H-1B Lottery Application Abuse

H-1B applications nine times the amount of job growth.

Written by weaver on October 27th 2016
Updated October 27th 2016

Subjects: Labor Condition Application, H-1B, Employment, Keep America at Work


Keep America at Work posted some LCA data today, which reminded me that I wanted to see some comparisons.

9 H-1B applications compared to each job in the prior years's growth?  The Computer Systems Analysts occupation only employs 556,660, adding 272,221 (H-1B) would be a 49% increase. The occupation has only grown 38,430 since 2008.

The H-1B program is obviously being abused by overwhelming the system with free applications. It is the equivalent to the government giving away free lottery tickets. All the employer has to do is apply, the application fees are paid only if the visa selected in the lottery -- all other applications are returned unopened -- i.e., those checks are not cashed.  An H-1B Dependent employer can apply for 10,000 H-1B visas, without incurring the $40 million that it should cost to do so.

(I.e., Foreign outsourcers apply for 20 visas, even though they only need one. Stacks the odds in their favor and costs them net nothing.)

Giveaway to H-1B Employers Opens Huge Hole in USCIS Budget

H-1B Applications
https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PerformanceData/2016/H-1B_Selected_Statistics_FY2016_Q3.pdf

Employment levels May 2015
http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm

Historical employment levels
http://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm

Immigration Moratorium: Chapter 2

  Immigration Moratorium

Chapter 2: Expected Useful Lifetime of STEM Degree

 

1 million new STEM jobs projected by 2022, 5.9 million new American graduates will apply for them.

by Steve Kritzer on
November 24, 2015; Updated November 24, 2015

Subjects: Immigration moratorium, STEM, Employment, Education, temporary visa

Source data by NSF/NCES

In the previous post, we found that domestic (citizen and permanent resident) bachelor's degree production is more than adequately meeting employment growth published by the BLS. Even with an additional 22 months (2014-Oct. 2015) of employment growth beyond the college degree data period (2000-13), there would still be 6.42% slack (not employed) in the college educated population.

For this post we are looking at STEM degree production, on the domestic side (citizens and permanent residents), for the fourteen years of data  we have 4,945,112 STEM bachelor's and 3,311,070 associate's degrees conferred, for a total of 8,256,182.  Without factoring in any immigration and considering the STEM sector employment level for 2014 below, domestic degree production can replace the entire STEM employment market in a little over 15 years. Most of these graduates need 40 years of employment to reach their retirement age.

There were over 8.3 million STEM jobs in May 2014, representing about 6.2 percent of total U.S. employment. Seven of the 10 largest STEM occupations were related to computers. These occupations included applications software developers, with employment of 686,470; computer user support specialists (563,540); and computer systems analysts (528,320). Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives of technical and scientific products (335,540) was the largest STEM occupation that was not specifically computer related. Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ocwage.pdf

The BLS 2014 projection for STEM employment is that STEM employment "...is projected to grow to more than 9 million between 2012 and 2022. That’s an increase of about 1 million jobs over 2012 employment levels." [PDF]  However, from averages taken from the table below,  the STEM bachelor's degrees will be conferred will be 3.53 million and the associate’s degrees will be another 2.37 million over ten years.  Basically, there are 5.9 million (citizen and permanent resident) students in the pipeline for an employment growth projection of 1 million jobs.

The following educational sectors are adhock and do not represent the exact degrees in the paragraph above, but with the disparity in numbers, all we need is common horse-sense to support an immigration moratorium.

Citizenship (standardized): U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents 2000-2013	Bachelor's	Associate's
01 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences	206,762	69,513
02 Agricultural Sciences	901	163
04 Architecture and Related Services	125,605	7,057
10 Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services	46,313	52,801
11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services	612,641	474,940
14 Engineering	902,298	32,648
15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields	207,083	499,185
25 Library Science	1,202	1,681
26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences	1,042,147	31,070
27 Mathematics and Statistics	5,496	25,738
29 Military Technologies and Applied Science	688	7,455
40 Physical Sciences	287,555	28,020
41 Science Technologies/Technicians	4,391	19,979
41 Science Technologies/Technicians	4,391	19,979
48 Precision Production	583	34,736
51 Health Professions and Related Programs	1,497,056	2,006,105
Subtotals	4,945,112	3,311,070

The following table displays the (2000-13) degrees conferred to temporary resident (foreign students). Attempting to grant work authorization to just U.S. educated foreign workers will add 556,490 job seekers to the STEM workforce, bringing the competition to 6.5 candidates for each projected job. Additionally, under President Obama's planned OPT extension, foreign STEM students will receive up to a three year Social Security and Medicare contribution exemption, combining the employee and employer share this is a discount of 12.4% on Social Security and another 2.9% on Medicare combined contributions. 

