Friday, November 20, 2015

Immigration Moratorium; Chapter 1

Immigration Moratorium

  Chapter 1: College Outcomes vs. Employment Growth

Subjects: Immigration moratorium, employment, college outcome, unemployment, H-1B,Green Card

The high-skill immigration debate is turning toward stapling a Green Card to U.S. conferred degrees. (The globalists call them advanced degrees without any further specificity, so we'll assume bachelors degrees and above in this exercise.)
College Outcomes vs. Employment Growth cap and gown image

Instead of writing about H-1B, this exercise coaxes college outcome data out of BLS Employment growth statistics verses Permanent Resident and Citizen bachelor's degrees conferred (U.S.) to find a "Not Employed" rate.  

The following section in the table displays the bachelors degrees and above and how that  "Not Employed" rate is changed as we accept more (U.S. college educated) Temporary Residents (non-citizens).

Retirement for those 65 and older are subtracted from the U.S. degrees conferred yearly at the rate of their presence in the population for the subject year. (A generous deduction since this percentage grows yearly and those degrees were conferred 40 years ago).

Finally, the original Employment Growth data does not match the available educational data, I adjusted that "Not Employed" rate in the final section of the table.  (I'm not calling it an unemployment rate because it would not be technically accurate.)

Bachelors Degree Employment Outcomes Since 2000

Citizen and PermRes Bachelors Degrees Conferred (2000-13)20,720,142
Retirement (aging out) Bachelors Since December 1999-3,420,761

Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth17,299,381
BLS Employment Growth Bachelors (Dec. 1999 - Oct. 2015)16,189,000

Bachelors Degree Not Employed1,110,381
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent - U.S. only)6.42%

Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)
Bachelors 661,474

Not Employed Percent with TempRes Degrees Added
Bachelors 10.24%

Total Not Employed Bachelors (w Res and Non res.)17.01%

Rollback Employment to 2013 Levels (to match EDU data)13,876,381
Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth (U.S. Citizen and PermRes.)16,189,000

Bachelors Degree Not Employed (U.S.)2,312,619
Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)1,832,767

Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent)27.99%

Notes:  The number of Doctorate degrees conferred to Temporary Residents is miniscule over the 14 year period, 100% of the bachelors degrees are unnecessary as is some portion of the masters degrees.  The yearly average is 130,912.

Not all foreign students foreign student will be interested in staying, the current employment-based Green Card caps of 140,000 is adequate.  All temporary immigrant programs are likely unneeded.

* I noticed that when I rolled back the "Not Employed" to EOY 2013 levels, I did not subtract the 853,000 degree holders who had not yet retired.

Educational Data Source: 
Employment and Population Data Unadj. (Current Population Survey - CPS) Source:

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