-
Employment levels in Computer-related occupations grew by 173,500 over 2011 and 2012.
-
Why did unemployment levels (comprised exclusively of experienced professionals) only decline by 6,667?
Sections:
Overview:
Less than 5% of experienced unemployed computer professionals become re-employed:
Historical employment levels in Computer-related occupations:
Sources for IT talent acquisition in Computer-related occupations:
Appendix A:
Data resources:
Overview:
Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) indicates that unemployed computer professionals are benefiting from less than 5% of 173,500 in new jobs created in the recovery of 2011-12. These are experienced professionals who are actively seeking employment and have not (yet) taken employment in another field to get by.
To qualify for the CPS occupational unemployment statistic, the unemployed professional must have held a position in the occupation as their last job. Thus, these unemployment statistics do not include new college graduates or discouraged professionals who have given up looking for work. Additionally, if a computer professional takes a construction job and becomes unemployed s/he is no longer included on the Computer-related unemployment statistic.
Pro-guest worker pundits present seemingly low unemployment numbers for the Computer-related occupations and leave the reader, or Congressman, to errantly assume the CPS occupational statistic is comparable to the “headline” unemployment statistic, which is not filtered by occupation, or the prior job function performed.
Considering the fact that the CPS unemployment levels can only include experienced professionals, we can measure the change in unemployment levels in direct comparison with the change in employment. In simple terms, “How much do unemployment levels (comprised of only experienced professionals) go down when employment levels go up?”
Less than 5% of experienced unemployed become re-employed
Methodology: Table 1 displays occupational averages of the employment and unemployment level (growth – loss) aggregates from two years of CPS data. (See Appendix A)
-
Quarter I 2011 is subtracted from Quarter I 2012
-
Quarter II 2011 is subtracted from Quarter II 2012
-
Quarter III 2011 is subtracted from Quarter III 2012
-
Quarter IV 2011 is subtracted from Quarter IV 2012
From 2011 forward, Computer-related occupations reflect the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
Instructions provided with the Current Population Survey: “Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”
Table 1 displays the averages of aggregate tables produced from the 2011 and 2012, quarterly reports. The instructions provided with the CPS data cautions that the data should be “smoothed” over four Quarters due to variations in sampling levels. Effectively, Table 1 and Table 2, represent 2 years of smoothed data -- Quarter I 2011 through Quarter IV 2012.
Table 1 (Growth – Loss Computer-related occupations 2011-12)
| Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Qtr I 2011 through Qtr IV 2012 | |||
| Eight Quarters Smoothed | Growth Loss | ||
| Employed | Unemployed | ||
| Computer and information research scientists | 8,750 | NA | |
| Computer systems analysts | 51,750 | 7,250 | |
| Information security analysts | 7,500 | NA | |
| Computer programmers | 20,750 | 4,750 | |
| Software developers, applications and systems software | 38,000 | -12,250 | |
| Web developers | 8,000 | -750 | |
| Computer support specialists | 14,750 | -2,750 | |
| Database administrators | -32,500 | 1,333 | |
| Network and computer systems administrators | -7,250 | -250 | |
| Computer network architects | 29,500 | NA | |
| Computer occupations, all other | 34,250 | -4,000 | |
| Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed | 173,500 | -6,667 | 3.84% |
NA: Unemployment data not reported for one or more quarter (CPS quarters are calendar based)
Table 1 displays the average of eight 2011 and 2012 CPS occupational reports.
The average employment growth for the period is 173,500, yet unemployment levels, comprised exclusively of experienced professionals, declined by only 6,667. The result, is that only 3.84% of new employment growth went to officially unemployed professionals with experience in the occupation.
Notably, unemployment increased in “Computer systems analysts” and “Computer programmers” while employment also increased.
In Table 2 (below), employment growth and loss is removed from the three occupations where the CPS unemployment level was not reported in one or more Quarters.