Citizenship (standardized): Temporary Residents 2000-2013	Doctorate	Master's	Bachelor's	Associate's
01 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences	3703	6961	3,028	513
02 Agricultural Sciences	31	42	16	2
04 Architecture and Related Services	714	15673	6,789	267
10 Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services	15	2093	1,407	1,199
11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services	5676	112524	41,916	9,192
14 Engineering	34598	193060	67,107	1,696
15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields	267	11736	6,411	4,993
25 Library Science	150	1941	7	7
26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences	14513	19830	29,255	888
27 Mathematics and Statistics	5496	25738	11,855	725
29 Military Technologies and Applied Science	0	2	5	0
40 Physical Sciences	16543	23011	11,490	1,915
41 Science Technologies/Technicians	3	69	177	356
48 Precision Production	0	12	33	88
51 Health Professions and Related Programs	5565	38369	22,109	17,303
Subtotals	87,274	451,061	201,605	39,144
Totals	779,084	5.02%	(Associate's)

Source data: https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic License.

Immigration Moratorium; Chapter 1

Immigration Moratorium

  Chapter 1: College Outcomes vs. Employment Growth

by Steve Kritzer November 20th 2015
Updated November 21st 2015

Subjects: Immigration moratorium, employment, college outcome, unemployment, H-1B,Green Card

The high-skill immigration debate is turning toward stapling a Green Card to U.S. conferred degrees. (The globalists call them advanced degrees without any further specificity, so we'll assume bachelors degrees and above in this exercise.)

Instead of writing about H-1B, this exercise coaxes college outcome data out of BLS Employment growth statistics verses Permanent Resident and Citizen bachelor's degrees conferred (U.S.) to find a "Not Employed" rate.  

The following section in the table displays the bachelors degrees and above and how that  "Not Employed" rate is changed as we accept more (U.S. college educated) Temporary Residents (non-citizens).

Retirement for those 65 and older are subtracted from the U.S. degrees conferred yearly at the rate of their presence in the population for the subject year. (A generous deduction since this percentage grows yearly and those degrees were conferred 40 years ago).

Finally, the original Employment Growth data does not match the available educational data, I adjusted that "Not Employed" rate in the final section of the table.  (I'm not calling it an unemployment rate because it would not be technically accurate.)

Bachelors Degree Employment Outcomes Since 2000
Citizen and PermRes Bachelors Degrees Conferred (2000-13)	20,720,142
Retirement (aging out) Bachelors Since December 1999	-3,420,761
Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth	17,299,381
BLS Employment Growth Bachelors (Dec. 1999 - Oct. 2015)	16,189,000
Bachelors Degree Not Employed	1,110,381
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent - U.S. only)	6.42%
Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)
Bachelors	661,474
Masters	1,044,480
Doctorate	126,813
Not Employed Percent with TempRes Degrees Added
Bachelors	10.24%
Masters	12.46%
Doctorate	7.15%
Total Not Employed Bachelors (w Res and Non res.)	17.01%
Rollback Employment to 2013 Levels (to match EDU data)	13,876,381
Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth (U.S. Citizen and PermRes.)	16,189,000
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (U.S.)	2,312,619
Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)	1,832,767
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent)	27.99%

Notes:  The number of Doctorate degrees conferred to Temporary Residents is miniscule over the 14 year period, 100% of the bachelors degrees are unnecessary as is some portion of the masters degrees.  The yearly average is 130,912.

Not all foreign students foreign student will be interested in staying, the current employment-based Green Card caps of 140,000 is adequate.  All temporary immigrant programs are likely unneeded.

* I noticed that when I rolled back the "Not Employed" to EOY 2013 levels, I did not subtract the 853,000 degree holders who had not yet retired.

Educational Data Source: https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/ 
Employment and Population Data Unadj. (Current Population Survey - CPS) Source: http://www.bls.gov/data/

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic License.

Misleading Employment Situation Report

Here's the quote from the first line of Employment Situation Report for June 2015.  "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent,..."

 These two pieces of data are not even from the same surveys. 
 

The problem here is that the Unemployment rate is taken from the Household Survey(CPS), not the Payroll report(CES). For the month of June, total employment(CPS) declined by 56,000, yet unemployment edges down by 0.2%. (More than 100% in the decline in the Unemployment rate for June is the result of people leaving the labor force.)

Employment for bachelors degreed and above (25 and older), employment increased by 30,000, curiously that unemployment rate also declined by 0.2%. 

Also, when we read the monthly Employment Situation Report, employment by Industry is taken from the Payroll report (CES) and the April and May reports were revised downward by 60,000. So this seemingly straight forward survey was off by 12% in the previous reports, and again, has nothing to do with the unemployment rate.

