Computer-related H-1B initial approvals averaged 58,115 per year from 2000 to 2005, occupational reporting on H-1B visa appears to have been discontinued. To date, I know of no occupational data reporting on L-1 intracompany visas.
Aggregate Supply/Demand does not exhibit a shortage:
At face value, using the latest three years of BLS/OES employment and NCES educational data, the aggregate totals of degrees and certifications awarded to Citizens and Permanent Residents do not support the "shortage" claims of Gates and Hoffman in computer related occupations.
Subtracting the May 2005 BLS/OES employment levels from May 2008 levels, we arrive at the three year employment growth in the occupation. (These were good employment growth years (12% for the 3 yr. period) for the Computer-related occupations; moreover, the majority of recent job losses in the economy occured after May 2008.)
BLS - OES Computer Related Employment Growth:
Computer-related occupations (15-1000 Computer Specialists )
(Three year employment growth May 2006, 07, 08)
Computer and Information Scientists, Research = 720
Computer Programmers = 5,140
Computer Software Engineers, Applications = 38,180
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software = 61,110
Computer Support Specialists = 45,660
Computer Systems Analysts = (-2,230)
Database Administrators = 16,390
Network and Computer Systems Administrators = 57,520
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts = 45,220
Computer Specialists, All Other = 75,020
Total Employment Growth = 342,730
The most recent three years of college degree and certification data is 2005 - 2007.
Computer related Degrees & Cert Awarded 2005, 2006, 2007
U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents: (NCES Survey)
Doctorate Degrees = 2,112
Master's Degrees = 53,466
Bachelor's Degrees = 188,063
Associate's Degrees = 111,251
Post−Master's Certificates = 520
Post−Baccalaureate Certificates = 2143
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 2,392
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 19,052
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 33,435
Total (Citizen & Perm. Res.) Degree Production = 412,434
Degree and Certification production exceeded employment growth by 69,704. Of course, these are just aggregates, and do not address the claim that these graduates are not majoring in the specialties which the U.S. employment market demands.
Analysis of educational production to specialty occupations growth:
While researching this blog-entry, I found that many college majors are relevant to more than one Computer-related occupation, I had to find a way to make order out of what appeared to be chaos.
The NAICS will re-order the (SOC 2000) Minor Group, "15-1000 Computer Specialists" to "15-1100 Computer Occupations" in 2010. The 2010 classification's Broad Groups are parent categories that contain Detailed Occupations which will be closely aligned with the (SIC) codes used in education.
2010 SOC Code and Title
Major Group
...... ...... Minor Group .
..... ...... ...... Broad Group
...... ...... ...... ...... Detailed Occupation
15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations
...... ...... 15-1100 Computer Occupations
...... ...... ...... 15-1110 Computer and Information Research Scientists
...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1111 Computer and Information Research Scientists
...... ...... ...... 15-1120 Computer and Information Analysts
...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1121 Computer Systems Analysts
...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1122 Information Security Analysts
...... ...... ...... 15-1130 Software Developers and Programmers
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1131 Computer Programmers
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1132 Software Developers, Applications
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software
...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 15-1134 Web Developers
...... ...... ...... 15-1140 Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1141 Database Administrators
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1142 Network and Computer Systems Administrators
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1143 Computer Network Architects
...... ...... ...... 15-1150 Computer Support Specialists
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1151 Computer User Support Specialists
...... ...... ............ ...... 15-1152 Computer Network Support Specialists
...... ...... ...... 15-1190 Miscellaneous Computer Occupations
...... ............ ............ 15-1199 Computer Occupations, All Other
I used the Broad Group levels to segregate the college majors and degree levels in the following categories for comparison to employment growth:
15-1110 Computer and Information Research Scientists (Doctorates req.)
15-1120 Computer and Information Analysts (Bachelors req. but used Master's)
15-1130 Software Developers and Programmers (Bachelors req.)
15-1140 Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects (Bachelors req.)
And combined the two following classifications:
15-1150 Computer Support Specialists (Associates req.)
15-1190 Miscellaneous Computer Occupations (Associates req.)
The following are the relevant fields of study/graduation data, organized to represent the parent (2010 SOC) occupational categories and relfecting degree paths referenced in the, "School To Employment Pathways System (STEPS)".
15-1110 Computer and Information Research Scientists
Scientists -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Doctorate Degrees
11.0103 Information Technology = 19
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General = 689
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst = 11
11.0401 Information Science/Studies = 171
11.0701 Computer Science = 724
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics = 17
51.2706 Medical Informatics = 24
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other = 87
Total Degrees for 15-1100 Scientists = 1,655
Total Employment Growth for 15-1100 Scientists = 720
15-1120 Computer and Information Analysts
Analysts -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Master's Degrees (min. req. is Bachelors)
11.0103 Information Technology = 1,546
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General = 9,663
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst = 586
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster = 10
Total Masters Degrees for 15-1120 Analysts = 11,805
Total Employment Growth for 15-1120 Analysts = (-2,230)
15-1130 Software Developers and Programmers
Programming -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Bachelor's Degree req.