Table 2 (Growth – Loss Computer-related occupations 2011-12 (Isolated occupations))
| Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Qtr I 2011 through Qtr IV 2012 | |||
| Eight Quarters Smoothed | Growth Loss | ||
| Employed | Unemployed | ||
| Computer and information research scientists | NA | NA | |
| Computer systems analysts | 51,750 | 7,250 | |
| Information security analysts | NA | NA | |
| Computer programmers | 20,750 | 4,750 | |
| Software developers, applications and systems software | 38,000 | -12,250 | |
| Web developers | 8,000 | -750 | |
| Computer support specialists | 14,750 | -2,750 | |
| Database administrators | -21,000 | 1,333 | |
| Network and computer systems administrators | -7,250 | -250 | |
| Computer network architects | NA | NA | |
| Computer occupations, all other | 34,250 | -4,000 | |
| Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed | 139,250 | -6,667 | 4.79% |
NA: Unemployment data not reported for one or more quarter (CPS quarters are calendar based)
Table 2 produces a slightly more favorable outcome for experienced professionals, however, the data still indicates that some 95% of employment growth almost certainly went to inexperienced college graduates and/or temporary foreign-workers. (Temporary foreign workers have first “dibs” on new employment as the necessary provision for entrance into the U.S.)
Conservatively, out of 139,250 new Computer-related jobs, only 6,667 (4.79%) were filled by experienced professionals who qualified as unemployed (actively seeking employment).
Observations from Table 2
-
Computer systems analysts employment levels increased, but unemployment levels also increased.
-
Software developer, applications and systems software professionals had a 1 in 3 probability of becoming re-employed
-
Computer programmers employment levels increased, but unemployment levels also increased
-
Web developers had a 1 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed
-
Computer support specialists had roughly a 2 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed
-
Database administrators employment levels declined and unemployment levels also increased
-
Computer occupation, all other had a little better than 1 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed
Historical employment levels in Computer-related occupations
Historical employment growth for Computer-related occupations was only 16,545 per year from 2000 to 2010. An average of 84,160, Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to citizens and permanent residents annually.
New H-1B visas in Computer-related occupations averaged 53,204 per year from 2000 to 2011. Additionally, H-1B visa holders can adjust status to become permanent residents, so temporary immigration is a solution to a problem that does not exist.
Table 3
| Computer-related Employed (000s) | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Computer scientists and systems analysts | 835 | 734 | 682 | 722 | 700 | 745 | 715 | 825 | 837 | 759 | 784 |
| Computer programmers | 745 | 689 | 630 | 563 | 564 | 581 | 562 | 526 | 534 | 498 | 470 |
| Computer software engineers | 739 | 745 | 715 | 758 | 813 | 832 | 846 | 907 | 1034 | 952 | 1026 |
| Computer support specialists | 350 | 355 | 353 | 330 | 325 | 334 | 314 | 332 | 382 | 384 | 388 |
| Database administrators | 54 | 66 | 84 | 72 | 94 | 89 | 90 | 104 | 93 | 110 | 101 |
| Network and computer systems administrators | 154 | 185 | 179 | 176 | 190 | 200 | 180 | 214 | 227 | 207 | 229 |
| Network systems and data communications analysts | 305 | 353 | 328 | 359 | 312 | 322 | 356 | 383 | 422 | 401 | 366 |
| Computer-related Employment Levels | 3,182 | 3,127 | 2,971 | 2,980 | 2,998 | 3,103 | 3,063 | 3,291 | 3,529 | 3,311 | 3,364 |
| Employment Level Change 2000 – 2010 | 182,000 | ||||||||||
| Average Employment growth 2000 – 2010 | 16,545 | ||||||||||
| Employment Level Low (2003) | 2,980,000 | ||||||||||
| Employment Level High (2008) | 3,529,000 | ||||||||||
| High – Low Fluctuation | 549,000 | 15.6% | |||||||||
| Sustained Change (2000 to 2010) | 182,000 | 5.2% | |||||||||
| Disposable workforce | 367,000 | 10.4% | |||||||||
Between 2006 and 2008 employment levels in Computer-related occupations grew by 466,000 (15.21%). Even at this rate of expansion, unemployment levels went from 2.3% in to 2006 to 2.8% during the peak of employment in 2008. In 2009, employment levels dropped by 218,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 5.5%, 2.4 times the 2006 unemployment rate.
Table 4 Unemployment rates
| Unemployment | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Computer scientists and systems analysts | 2.3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 5.9 |
| Computer programmers | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| Computer software engineers | 1.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Computer support specialists | 3.4 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 7.7 |
| Database administrators | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| Network and computer systems administrators | 1.3 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 5.4 |
| Network systems and data communications analysts | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Average Unemployment | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
NOTE: Unemployment for occupations refers to the experienced unemployed (those with prior work experience), classified according to their last job.
This SOC-based occupational classification system was introduced in 2003 and comparable data are available only back to 2000.
