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Disinformation IS Published by Code.orgFor the latest in the computer worker shortage disinformation saga, we have a website called Code.org. While promoting importance of computer literacy is important, their claims about demand for those skills are not based in reality.
Two of the claims on their Promote Computer Science page are as follows:
- There are currently 521,444 open computing jobs nationwide.
- Last year, only 42,969 computer science students graduated into the workforce.
- The "521,444 open computing jobs" are based upon 2024 projections. As of this writing, the current year is 2017.
- The "computer science students graduated" is selection bias, for the occupation(s)
Code.org does have a document published that outlines how they arrived at these figures. That document confirms that they are using BLS 2014 to 2024 projections and also discloses the Occupational codes (SOC) they used (See Table 1).
In Table 1, I've combined their list with the BLS 2014 to 2024 projections data.
|Computer Science codes:||(Projections 2014-2024)||Growth & Replacement||Growth (Employment Level)||Educational level|
|11-3021||Computer and Information Systems Managers||94,800||53,700||Bachelor's degree|
|17-2061||Computer Hardware Engineers||18,400||2,400||Bachelor's degree|
|25-1021||Computer science teachers, post-secondary||11,500||3,800||Doctoral or professional degree|
|15-1111||Computer and information research scientists||6,000||2,700||Doctoral or professional degree|
|15-1121||Computer systems analysts||191,600||118,600||Bachelor's degree|
|15-1122||Information security analysts||25,500||14,800||Bachelor's degree|
|15-1131||Computer programmers||81,000||-26,500||Bachelor's degree|
|15-1132||Software developers, applications||238,000||135,300||Bachelor's degree|
|15-1133||Software developers, systems software||107,900||51,300||Bachelor's degree|
|15-1134||Web developers||58,600||39,500||Associate's degree|
|15-1141||Database administrators||39,200||13,400||Bachelor's degree|
|15-1142||Network and computer systems administrators||79,400||30,200||Bachelor's degree|
|15-1143||Computer network architects||31,500||12,700||Bachelor's degree|
|15-1151||Computer user support specialists||150,500||75,100||Some college, no degree|
|15-1152||Computer network support specialists||36,900||13,600||Associate's degree|
|15-1199||Computer occupations, all other||37,700||7,700||Bachelor's degree|
So far, so good, we have the 548,300 in employment level growth that Code.org has referenced in their published document. Apparently, the BLS feels that 660,200 (15%) will leave the occupations by 2024.
Math & Computer Science factoid:
Of those with bachelors degrees or higher
(2,647,000 of 3,578,220) in 2012-13 data...
|Employed||% of Occupation|
|At least one S&E degree = 73.3%||1,940,251||54.2%|
|No S&E degrees but at least one S&E-related degree = 4.3%||113,821||3.2%|
|No S&E or S&E-related degree but at least one non-S&E degree = 22.5%||595,575||16.6%|
|Subtotal (slightly off due to rounding?)||2,649,647||74.0%|
|No Bachelors degree||928,573||26.0%|
National Science Foundation, National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT) (2013), http://sestat.nsf.gov.
Source data: https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_107.htm and https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm
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When we reference the WebCaspar database for Computer Science, in the method prescribed by Code.org, we find 60,266 bachelors degree conferred in 2015, this is quite a bit higher than 42,969 as stated by Code.org. In fact, the 42,969 number does not exist in the current output.
Computer Science is not the only curriculum for the "computing jobs" designated by Code.org. In fact, we can use the "SOC 2010 to CIP 2010 Crosswalk" to determine the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) codes for the Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC) codes in Table 2.
|SOC to CIP Crosswalk: for Code.org referenced computer occupations|
|01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology|
|11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General|
|11.0102 Artificial Intelligence|
|11.0103 Information Technology|
|11.0199 Computer Science, Other|
|11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General|
|11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications|
|11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification|
|11.0299 Computer Programming, Other|
|11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician|
|11.0401 Information Science/Studies|
|11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst|
|11.0701 Computer Science|
|11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design|
|11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration|
|11.0804 Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation|
|11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications|
|11.1001 Network and System Administration/Administrator|
|11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager|
|11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security/Information Assurance|
|11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster|
|11.1005 Information Technology Project Management|
|11.1006 Computer Support Specialist|
|13.1321 Computer Teacher Education|
|14.0901 Computer Engineering, General|
|14.0903 Computer Software Engineering|
|14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other|
|15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician|
|26.1104 Computational Biology|
|30.0801 Mathematics and Computer Science|
|30.1601 Accounting and Computer Science|
|30.3001 Computational Science|
|30.3101 Human Computer Interaction|
|43.0116 Cyber/Computer Forensics and Counterterrorism|
|51.0709 Medical Office Computer Specialist/Assistant|
|51.2706 Medical Informatics|
|52.1201 Management Information Systems, General|
When we compare the last ten years of educational data (for permanent residents and citizens), these awards (1,235,998) are congruent with the BLS Projections (1,208,500).
Computing jobs: Degrees & Certificates conferred US Citizens and Permanent Residents (2006-15)
- Doctorate – Professional = 9,899
- Masters = 166,437
- Bachelors = 544,578
- Associate = 323,393
- Post-grad Certificates = 11,012
- 1 but less than 4 year Certificates = 62,541
- Less than 1 year Certificates = 118,138
- Total 2006-2015 = 1,235,998
Computing jobs: Degrees & Certificates conferred Temporary Residents (2006-15)
- Doctorate – Professional = 11,805
- Masters = 113,545
- Bachelors = 41,312
- Associate = 4,862
- Post-grad Certificates = 2,076
- 1 but less than 4 year Certificates = 974
- Less than 1 year Certificates = 1,679
- Total 2006-2015 = 176,253