If you ever want to stump an idiot who tells you how great the economy is doing and points to the Unemployment rate as proof, ask them, "How many jobs were created that month, and what that number has to do with the Unemployment rate?"

Computer Occupations: H-1B 80% of (Recession Recovery) Employment Level Growth 2011-2013

During the "recovery" from the most severe economic times since the Great Depression, 80% of Computer Employment Growth went to new H-1B immigrants.

Recession and recovery periods are critically important, foreign labor work authorizations  during these periods must be highly scrutinized.

The BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) offer us of view of the occupational levels from year to year.  Released in May of each year, the titles can be a bit misleading, for instance, the May 2013 report covers from the end of May 2012 through April 2013 -- so the MAY 2013 OES report in question aligns almost perfectly with the Fiscal Year 2012 H-1B Characteristics report from USCIS (Fiscal year begins on April 1).

The H-1B is a 3 year visa in its fist term, with a single 3 year extension and unlimited 1 year extensions for those who have secured PERM employment sponsorship for a Green Card. 

In order to compare employment level growth and H-1B foreign labor assumption of employment growth, we need to look at the 3 year period where the H-1B is known to have employment authorization.
 

H-1B New Employment Approvals  in Computer Occupations

FY 2012 = 83,444 (61.4% of total new approvals)
FY 2011 = 51,570 ( 48.9% of total new approvals )
FY 2010 = 31,661 ( 41.8 of total new approvals)
Total 166,675
Source: USCIS Reports and Studies

Concerning the employment level Gain or Losses, a portion of the Computer Occupations do not require a bachelors degree or higher and therefore, should not be eligible for the H-1B program.

Computer Occupations, 3 year Employment Level Loss Gain
Bachelors Degree or Higher = 206,240 *
Associate Degree =  73,870

* The Bachelors Degree or Higher contains Web Developers, which is an Associate Degree entry position, but that number cannot be extracted from this data-series.

 Once again, we see that of the employment growth that is H-1B eligible, 206,240  jobs, 166,875 of these jobs (89%) went to H-1B "temporary" immigrants.


Meanwhile, 235,818 entry degrees, 125,393 bachelors and 110,425 associate degrees, were awarded to citizens and permanent residents in Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services from 2010 to 2012.
Source: WebCaspar NCSES

Occupational Employment Statistics - Data

			2011	2013	Emp. Loss / Growth
	Computer Occupations		3,293,020	3,573,120
					Bachelors	Associate
15-1111	Computer and Information Research Scientists		25,160	24,380	-780
15-1121	Computer Systems Analysts		487,740	507,100	19,360
15-1131	Computer Programmers		320,100	312,340	-7,760
15-1132	Software Developers, Applications		539,880	643,830	103,950
15-1133	Software Developers, Systems Software		387,050	373,510	-13,540
15-1141	Database Administrators		108,500	114,910	6,410
15-1142	Network and Computer Systems Administrators		341,800	362,310	20,510
15-1150	Computer Support Specialists		632,490	706,360		73,870
15-1179	Information Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Architects		272,670	332,110	59,440	*
15-1799	Computer Occupations, All Other*		177,630	196,280	18,650
Totals			3,293,020	3,573,130	206,240	73,870	26%

Source data: http://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm

Correlation Therefore Conclusion

In my wildest dreams, I can not imagine Peri, Shih and Sparber, concluding the mere presence of immigrant workers causes wages to rise –- these are employment based migrants, their gig is to move to the locations where the wages are rising.

The mainstream media is on a mission to extol the virtue of the  In this particular instance, it is impossible to tell if the journalistic pro-immigration slant is coming from the Wall Street Journal authors, Josh Zumbrun and Matt Stiles and if the article’s title, "Skilled Foreign Workers a Boon to Pay, Study Finds” was their idea, was created by their editor, or is actually contained in the “Study” that Zumbrun and Stiles neglected to name.  I guess the WSJ authors thought that nobody would be interested in reading the study, authored by, Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih, Chad Sparber,  and entitled, “Foreign STEM Workers and Native Wages and Employment in U.S. Cities”, so why bother to provide the name of the study that they are writing about? 

59% Want Legal Immigration Cut in Half

Railroaded Immigration Increases Likely, But No Wage Hike

by weaver

“The reason that Americans are not getting a raise right now is because there are 20 million Americans unemployed”
--Heritage Foundation Economist, Stephen Moore. 

 

First, let’s take a look at how much value the minimum wage has lost over the years.  In 1964, the minimum wage was $1.25 per hour, at that time you could choose to take your hour’s pay in silver Quarters (1964 was the last year of silver coinage).    As of this writing, coinflation.com place the melt-value of a 1964 Washington Quarter at $3.95.  So the commensurate minimum wage today would be  $19.75 per hour, or five silver Quarters.  What the policy wonks are telling us is, that we cannot afford to bring your wages up to 51% of 1964 levels ($10.10)  and we need to increase labor competition through increased immigration.

