Debunked: Shortage in Math and Computer Science
Shortage of Computer Science and Mathematics Debunked -- Professionals crowded out by H-1B
Subjects: H-1B visa, STEM shortage myth, Bachelors Degree, STEM shortage debunked, Math and Computer Science degrees
I am surprised that I had not thought of approaching the STEM shortage myth in this manner before. Math and Computer Science constitutes 50% of all STEM occupations and roughly 60% of all new H-1B visas are computer related. The H-1B visa program began in 1992; therefore, we can presume that Math and Computer Science occupations were primarily staffed with citizens and permanent residents in 1992.
NCSES ranked colleges conferred 2,317,505 Math and Computer Science degrees and certificates from 1992 to 2013, to citizens and permanent residents. Using 1992 employment levels (1,830,800) as our baseline, we add the new degrees to the 1992 employment levels to find the size of our native Math and Computer Science workforce at 4,147,305
Math & CompSci 1992 - 2013 |
|---|
Employment levels |
| (15-000) Computer and Mathematical Occupations (2013) = 3,696,180 |
| Math and Computer Science (1992) = 1,830,800 |
Growth levels |
| Employment Growth Since 1992 = 1,865,380 |
| Mathematics and Computer Degrees & Certs (1992-2013) = 2,317,505 |
Employment deficit = 486,705 (13.17%) |
| Does not include foreign workers since 1992, nor foreign students. |
Only counting domestic resources (citizens and permanent residents), we have educated half a million more Math and CompSci professionals than we employ. This without considering the hundreds of thousands of H-1B, L-1, T-N (NAFTA), OPT and O visas granted annually.
So where is this shortage? The IT shortage that employers, trade associations and immigration attorneys write incessantly about? (The occupations targeted with "shortage" adjective (traditionally Math & CompSci) has been expanded to STEM occupations, but that topic is for another paper.)
486,705 is a surplus of 9,734 formally trained professionals for every state in the nation, or a national surplus of 13.17%. For retirement to be a factor, a significant portion of those employed in Math and Computer Science occupations would have had to have been 42 years old in 1992. Highly unlikely since IBM's MS-DOS was not introduced until August of 1981.
There are about 1.6 million H-1B working in the US, per USCIS 2014 data, 64.5% are in computer occupations. Roughly 1,032,000 H-1B in CompSci.
We also know from the Census Bureau (ACS), that a bachelors degree is not mandatory in computer science, 28% of those employed in computer occupations had less that a bachelors degree in 2011. Aptitude can be proven with coursework, individual initiative, or both.
High School or less
Computer support specialists = 49,200
Computer occupations, all other = 31,800
Software developers = 22,400
Computer programmers = 21,800
Computer systems analysts = 20,800
Computer and information systems managers = 20,100
Some College or Associate’s Degree
Computer support specialists = 210,700
Computer occupations, all other = 125,100
Computer and information systems managers = 116,500
Software developers = 114,700
Computer systems analysts = 98,700
Computer programmers = 94,300
Network and computer systems administrators = 87,200
Computer occupations less than bachelors degree (2011) = 1,013,300 (28.04%)
Computer occupations employment 2011 = 3,614,046
- In 2011, Computer occupations accounted for 50% of all STEM occupations.
Detailed by field of degree from the same Census Bureau report, only 49% of those with Computers, mathematics, statistics degrees are working in STEM fields. Under the twisted logic of trade-association's, open-borders propaganda, they would have you believe that this is due to these professionals finding better employment in other fields. The reality is that these professionals have just as likely been crowded out of their chosen field by temporary foreign workers.Source: Liana Christin Landivar, 2013, “The Relationship Between Science and Engineering Education and Employment in STEM Occupations,” American Community Survey Reports, ACS-23, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC.
Census Bureau: Bachelor’s Degree for the First Listed Major: 2011
- Computers, mathematics, and statistics = 1,879,764
- 51% not working in STEM = 958,679
Math & CompSci Deficit Update 1992 - 2015 |
|---|
Employment levels |
| (15-000) Computer and Mathematical Occupations (2015) = 4,005,250 |
| Math and Computer Science (1992) = 1,830,800 |
Growth levels |
| Employment Growth Since 1992 = 2,174,450 |
| Mathematics and Computer Degrees & Certs (1992-2015) = 2,657,642 |
Employment deficit = 483,192 (12.06%) |
| Does not include foreign workers since 1992, nor foreign students. |
Note 1: I became curious as to whether some degrees or certifications may have been granted to the same persons. I ran the NSF/WEBCASPAR query again, this time selecting "Highest Degree (standardized):" rather than "Level of Degree or Other Award:" both queries yield the same result of 2,657,642.
Note 2: Employment growth in Math & CompSci, for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015, totaled was 397,360. Unemployment decreased from 3.6 to 2.6 percent, declining by 34,000 persons, but the employment deficit only declined by 3,513. Of the unemployment decline, only 10.33% came from the employment deficit I've described in this paper.
For 2013 and 2014, 160,747 new H-1B temporary workers were added to the Computer related occupations. 401,922 new citizen and permanent resident degrees and certifications (2013 (127,260), 2014 (135,176) and 2015 (139,486)), would have kept pace with the increase in employment levels without the need for temporary workers.
For 2013 and 2014, 160,747 new H-1B temporary workers were added to the Computer related occupations. 401,922 new citizen and permanent resident degrees and certifications (2013 (127,260), 2014 (135,176) and 2015 (139,486)), would have kept pace with the increase in employment levels without the need for temporary workers.
Degrees & Certs, Math & CompSci 1992-2015 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1993, 1992 | ||
| Citizenship (standardized): U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents | ||
| Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, 27 Mathematics and Statistics | ||
| Level of Degree or Other Award: All values | ||
| Academic Discipline (CIP) | Level of Degree or Other Award | Citizens & perm. residents |
| 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services | Doctorate Degrees | 8,532 |
| Doctorate Degree-Research/Scholarship | 5,384 | |
| Doctorate Degree-Professional Practice | 54 | |
| Doctorate Degree-Other | 152 | |
| Master's Degrees | 225,622 | |
| Bachelor's Degrees | 912,140 | |
| Associate's Degrees | 640,889 | |
| Post-Master's Certificates | 2,120 | |
| Post-Baccalaureate Certificates | 12,944 | |
| 2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates | 12,265 | |
| 1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates | 151,910 | |
| Less Than 1 Year Certificates | 235,698 | |
| Subtotal | 2,207,710 | |
| 27 Mathematics and Statistics | Doctorate Degrees | 10,154 |
| Doctorate Degree-Research/Scholarship | 5,779 | |
| Master's Degrees | 70,559 | |
| Bachelor's Degrees | 336,521 | |
| Associate's Degrees | 23,634 | |
| Post-Master's Certificates | 1,069 | |
| Post-Baccalaureate Certificates | 1,271 | |
| 2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates | 3 | |
| 1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates | 169 | |
| Less Than 1 Year Certificates | 773 | |
| Subtotal | 449,932 | |
| Mathematics and Computer total (1992-2015) | 2,657,642 | |
Data sources:
- Occupational statistics data: http://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm
- IPEDS Completions Survey by Race https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/
- USCIS Reports and Studies https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/reports-and-studies
- Source: Liana Christin Landivar, 2013, “The Relationship Between Science and Engineering Education and Employment in STEM Occupations,” American Community Survey Reports, ACS-23, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC.
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