SOURCE: Current Population Survey (CPS), Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sources for IT talent acquisition in Computer-related occupations
|
|
|
|
|
| Total = 291,174 |
Table 5: Unemployed – actively seeking employment with experience in field as last position
| 2011 Unemployed by Qtr. | 2012 Unemployed by Qtr. | ||
| I | 159,000 | I | 166,000 |
| II | 128,000 | II | 138,000 |
| III | 151,000 | III | 134,000 |
| IV | 144,000 | IV | 130,000 |
| Avg. | 145,500 | Avg. | 142,000 |
Table 6: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to Citizens and Permanent Residents.
| U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents:Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race | |||||
| Year | Doctorate Degrees | Master's Degrees | Bachelor's Degrees | Associate's Degrees | Total |
| 1999 | 471 | 7,438 | 28,165 | 18,768 | 54,842 |
| 2000 | 402 | 8,362 | 34,619 | 23,085 | 66,468 |
| 2001 | 395 | 9,091 | 40,192 | 29,396 | 79,074 |
| 2002 | 410 | 9,252 | 45,797 | 34,553 | 90,012 |
| 2003 | 413 | 10,423 | 53,072 | 45,392 | 109,300 |
| 2004 | 455 | 11,312 | 54,908 | 41,281 | 107,956 |
| 2005 | 500 | 10,975 | 50,597 | 35,766 | 97,838 |
| 2006 | 551 | 10,489 | 44,901 | 30,981 | 86,922 |
| 2007 | 680 | 10,027 | 40,163 | 27,543 | 78,413 |
| 2008 | 518 | 9,746 | 37,118 | 28,159 | 75,541 |
| 2009 | 456 | 9,641 | 36,677 | 29,751 | 76,525 |
| 2010 | NA | 10,066 | 38,240 | 32,229 | 80,535 |
| 2011 | NA | 10,786 | 41,558 | 37,356 | 89,700 |
| Total | 5,251 | 127,608 | 546,007 | 414,260 | 1,093,126 |
| Average yr. | 477 | 9,816 | 42,001 | 31,866 | 84,160 |
(NCES population of institutions)
Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services
Table 7: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to Temporary Residents.
| Temporary Residents: Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race | |||||
| Year | Doctorate Degrees | Master's Degrees | Bachelor's Degrees | Associate's Degrees | Total |
| 1999 | 334 | 5,378 | 2,260 | 404 | 8,376 |
| 2000 | 375 | 6,624 | 2,900 | 491 | 10,390 |
| 2001 | 373 | 7,761 | 3,405 | 717 | 12,256 |
| 2002 | 340 | 7,713 | 3,909 | 1,025 | 12,987 |
| 2003 | 403 | 9,167 | 4,854 | 1,178 | 15,602 |
| 2004 | 455 | 8,896 | 5,060 | 1,042 | 15,453 |
| 2005 | 621 | 7,514 | 3,991 | 785 | 12,911 |
| 2006 | 865 | 6,649 | 3,099 | 550 | 11,163 |
| 2007 | 917 | 6,287 | 2,433 | 428 | 10,065 |
| 2008 | 820 | 7,405 | 1,804 | 404 | 10,433 |
| 2009 | 507 | 8,347 | 1,819 | 489 | 11,162 |
| 2010 | NA | 7,955 | 1,867 | 503 | 10,325 |
| 2011 | NA | 8,733 | 2,028 | 555 | 11,316 |
| Total | 6,010 | 98,429 | 39,429 | 8,571 | 152,439 |
| Average yr. | 546 | 7,571 | 3,033 | 659 | 11,810 |
(NCES population of institutions)
Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services
Table 8: H-1B Visa Initial Employment Approvals (Avg. Comp-related 53,204 per year)
| H-1B Initial Employment in Computer-related occupations (3 year visa) | |||
| Fiscal Year | Initial Employment | Computer-Related Occupations | Percent |
| 2000 | 135,362 | 74,551 | 55.1% |
| 2001 | 200,116 | 110,713 | 55.3% |
| 2002 | 102,667 | 25,637 | 25.0% |
| 2003 | 104,458 | 28,879 | 27.6% |
| 2004 | 129,703 | 56,559 | 43.6% |
| 2005 | 115,662 | 52,352 | 45.3% |
| 2006 | 109,408 | 56,393 | 51.5% |
| 2007 | 119,813 | 62,268 | 52.0% |
| 2008 | 109,228 | 58,074 | 53.2% |
| 2009 | 86,062 | 29,793 | 34.6% |
| 2010 | 75,825 | 31,661 | 41.8% |
| 2011 | 106,445 | 51,570 | 48.4% |
| Totals | 1,394,749 | 638,450 | 45.8% |
| Source: USCIS Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 20xx[23] | |||
Appendix A
The following Occupational Growth – Loss tables were uses to create Table 1 and Table 2.