In January, Jennifer Moore, a former Hollywood labor attorney turned Washington Post blogger, vouches for Stephen Moore’s credentials as a fellow pro-Immigration Reform wonk.  But what I really interesting today is a 1997 article co-written by, Moore, and former Cato Institute immigration propagandist, Stuart Anderson, “Cutting Immigration Myths Down to Size”. 

The final myth: Immigration must be reduced because Americans say so in polls. When polled within the appropriate context, Americans favor immigration.

Bringing your attention to, “When polled within the appropriate context,…”  is what these highly paid knuckleheads have been doing for the past seventeen years, designing poll questions that will not allow the majority of respondents to honestly answer due to an incomplete array of possible answers, and/or the question itself is not representative of the findings they will spin in the media. 

Fortunately, NumbersUSA conducted a recent poll that was examined by the Washington Times, which allowed the 1000 likely voting respondents a complete access to a complete array of possible answers.

Americans want legal immigration cut in half: poll

By Stephen Dinan The Washington Times Friday, February 21, 2014

You won’t find a link to the NumbersUSA poll but it is published here: https://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/FEB2014_NationalPoll_0.pdf 

NumbersUSA didn’t have to create questions “within the appropriate context,”  straightforward questions and wide array of answers, I’ll leave you with a few findings.

• 59% want Legal Immigration reduced to 1/2 of current levels, 43% want Legal Immigration reduced to 1/10th of current levels. Only 11% are in favor of an immigration increase.

e* Currently the government allows one million legal immigrants each year. How many
legal immigrants should the government allow each year -- two million, one million, a
half-million, 100,000, or zero?

11% Two million
16% One million
16% Half a million
17% 100,000
26% Zero
14% Not sure

GROUPINGS
27% One million or more (keep same or increase)
59% Half-million or less (reduce by at least half)
43% Zero or 100,000

• On the question of controlling access to employment, social benefits and self deportation…

m* Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose proposals to encourage most illegal immigrants to go back home on their own by keeping them from getting jobs and public benefits here?

41% Strongly support
22% Somewhat support
14% Somewhat oppose
14% Strongly oppose
9% Not sure

GROUPINGS:
63% Strongly or Somewhat SUPPORT
28% Strongly or Somewhat OPPOSE

• Dream Act

h* Concerning young adult illegal immigrants who came to the U.S. as children -- are
you very sympathetic, somewhat sympathetic, not very sympathetic or not at all
sympathetic to their request for lifetime work permits and legal status?

28% Very sympathetic
35% Somewhat sympathetic
20% Not very sympathetic
14% Not at all sympathetic
3% Not sure

GROUPING
63% Very or Somewhat Sympathetic
34% Not At All or Not Very Sympathetic

• Visa OverStay

i* Concerning adult foreign citizens who came here on vacation, as students or temporary
workers and then overstayed their visas -- are you very sympathetic, somewhat
sympathetic, not very sympathetic or not at all sympathetic to their request for lifetime
work permits and legal status?

6% Very sympathetic
21% Somewhat sympathetic
32% Not very sympathetic
38% Not at all sympathetic
3% Not sure

GROUPING
27% Very or Somewhat Sympathetic
70% Not At All or Not Very Sympathetic

In closing, I suggest that the American voters insist that any adjustment for those who are out of status (illegal), decrement the count of future available (legal) visas on a one to one basis.  Under a program where we sort out the mess first, before taking in new immigrants that will immediately need employment and housing. I contend we will get wages and spending up during a immigration moratorium and then re-examine job creation data to determine realistic legal immigration levels.

H-1B STEM Investigation Reveals No Shortage

Echoing a study completed by a job placement website called Bright (http://www.bright.com/).

July 27, 2013•04:11 PM

Is the U.S. Too Hungry for Foreign Workers?

• Ray Hennessey

Excerpt:
Bright used its database of roughly a million active resumes over the past 45 days and created dummy job descriptions based on so-called labor condition applications, or LCAs, filed by companies in the second quarter. LCAs aren't actually H-1B visa applications, but they indicate an intention on the part of a company to fill an opening with a foreign worker.
Then Bright matched its candidate pool with available jobs. What's more, it looked at the matching geographically. So, if a company in Troy, Mich., posted a position for a computer programmer, Bright only found qualified candidates in that geographic area.

Read the rest on news.terra.com

Computer Occupations & H-1B Report 2012

135,966 H-1B initial employment approvals in FY 2012

• In 2012, the H-1B cap of 85,000 was exceeded by 53,446. 
• 83,444(61.4%) of 135,966 initial employment approvals, in known occupations, went to Computer-related occupations
• Another 924 employment approvals went to Occupations unknown for a total of  136,890 employment approvals. 

