of American colleges; non-immigrants wishing to become Americans that are trapped in limbo, because of per country quotas in the Employment based green-card system. Conversely, these quotas have saved the U.S. from being overrun with "weak" foreign graduates.

In other posts, I've displayed that our immigration levels are excessive, employment growth is not keeping up with population growth and housing inflation (caused by excessive immigration) is causing Americans to be economically evicted in our own country. The last thing we need is more immigration.

Instead of raising the Employment based visa caps which are adequate... re-arrange some categories to alleviate the backlog, but we need to be selective, as Wadhwa proclaims, some of these foreign degrees are Associate degrees disguised as Bachelor degree equivalent.

1. Create an exemption from the employment based per-country-caps for postgraduates of colleges located within America. (They tell us we need to update our skills if we want to be employed, thus if you want to be an immigrant -- update your credentials.)

2. The employment based (EB) visa quota includes spouses and children -- move these visas from the EB program to the Family sponsored visa quotas.

3. Eliminate the H-1B and L-1 abusive visa programs and put business visa programs back where they belong, under the Business visa (B-1) for the purpose of investment, equipment installation and training only. Non-immigrant employment visas are indenturing, step by step we are on the road to condoning slavery -- see the AGJOBS bill on the removal of worker protections, worker paid fees and wage caps.

4. Employment based immigration caps should not be a hard cap. During recessions, the U.S. does not create enough jobs for our children, but the immigrants keep coming. Employment based immigration should be performance based, i.e. some small percentage of the prior year's employment growth. If employment based immigration were to become performance based, corporations may not be so eager to offshore entire processes.

5. Employment based immigration enforcement is rather simple. If a worker is out of status, simply disallow the employer's tax deduction expense for out-of-status wages. If the employer requires illegal labor to compete, they're already bankrupt and haven't come to terms yet.

Taken from the video embedded below, Wadhwa explains the conclusions of Duke University studies... which eliminates all labor shortage propaganda.

• "... the multinationals are teaching these employees what they need and they are taking any education that they can get, it doesn't matter that the entire education system in India and China is garbage, and the graduates are weak, American companies will train them up because they are so cheap..."
• "... in almost every perspective Amercans [workers] were better..."
• "...the bottom line is that there is nothing wrong with American workers, they were better by far, not by a little, but by a lot..."
• "In a country that doesn't even have washing-machines, both GE and Whirlpool are designing appliances in India right now..."
• ...they [China] are desparate to move up the ladder to R&D, they are now coercing American companies to move their R&D there .... if the American companies are going to manufacture there they better move their R&D there."

The Wadhwa video has been removed by the user, alternate copy here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvqqYDmLgjY

Last Century's immigration policy no longer works

To continue the current immigration policy and save the Banking Institutions, well need about 13 million jobs -- right away. Since that isn't likely, maybe we should re-evaluate immigration policy.

BLS Employment Growth over NonInstCiv Population Growth by Decade:
1950s
Population Growth = 11,516,000
Employment Growth = 7,215,000 (63%)

1960s
Population Growth = 19,449,000
Employment Growth = 13,862,000 (71%)

1970s (Full blown depression in Mexico)
Population Growth = 30,811,000
Employment Growth = 21,224,000 (69%)

1980s
Population Growth = 20,865,000
Employment Growth = 17,685,000 (85%)

1990s
Population Growth = 21,667,000
Employment Growth = 16,998,000 (78%)

2000s (to June 2008)
Population Growth = 24,795,000
Employment Growth = 11,953,000 (48%)

Data: BLS - CPS

Unadjusted http://www.bls.gov

Downloaded: July 2008

Housing foreclosures & Immigration

Some people have a hard time comprehending that immigration levels and the housing crisis are related. After all, immigrants do not come here in motor homes. Some immigration is necessary in an expanding economy, but immigration becomes excessive when adequate housing and employment opportunities (sustenance) are not being created, or employment is being outsourced overseas.

Total BLS employed reached 145,583,000 in Nov. 2006 and is 145,891,000 for June 2008. Employment has grown by 308,000 while the Civilian Labor Force Level grew by 1,987,000 during this period.

Most new immigrants initially become renters, increased rental housing demand is caused by immigration, this demand forces more established residents into dubious mortgages on hyper-inflated housing. Wages also languish during periods of oversupply of (immigrant plus domestic) labor and cannot maintain the pace of hyper-inflating real-estate.

In Table 1, I've used DHS supplied data for Legal Permanent Resident awards as a proxy for immigration levels per State (includes District of Columbia.) Table 1 compares the immigration levels with the number of RealtyTrac housing foreclosure filings for March 2008. I've added columns for foreclosure rankings and immigration rankings on a State by State basis.