11.0103 Information Technology
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
51.2706 Medical Informatics
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General
11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design
14.0901 Computer Engineering, General
14.0902 Computer Hardware Engineering
14.0903 Computer Software Engineering
15.1299 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians, Other
26.1103 Bioinformatics
51.0709 Medical Office Computer Specialist/Assistant
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0803 Computer Graphics
11.0899 Computer Software and Media Applications, Other
14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other
15.1201 Computer Engineering Technology/ Technician
15.1202 Computer Technology/Computer Systems Technology
15.1203 Computer Hardware Technology/Technician
15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician
26.1199 Biomathematics and Bioinformatics, Other
52.0208 E−Commerce/Electronic Commerce
Doctorate Degrees = 323
Master's Degrees = 19,911
Bachelor's Degrees = 91,294
Post−Master's Certificates = 124
Post−Baccalaureate Certificates = 874
Bachelors Degrees & greater w Post Grad Certs for 15-1120 Programmers = 112,526
Total Employment Growth for 15-110 Programmers = 104,430
Associate's Degrees = 113,172
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 652
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 7,358
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 10,380
Additional Assoc. level Degrees & Certs 15-1130 Programmers = 131,562
15-1140 Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects
Database and Network -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Bachelor's Degree req.
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0103 Information Technology
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security
11.1099 Computer/Information Technology Services Administration and Management, Other
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
52.1201 Management Information Systems, General
Doctorate Degrees = 47
Master's Degrees = 21,747
Bachelor's Degrees = 96,769
Post−Master's Certificates = 396
Post−Baccalaureate Certificates = 1,269
Total Degrees & Post Grad Certs for 15-1140 Database & Network = 120,228
Total Employment Growth for 15-1140 Database & Network = 119,130
Associate's Degrees = 16,834
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 182
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 2,725
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 4,224
Other Degrees & Certs 15-1140 Database & Network = 23,965
15-1150 Computer Support Specialists AND
15-1190 Miscellaneous Computer Occupations
Specialist & Misc -- Level of Degree or Other Award -- Associate Degree / Certification req.
01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0601 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, General
11.0602 Word Processing
11.0699 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, Other
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other
Associate's Degrees = 53,588
2 But Less Than 4 Year Certificates = 1,558
1 But Less Than 2 Year Certificates = 8,968
Less Than 1 Year Certificates = 18,663
Degrees & Certs Awarded for 15-1150 Specialists & 15-1190 Miscellaneous = 82,777
Employment Growth for 15-1150 Specialists & 15-1190 Miscellaneous = 120,680
At first glance, it may appear the there was a shortage of Support Specialists and Misc. Computer Occupations; however, there is 131,562 unused Associate level degrees and Certs in 15-1130 (Programming) and 23,965 Associate level degrees and Certs in 15-1140 (Database and Network)
My conclusion is that degree and certification levels are in line with market demand. Sadly, the H-1B and L-1 visa programs also exceed employment growth within the computer related occupations and Computer Science enrollment is declining because smart kids do their homework before choosing a college major.
Data:
OES Employment Growth:
"Bureau of Labor Statistics"
http://www.bls.gov/oes
15-1011 Computer and Information Scientists, Research
15-1021 Computer Programmers
15-1031 Computer Software Engineers, Applications
15-1032 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
15-1041 Computer Support Specialists
15-1051 Computer Systems Analysts
15-1061 Database Administrators
15-1071 Network and Computer Systems Administrators
15-1081 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts
15-1099 Computer Specialists, All Other
2010 Standard Occupational Classification
http://www.bls.gov/soc/soc_structure_2010.pdf
SOC occupation code to SIC educational code crosswalk:
"School To Employment Pathways System (STEPS)"
http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15
Educational Data:
"IPEDS Completion Survey NCES"
http://webcaspar.nsf.gov/
01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
11.0103 Information Technology
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General
11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
11.0601 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, General
11.0602 Word Processing
11.0699 Data Entry/Microcomputer Applications, Other
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration
11.0803 Computer Graphics
11.0899 Computer Software and Media Applications, Other
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster
11.1099 Computer/Information Technology Services Administration and Management, Other
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
14.0901 Computer Engineering, General
14.0902 Computer Hardware Engineering
14.0903 Computer Software Engineering
14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other
15.1201 Computer Engineering Technology/ Technician
15.1202 Computer Technology/Computer Systems Technology
15.1203 Computer Hardware Technology/Technician
15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician
15.1299 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians, Other
26.1103 Bioinformatics
26.1199 Biomathematics and Bioinformatics, Other
51.0709 Medical Office Computer Specialist/Assistant
51.2706 Medical Informatics
52.0208 E−Commerce/Electronic Commerce
52.1201 Management Information Systems, General
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other
Instead of creating a rather complicated database, I used a spreadsheet and color-coded occupational "Broad groups" and their college degrees acceptable to the occupations to ensure that I did not re-use/double-count any college degrees or certifications.
Author generated table from NCES DATA: click to enlarge
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