Findings:

At the core of the temporary immigration problem is the static USCIS definition of the Specialty Occupation.  With a static definition of occupations that are open to temporary immigration, we can be assured that work authorizations will be wasted in occupations where they are unneeded, while industries having a genuine need will clamor for higher immigration rates .  Moreover, the temporary immigration programs are completely insensitive to occupational unemployment rates and current degree production.  Adding workforce capacity to occupations where employment levels are declining is –- flat stupid. 
USCIS still reports to Congress using the out of print Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT), there is no way to crosswalk DOT occupational titles to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) titles because many titles did not exist at the DOT last printing in 1991. The Bureau of Labor Statistics abandoned the DOT in 1998.

The US now has the capability to determine if individual occupational levels are growing,  if growth in an occupation is stagnant or declining it would be a very trivial process to ‘close’ the occupation to temporary immigration, thus freeing up visas for occupations that are experiencing growth. 

The one year (occupation specific) temporary immigration hiatus would reduce unemployment costs, student loan defaults and home loan foreclosures because it would provide a one year period where employers would be motivated to hire from the unemployment roles if they wish to participate in the early stages of recovery from economic recession(s).

Updated: Employment vs. population growth by decade

5/12/2013

A snapshot of the employment situation  for our children and immigrants.

Back in June of 2010, we found that only 1 job new job for each 20 new persons of working age were created in the decade 2000 to 2010.  Effectively a 95% jobless rate among this segment of the population.

This post revisits the “Employment vs. Population Growth” concept. Lower immigration rates and better employment growth since 2010 has only adjusted the working age jobless rate to 79.5% for the new century.

A funny thing happened after the creation of the World Wide Web, being located in the United States is no longer necessary to participate in the global economy.

In the late 1990s corporations found that they could move production to lower cost economies. Corporations, colleges and immigration attorneys formed unions under the guise of “trade associations” and presented numerous defective economic studies on the benefit of lower cost goods and the virtue of immigrant entrepreneurs, guest workers and foreign exchange students.

Hungry politicians took the bait, hook line and sinker, and we are now faced with a too big to fail situation where our politicians are impotent. We are faced with a crap-sandwich, in the form of a Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill (S 744) that will add millions of employment seeking immigrants per year, while facts at hand are being ignored.

A simple aggregate of Bureau of Labor Statistic household data displays how the employment paradigm has changed since the turn of the century.

•  Removing the population and employment growth for those 65 and over negates the Baby-Boomer retirement argument.

Employment to Population Growth (Ages 16 through 64)
Decade	Population Growth	Employment Growth	Employment rate
1950s	7,559,000	7,117,000	94.15%
1960s	15,772,000	13,817,000	87.60%
1970s	25,569,000	21,291,000	83.27%
1980s	15,470,000	17,335,000	112.06%
1990s	18,591,000	16,366,000	88.03%
2000 – 2010	22,268,000	1,048,000	4.71%
Selected Period	Population Growth	Employment Growth	Employment rate
2000 – Apr 2013	25,810,000	5,280,000	20.46%
2010 – Apr 2013	3,542,000	4,232,000	119.48%

 
For the first decade of the 2000s, there was only 1 new job created for every 20 working-age entrants into the workforce. In the decade following (2010 to present) employment growth slightly exceeds population growth, but that is largely because of a reduction in population growth.  If the 119.48% rate (2010 to present) continues for the rest of this decade without change, only 12,696,000 jobs will be created for the 2010s.  Roughly 40 million native born children enter the workforce in the decade, while the national mortality rate is about 15 million per decade.  Combining the two time periods, 2000 to present (April 2013), only 1 job has been created for every five new entrants into the workforce (noninstitutionalized population ages 16 through 64).

Effectively, we are experiencing an 79.5% unemployment rate for the population of new working-age adults added to the population since 2000.  Is this the time to blindly double the rate of legal immigration and surrender to illegal immigration without ever trying to enforce the rules of the 1986 IRCA amnesty which described the creation of E-Verify?


Source Data:

IT Industry Refuses Unemployed Professionals

 

• Employment levels in Computer-related occupations grew by 173,500 over 2011 and 2012.

• Why did unemployment levels (comprised exclusively of experienced professionals) only decline by 6,667?

Sections:

Overview:
Less than 5% of experienced unemployed computer professionals become re-employed:
Historical employment levels in Computer-related occupations:
Sources for IT talent acquisition in Computer-related occupations:
Appendix A:
Data resources:

Overview:

Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) indicates that unemployed computer professionals are benefiting from less than 5% of 173,500 in new jobs created in the recovery of 2011-12.  These are experienced professionals who are actively seeking employment and have not (yet) taken employment in another field to get by.