Table 1 shows that the States with higher "immigration rankings" in most cases also have higher foreclosure (filing) rankings.

Table 1 (click on image to enlarge)






RealtyTrac housing foreclosure filings data also includes a 1 to (number of households) ratio for each State. Using this data, I created Table 2. Table 2, compares the lowest foreclosure ratings (ratio foreclosure filings to number of units) to the States with lowest immigration levels.

Table 2 (click on image to enlarge)


It is obvious to me that America's immigration policy has created a housing market where most would borrow against their homes (even before purchasing) instead of creating employment opportunities where borrowing against one's home would be a last resort.
The sub-prime bubble burst (investors pulled the plug) at about the same time the Comprehensive Immigration Reform legislation was defeated.
Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006
The sponsor of the Bill, Senator Arlen Specter, introduced it on April 7, 2006. It was passed on May 25, 2006, by a vote of 62-36. Cloture was invoked, which limited debate to a 30 hour period. The parallel House Bill H.R. 4437 would have dealt with immigration differently. Neither bill became law because they failed to pass the conference committee. The end of the 109th Congress (January 3, 2007) marked the death of both bills.
Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007
The bill [Comprehensive Immigration Reform] also received heated criticism from both sides of the immigration debate. The bill was introduced in the United States Senate on May 9, 2007, but was never voted on, though a series of votes on amendments and cloture took place. The last vote on cloture, on June 7, 2007, 11:59 AM, failed 34-61 effectively ending the bill's chances. A related bill S. 1639, on June 28, 2007, 11:04 AM, also failed 46-53.
Subprime mortgage industry collapse
"In March 2007, the United States' subprime mortgage industry collapsed..."




Data:
Foreclosures by State:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-04-15-foreclosure-filings-march_N.htm#chart
Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: 2007
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2007/table04.xls

Increasing H-1B cap reduces wages?

The National Science Foundation (NSF) has published a document entitled, "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008."

One very interesting NSF point for FY 2006 was for H-1B visa holders in Computer-related and Writers occupations. In both occupations, Bachelor’s degreed H-1B workers earned an average of $400.00 more per year than those with a Master’s degree.

2006 Computer-related occupations H-1B Average Salaries:
Bachelor’s Degree = $56,000.00
Master’s Degree = $55,600.00

2006 Writers occupation H-1B Average Salaries:
Bachelor’s Degree = $37,900.00
Master’s Degree = $37,500.00

http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-29.htm

The NSF document also states:

"In 2006, 44% of those receiving new H-1B visas in computer-related occupations had master's degrees, and a little more than 1% had doctoral degrees."

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer. "

"Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006 are in S&T [Science & Technology] occupations."

"Total 2006 new H-1B visas approved: 113,593."

Checking these NSF statements, the computer-related H-1Bs would total 57,932 in computer-related occupations. Forty-four percent, those with Master’s degrees, equals 25,490 H-1Bs. Subtracting 1% for Doctoral degrees, the remainder would be 55%, or 31,862 computer-related H-1Bs with bachelor's degrees.

The number of H-1Bs granted to computer-related Bachelor’s and Master’s holders were significant samples and comparative in number 31,862 to 25,490 respectively.
What happened in FY 2006, that drove salaries down for Master's degree holders in Computer-related & Writers occupations?

Of interest is the fact that FY 2006 was the first year of the 20,000 visa, U.S. postgraduate degree exemption to the H-1B program.

". 20,000 cap exemption for U.S. masters and higher. Up to 20,000 aliens with masters or higher-level degrees from U.S. institutions of higher education will be exempt from the H-1B cap each year. Petitions for such individuals that are filed after the 20,000 exemptions are granted will be counted against the cap. Note: this does not impact the general exemption from the cap for individuals employed by institutions of higher education; that exemption remains. Effective date: March 8, 2005. [Sec. 425]. [Note: No further details of how this will be implemented have been announced.]" http://www.oiss.yale.edu/visa/h1refact.htm

Recapping, the 20,000 visa H-1B exemption for postgraduates of American institutions of higher learning became effective less than 30 days prior to the H-1B FY2006 application date of 4/1/2005.

Subsequently, in the largest group of subscribers to the H-1B program, the value of a Master's degree appears to have become less valuable than a Bachelor's degree in computer-related occupations. (Sorry, the NSF did not supply additional data for Writing occupations.)

Source:
National Science Foundation: "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008"
Chapter 2. Section: Higher Education in Science and Engineering
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c2/c2s4.htm

Chapter 3. Section: Global S&E Labor Force and the United States
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/c3s4.htm