From Quarter I 2011 to Quarter I 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 220,000 unemployment decreased by 2,000
| Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q1 2011 to Q1 2012 | |||
| Growth Loss | |||
| Employed | Unemployed | ||
| Computer and information research scientists | 10,000 | NA | |
| Computer systems analysts | 65,000 | 7,000 | |
| Information security analysts | 4,000 | NA | |
| Computer programmers | 59,000 | -3,000 | |
| Software developers, applications and systems software | -34,000 | -11,000 | |
| Web developers | 54,000 | 5,000 | |
| Computer support specialists | -32,000 | -5,000 | |
| Database administrators | -67,000 | NA | |
| Network and computer systems administrators | -3,000 | 2,000 | |
| Computer network architects | 23,000 | NA | |
| Computer occupations, all other | 141,000 | 3,000 | |
| Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed | 220,000 | -2,000 | -0.91% |
From Quarter II 2011 to Quarter II 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 61,000 unemployment increased by 10,000
| Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q2 2011 to Q2 2012 | |||
| Growth Loss | |||
| Employed | Unemployed | ||
| Computer and information research scientists | 11,000 | NA | |
| Computer systems analysts | 53,000 | 8,000 | |
| Information security analysts | -3,000 | NA | |
| Computer programmers | 29,000 | 2,000 | |
| Software developers, applications and systems software | -28,000 | -16,000 | |
| Web developers | -12,000 | -4,000 | |
| Computer support specialists | 55,000 | 4,000 | |
| Database administrators | -55,000 | 2,000 | |
| Network and computer systems administrators | -36,000 | 7,000 | |
| Computer network architects | 52,000 | 0 | |
| Computer occupations, all other | -5,000 | 7,000 | |
| Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed | 61,000 | 10,000 | 16.39% |
From Quarter III 2011 to Quarter III 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 83,000 unemployment decreased by 21,000
| Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q3 2011 to Q3 2012 | |||
| Growth Loss | |||
| Employed | Unemployed | ||
| Computer and information research scientists | 16,000 | NA | |
| Computer systems analysts | 37,000 | 9,000 | |
| Information security analysts | 15,000 | NA | |
| Computer programmers | -4,000 | 15,000 | |
| Software developers, applications and systems software | 52,000 | -10,000 | |
| Web developers | -13,000 | -3,000 | |
| Computer support specialists | -2,000 | -5,000 | |
| Database administrators | -17,000 | 1,000 | |
| Network and computer systems administrators | -3,000 | -7,000 | |
| Computer network architects | 8,000 | NA | |
| Computer occupations, all other | -6,000 | -21,000 | |
| Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed | 83,000 | -21,000 | -25.30% |
From Quarter IV 2011 to Quarter IV 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 330,000 unemployment decreased by 13,000
| Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q4 2011 to Q4 2012 | |||
| Growth Loss | |||
| Employed | Unemployed | ||
| Computer and information research scientists | -2,000 | NA | |
| Computer systems analysts | 52,000 | 5,000 | |
| Information security analysts | 14,000 | NA | |
| Computer programmers | -1,000 | 5,000 | |
| Software developers, applications and systems software | 162,000 | -12,000 | |
| Web developers | 3,000 | -1,000 | |
| Computer support specialists | 38,000 | -5,000 | |
| Database administrators | 9,000 | 1,000 | |
| Network and computer systems administrators | 13,000 | -3,000 | |
| Computer network architects | 35,000 | 2,000 | |
| Computer occupations, all other | 7,000 | -5,000 | |
| Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed | 330,000 | -13,000 | -3.94% |
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B) Link
Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas (Detailed Breakdown) (Including Crewlist Visas and Border Crossing Cards) Fiscal Years 2007 – 2011 http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/NIVClassIssued-DetailedFY2007-2011.pdf
Office of the Inspector General, “Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program“ http://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/Mgmt/OIG_06-22_Jan06.pdf
Institute of International Education. (2012). "International Students by Academic Level, 2010/11 – 2011/12."
Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange. Retrieved from http://www.iie.org/opendoors
“Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services” degrees are specific to the occupational group 15-1xxx Computer-related occupations. http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15
California Post Secondary Education Committee http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15
Current Population Survey occupational data is available on request from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Instructions provided with the Current Population Survey, Occupational statistics include, “Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”
No comments:
Post a Comment