To qualify for the CPS occupational unemployment statistic, the unemployed professional must have held a position in the occupation as their last job.  Thus, these unemployment statistics do not include new college graduates or discouraged professionals who have given up looking for work. Additionally, if a computer professional takes a construction job and becomes unemployed s/he is no longer included on the Computer-related unemployment statistic.

Pro-guest worker pundits present seemingly low unemployment numbers for the Computer-related  occupations and leave the reader, or Congressman, to errantly assume the CPS occupational statistic is comparable to the “headline” unemployment statistic, which is not filtered by occupation, or the prior job function performed.

Considering the fact that the CPS unemployment levels can only include experienced professionals, we can measure the change in unemployment levels in direct comparison with the change in employment.  In simple terms, “How much do unemployment levels (comprised of only experienced professionals) go down when employment levels go up?”  

Less than 5% of experienced unemployed become re-employed

Methodology: Table 1 displays occupational averages of the employment and unemployment level (growth – loss) aggregates from two years of CPS data. (See Appendix A)

• Quarter I 2011 is subtracted from Quarter I 2012

• Quarter II 2011 is subtracted from Quarter II 2012

• Quarter III 2011 is subtracted from Quarter III 2012

• Quarter IV 2011 is subtracted from Quarter IV 2012

From 2011 forward, Computer-related occupations reflect the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).

Instructions provided with the Current Population Survey: “Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”

Table 1 displays the averages of aggregate tables produced from the 2011 and 2012, quarterly reports. The instructions provided with the CPS data cautions that the data should be “smoothed” over four Quarters due to variations in sampling levels. Effectively, Table 1 and Table 2, represent 2 years of smoothed data -- Quarter I 2011 through Quarter IV 2012.

Table 1 (Growth – Loss Computer-related occupations 2011-12)

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Qtr I 2011 through Qtr IV 2012
Eight Quarters Smoothed	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	8,750	NA
Computer systems analysts	51,750	7,250
Information security analysts	7,500	NA
Computer programmers	20,750	4,750
Software developers, applications and systems software	38,000	-12,250
Web developers	8,000	-750
Computer support specialists	14,750	-2,750
Database administrators	-32,500	1,333
Network and computer systems administrators	-7,250	-250
Computer network architects	29,500	NA
Computer occupations, all other	34,250	-4,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	173,500	-6,667	3.84%

NA: Unemployment data not reported for one or more quarter (CPS quarters are calendar based)
Table 1 displays the average of eight 2011 and 2012 CPS occupational reports. 

The average employment growth for the period is 173,500, yet unemployment levels, comprised exclusively of experienced professionals, declined by only 6,667. The result, is that only 3.84% of new employment growth went to officially unemployed professionals with experience in the occupation.

Notably, unemployment increased in “Computer systems analysts” and “Computer programmers” while employment also increased.

In Table 2 (below),  employment growth and loss is removed from the three occupations where the CPS unemployment level was not reported in one or more Quarters.

Table 2 (Growth – Loss Computer-related occupations 2011-12 (Isolated occupations))

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Qtr I 2011 through Qtr IV 2012
Eight Quarters Smoothed	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	NA	NA
Computer systems analysts	51,750	7,250
Information security analysts	NA	NA
Computer programmers	20,750	4,750
Software developers, applications and systems software	38,000	-12,250
Web developers	8,000	-750
Computer support specialists	14,750	-2,750
Database administrators	-21,000	1,333
Network and computer systems administrators	-7,250	-250
Computer network architects	NA	NA
Computer occupations, all other	34,250	-4,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	139,250	-6,667	4.79%

NA: Unemployment data not reported for one or more quarter (CPS quarters are calendar based)

Table 2 produces a slightly more favorable outcome for experienced professionals, however, the data still indicates that some 95% of employment growth almost certainly went to inexperienced college graduates and/or temporary foreign-workers.   (Temporary foreign workers have first “dibs” on new employment as the necessary provision for entrance into the U.S.)

Conservatively, out of 139,250 new Computer-related jobs, only 6,667 (4.79%) were filled by experienced professionals who qualified as unemployed (actively seeking employment).

Observations from Table 2

• Computer systems analysts employment levels increased, but unemployment levels also increased.

• Software developer, applications and systems software professionals had a 1 in 3 probability of becoming re-employed

• Computer programmers employment levels increased, but unemployment levels also increased

• Web developers had a 1 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed

• Computer support specialists had roughly a 2 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed

• Database administrators employment levels declined and unemployment levels also increased

• Computer occupation, all other had a little better than 1 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed

Historical employment levels in  Computer-related occupations

Historical employment growth for Computer-related occupations was only 16,545 per year from 2000 to 2010. An average of 84,160, Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to citizens and permanent residents annually.

