Employment Growth vs. Population Growth by Decade

A very simple calculation reveals that the working age population (16 through 64), increased by 22 million in the first decade of the 21st century; employment growth for the decade was only 1 million jobs in the working age population. Total employment growth for the decade was only 3.2 million, two thirds of total employment growth went to persons 65 yrs. and older.

Disturbing economic data that the "headline" unemployment statistic (U-3) does not describe. Employment growth, verses population growth in the decade of 2000-09, seriously underperformed preceding decades. The under-performance was apparent before the employment contraction in 2008;  the May 2010 adjustments of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are now available, so I'm revisiting the topic.

Employment Growth vs. Population Growth by Decade:

The data we are looking at is the growth in Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) "Employment Levels" as compared to the BLS Civilian noninstitutional "Population" -- "Growth in Employment" and "Growth in Population" respectively. Growth in Population is our children and growth from immigration -- Growth in Employment is the net employment growth at the end of the decade.

Civilian noninstitutional population (Age 16 and over)

Click images to enlarge

Employment Growth to Population Growth: by Decade (Age 16 and Over)
(Numbers in Thousands)

1950's
Growth in Population = 11,516
Growth in Employment = 7,215

Growth: Employment to Population = 63%

1960's
Growth in Population = 19,449
Growth in Employment = 13,862

Growth: Employment to Population = 71%

1970's
Growth in Population = 30,811
Growth in Employment = 21,224

Growth: Employment to Population = 69%

1980's
Growth in Population = 20,865
Growth in Employment = 17,685

Growth: Employment to Population = 85%

1990's
Growth in Population = 21,667
Growth in Employment = 16,998

Growth: Employment to Population 78%

2000's
Growth in Population = 28,092
Growth in Employment = 3,257

Growth: Employment to Population = 12%

In the preceding table and graph we see that employment growth has fallen to 12% of population growth. The population growth includes all persons 16 and over, the following table excludes retirement age adults, showing only those age 16 to 64.

Civilian noninstitutional population (Age 16 through 64 )

Employment Growth to Population Growth: by Decade (Age 16 through 64)
(Numbers in Thousands)

1950's
Growth in Population = 7,559
Growth in Employment = 7,117

Growth: Employment to Population = 94%

1960's
Growth in Population = 15,772
Growth in Employment = 13,817

Growth: Employment to Population = 88%

1970's
Growth in Population = 25,569
Growth in Employment = 21,291

Growth: Employment to Population = 83.3%

1980's
Growth in Population = 15,470
Growth in Employment = 17,335

Growth: Employment to Population = 112%

1990's
Growth in Population = 18,591
Growth in Employment = 16,366

Growth: Employment to Population 88%

2000's
Growth in Population = 22,268
Growth in Employment = 1,048

Growth: Employment to Population = 5%

Only 1 million of 3.2 million jobs were assumed by working age adults -- ages 16 to 64. This is one job for every twenty-two new entrants into to workforce. For those persons of retirement age, 65 and older, the employment picture was a little different.

Civilian noninstitutional population (Age 65 and older)

Employment Growth to Population Growth: by Decade (Age 65 and Over)
(Numbers in Thousands)

1950's
Growth in Population = 3,957
Growth in Employment = 98

Growth: Employment to Population = 2%

1960's
Growth in Population = 3,677
Growth in Employment = 45

Growth: Employment to Population = 1%

1970's
Growth in Population = 5,242
Growth in Employment = (67)

Growth: Employment to Population = -1.3%

1980's
Growth in Population = 5,395
Growth in Employment = 350

Growth: Employment to Population = 6%

1990's
Growth in Population = 3,076
Growth in Employment = 632

Growth: Employment to Population 21%

2000's
Growth in Population = 5,824
Growth in Employment = 2,209

Growth: Employment to Population = 38%

From the data, there is no way to tell if the retirement age persons aged into this category in their current job, or re-entered the workforce.

In either case, shouldn't this trend in employment be represented in any and all talks about Comprehensive Immigration Reform?

(Note: A similar workup of pre-economic meltdown data located Here)

Let's end this blog with a quote:

"...we estimate that a total of almost 600,000 temporary visas authorizing employment were issued in 2008, including about 380,000 workers receiving one of the employment-based temporary visas primarily intended for work (H-1B, H-2A, H-2B, O, L)."
Aligning Temporary Immigration Visas With US Immigration Needs: The Case for a New System of Provisional Visas

Definition of a decade is Dec. 31, xxx9 to Dec. 31, xxx9
(The last day of the prior decade to the last day of the current decade)

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey


Series Id: LNU00000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level
Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Years: 1948 to 2010

Series Id: LNU02000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Years: 1948 to 2010

Series Id: LNU00000097
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Population Level - 65 yrs. & over
Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 65 years and over
Years: 1948 to 2010

Series Id: LNU02000097
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level - 65 yrs. & over
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 65 years and over
Years: 1948 to 2010