New H-1B visas in Computer-related occupations averaged 53,204 per year from 2000 to 2011. Additionally, H-1B visa holders can adjust status to become permanent residents, so temporary immigration is a solution to a problem that does not exist.

Table 3

Computer-related Employed (000s)	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Computer scientists and systems analysts	835	734	682	722	700	745	715	825	837	759	784
Computer programmers	745	689	630	563	564	581	562	526	534	498	470
Computer software engineers	739	745	715	758	813	832	846	907	1034	952	1026
Computer support specialists	350	355	353	330	325	334	314	332	382	384	388
Database administrators	54	66	84	72	94	89	90	104	93	110	101
Network and computer systems administrators	154	185	179	176	190	200	180	214	227	207	229
Network systems and data communications analysts	305	353	328	359	312	322	356	383	422	401	366
Computer-related Employment Levels	3,182	3,127	2,971	2,980	2,998	3,103	3,063	3,291	3,529	3,311	3,364
Employment Level Change 2000 – 2010	182,000
Average Employment growth 2000 – 2010	16,545
Employment Level Low (2003)	2,980,000
Employment Level High (2008)	3,529,000
High – Low Fluctuation	549,000	15.6%
Sustained Change (2000 to 2010)	182,000	5.2%
Disposable workforce	367,000	10.4%

Between 2006 and 2008 employment levels in Computer-related occupations grew by 466,000 (15.21%).  Even at this rate of  expansion, unemployment levels went from 2.3% in to 2006 to 2.8% during the peak of employment in 2008.  In 2009, employment levels dropped by 218,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 5.5%,  2.4 times the 2006 unemployment rate.

Table 4 Unemployment rates

Unemployment	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Computer scientists and systems analysts	2.3	2.8	4.4	5.2	3.9	3.1	2.7	2.2	2.3	6.1	5.9
Computer programmers	2.0	4.0	6.1	6.4	5.8	2.3	2.4	2.2	3.6	4.8	5.7
Computer software engineers	1.7	4.2	4.7	5.2	3.3	2.4	2.1	1.8	1.7	4.5	4.6
Computer support specialists	3.4	4.2	5.4	5.4	4.6	3.4	3.4	3.9	3.9	6.2	7.7
Database administrators	3.0	2.6	2.9	6.6	2.0	4.4	0.4	0.8	2.2	4.7	2.9
Network and computer systems administrators	1.3	2.1	6.0	5.3	3.4	3.9	2.5	2.3	3.0	7.0	5.4
Network systems and data communications analysts	2.8	4.6	4.3	6.5	5.8	3.8	2.6	1.6	3.0	5.1	4.4
Average Unemployment	2.4	3.5	4.8	5.8	4.1	3.3	2.3	2.1	2.8	5.5	5.2

NOTE:  Unemployment for occupations refers to the experienced unemployed (those with prior work experience), classified according to their last job.
This SOC-based occupational classification system was introduced in 2003 and comparable data are available only back to 2000.
SOURCE:  Current Population Survey (CPS), Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

Sources for IT talent acquisition in Computer-related occupations 

Average (Experienced) Unemployed (2012) = 142,000

Average US Citizen/Perm Resident CS & CIS degrees = 84,160

Average Temporary Resident CS & CIS degrees = 11,810

Average Comp-related new H-1B visa = 53,204

Average Comp-related new L-1 visa = Undisclosed by USCIS

Total = 291,174

 Table 5: Unemployed – actively seeking employment with experience in field as last position

2011 Unemployed by Qtr.		2012 Unemployed by Qtr.
I	159,000	I	166,000
II	128,000	II	138,000
III	151,000	III	134,000
IV	144,000	IV	130,000
Avg.	145,500	Avg.	142,000

Table 6: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to Citizens and Permanent Residents.

U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents:Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race
Year	Doctorate Degrees	Master's Degrees	Bachelor's Degrees	Associate's Degrees	Total
1999	471	7,438	28,165	18,768	54,842
2000	402	8,362	34,619	23,085	66,468
2001	395	9,091	40,192	29,396	79,074
2002	410	9,252	45,797	34,553	90,012
2003	413	10,423	53,072	45,392	109,300
2004	455	11,312	54,908	41,281	107,956
2005	500	10,975	50,597	35,766	97,838
2006	551	10,489	44,901	30,981	86,922
2007	680	10,027	40,163	27,543	78,413
2008	518	9,746	37,118	28,159	75,541
2009	456	9,641	36,677	29,751	76,525
2010	NA	10,066	38,240	32,229	80,535
2011	NA	10,786	41,558	37,356	89,700
Total	5,251	127,608	546,007	414,260	1,093,126
Average yr.	477	9,816	42,001	31,866	84,160

(NCES population of institutions)
Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services

Table 7: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to Temporary Residents.

Temporary Residents: Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race
Year	Doctorate Degrees	Master's Degrees	Bachelor's Degrees	Associate's Degrees	Total
1999	334	5,378	2,260	404	8,376
2000	375	6,624	2,900	491	10,390
2001	373	7,761	3,405	717	12,256
2002	340	7,713	3,909	1,025	12,987
2003	403	9,167	4,854	1,178	15,602
2004	455	8,896	5,060	1,042	15,453
2005	621	7,514	3,991	785	12,911
2006	865	6,649	3,099	550	11,163
2007	917	6,287	2,433	428	10,065
2008	820	7,405	1,804	404	10,433
2009	507	8,347	1,819	489	11,162
2010	NA	7,955	1,867	503	10,325
2011	NA	8,733	2,028	555	11,316
Total	6,010	98,429	39,429	8,571	152,439
Average yr.	546	7,571	3,033	659	11,810

(NCES population of institutions)
Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services

 

Table 8: H-1B Visa Initial Employment Approvals (Avg. Comp-related 53,204 per year)

H-1B Initial Employment in Computer-related occupations (3 year visa)
Fiscal Year	Initial Employment	Computer-Related Occupations	Percent
2000	135,362	74,551	55.1%
2001	200,116	110,713	55.3%
2002	102,667	25,637	25.0%
2003	104,458	28,879	27.6%
2004	129,703	56,559	43.6%
2005	115,662	52,352	45.3%
2006	109,408	56,393	51.5%
2007	119,813	62,268	52.0%
2008	109,228	58,074	53.2%
2009	86,062	29,793	34.6%
2010	75,825	31,661	41.8%
2011	106,445	51,570	48.4%
Totals	1,394,749	638,450	45.8%
Source: USCIS Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 20xx[23]

 

Appendix A

The following Occupational Growth – Loss tables were uses to create Table 1 and Table 2.

From Quarter I 2011 to Quarter I 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 220,000 unemployment decreased by 2,000

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q1 2011 to Q1 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	10,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	65,000	7,000
Information security analysts	4,000	NA
Computer programmers	59,000	-3,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	-34,000	-11,000
Web developers	54,000	5,000
Computer support specialists	-32,000	-5,000
Database administrators	-67,000	NA
Network and computer systems administrators	-3,000	2,000
Computer network architects	23,000	NA
Computer occupations, all other	141,000	3,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	220,000	-2,000	-0.91%

From Quarter II 2011 to Quarter II 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 61,000 unemployment increased by 10,000

 

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q2 2011 to Q2 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	11,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	53,000	8,000
Information security analysts	-3,000	NA
Computer programmers	29,000	2,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	-28,000	-16,000
Web developers	-12,000	-4,000
Computer support specialists	55,000	4,000
Database administrators	-55,000	2,000
Network and computer systems administrators	-36,000	7,000
Computer network architects	52,000	0
Computer occupations, all other	-5,000	7,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	61,000	10,000	16.39%

From Quarter III 2011 to Quarter III 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 83,000 unemployment decreased by 21,000

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q3 2011 to Q3 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	16,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	37,000	9,000
Information security analysts	15,000	NA
Computer programmers	-4,000	15,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	52,000	-10,000
Web developers	-13,000	-3,000
Computer support specialists	-2,000	-5,000
Database administrators	-17,000	1,000
Network and computer systems administrators	-3,000	-7,000
Computer network architects	8,000	NA
Computer occupations, all other	-6,000	-21,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	83,000	-21,000	-25.30%

From Quarter IV 2011 to Quarter IV 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 330,000 unemployment decreased by 13,000

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q4 2011 to Q4 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	-2,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	52,000	5,000
Information security analysts	14,000	NA
Computer programmers	-1,000	5,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	162,000	-12,000
Web developers	3,000	-1,000
Computer support specialists	38,000	-5,000
Database administrators	9,000	1,000
Network and computer systems administrators	13,000	-3,000
Computer network architects	35,000	2,000
Computer occupations, all other	7,000	-5,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	330,000	-13,000	-3.94%

Data resources:

Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B) Link

Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas (Detailed Breakdown) (Including Crewlist Visas and Border Crossing Cards) Fiscal Years 2007 – 2011 http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/NIVClassIssued-DetailedFY2007-2011.pdf

Office of the Inspector General, “Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program“ http://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/Mgmt/OIG_06-22_Jan06.pdf

Institute of International Education. (2012). "International Students by Academic Level, 2010/11 – 2011/12."

Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange. Retrieved from http://www.iie.org/opendoors

“Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services” degrees are specific to the occupational group 15-1xxx Computer-related occupations. http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15

California Post Secondary Education Committee http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15

Current Population Survey occupational data is available on request from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Instructions provided with the Current Population Survey, Occupational statistics include, “Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”