Computer Occupations 2013: Winners & Losers

Winners and losers in the Computer-occupations for May 2013 from the BLS, Occupational Employment Statistics.  The overall employment level growth for the period was, 116,620.  In comparison, Employment growth for the prior year was 143,890  (May 2011 to May 2012).

					Educational Requirement
Occupation code	Occupation title	Level	Employment 2013	Employment 2012	Associate	Bachelor	Postgrad
15-1100	Computer Occupations	minor	3,573,120	3,456,500	22,620	94,500	-500
15-1111	Computer and Information Research Scientists	detail	24,380	24,880			-500
15-1120	Computer and Information Analysts	broad	585,120
15-1121	Computer Systems Analysts	detail	507,100	482,040		25,060
15-1122	Information Security Analysts	detail	78,020	72,670		5,350
15-1130	Software Developers and Programmers	broad	1,442,500
15-1131	Computer Programmers	detail	312,340	316,790		-4,450
15-1132	Software Developers, Applications	detail	643,830	586,340		57,490
15-1133	Software Developers, Systems Software	detail	373,510	391,700		-18,190
15-1134	Web Developers	detail	112,820	102,940	9,880
15-1140	Database and Systems Administrators and Network Architects	broad	618,480
15-1141	Database Administrators	detail	114,910	111,590		3,320
15-1142	Network and Computer Systems Administrators	detail	362,310	350,320		11,990
15-1143	Computer Network Architects	detail	141,270	137,890		3,380
15-1150	Computer Support Specialists	broad	706,360
15-1151	Computer User Support Specialists	detail	541,250	525,630	15,620
15-1152	Computer Network Support Specialists	detail	165,100	167,980	-2,880
15-1199	Computer Occupations, All Other	detail	196,280	185,730		10,550
					22,620	94,500	-500

The May 2013 Occupational Employment Statistics data were released on April 1, 2014 and are available at www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm.

STEM Crisis Myth

Three points of interest in this post.

A very good write-up on IEEE Spectrum, I hope they don’t mind that I’m using their image to encourage you to read their article.

The STEM Crisis Is a Myth

By Robert N. Charette
Posted 30 Aug 2013 | 19:28 GMT

 

“A Matter of Supply vs. Demand: Every year U.S. schools grant more STEM degrees than there are available jobs. When you factor in H-1B visa holders, existing STEM degree holders, and the like, it’s hard to make a case that there’s a STEM labor shortage.”

http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth

 

Computer Occupations & H-1B Report 2012

135,966 H-1B initial employment approvals in FY 2012

• In 2012, the H-1B cap of 85,000 was exceeded by 53,446. 
• 83,444(61.4%) of 135,966 initial employment approvals, in known occupations, went to Computer-related occupations
• Another 924 employment approvals went to Occupations unknown for a total of  136,890 employment approvals. 

Findings:

At the core of the temporary immigration problem is the static USCIS definition of the Specialty Occupation.  With a static definition of occupations that are open to temporary immigration, we can be assured that work authorizations will be wasted in occupations where they are unneeded, while industries having a genuine need will clamor for higher immigration rates .  Moreover, the temporary immigration programs are completely insensitive to occupational unemployment rates and current degree production.  Adding workforce capacity to occupations where employment levels are declining is –- flat stupid. 
USCIS still reports to Congress using the out of print Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT), there is no way to crosswalk DOT occupational titles to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) titles because many titles did not exist at the DOT last printing in 1991. The Bureau of Labor Statistics abandoned the DOT in 1998.

The US now has the capability to determine if individual occupational levels are growing,  if growth in an occupation is stagnant or declining it would be a very trivial process to ‘close’ the occupation to temporary immigration, thus freeing up visas for occupations that are experiencing growth. 

The one year (occupation specific) temporary immigration hiatus would reduce unemployment costs, student loan defaults and home loan foreclosures because it would provide a one year period where employers would be motivated to hire from the unemployment roles if they wish to participate in the early stages of recovery from economic recession(s).

IT Industry Refuses Unemployed Professionals

 

• Employment levels in Computer-related occupations grew by 173,500 over 2011 and 2012.

• Why did unemployment levels (comprised exclusively of experienced professionals) only decline by 6,667?

Sections:

Overview:
Less than 5% of experienced unemployed computer professionals become re-employed:
Historical employment levels in Computer-related occupations:
Sources for IT talent acquisition in Computer-related occupations:
Appendix A:
Data resources:

Overview:

Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) indicates that unemployed computer professionals are benefiting from less than 5% of 173,500 in new jobs created in the recovery of 2011-12.  These are experienced professionals who are actively seeking employment and have not (yet) taken employment in another field to get by.

To qualify for the CPS occupational unemployment statistic, the unemployed professional must have held a position in the occupation as their last job.  Thus, these unemployment statistics do not include new college graduates or discouraged professionals who have given up looking for work. Additionally, if a computer professional takes a construction job and becomes unemployed s/he is no longer included on the Computer-related unemployment statistic.

Pro-guest worker pundits present seemingly low unemployment numbers for the Computer-related  occupations and leave the reader, or Congressman, to errantly assume the CPS occupational statistic is comparable to the “headline” unemployment statistic, which is not filtered by occupation, or the prior job function performed.

Considering the fact that the CPS unemployment levels can only include experienced professionals, we can measure the change in unemployment levels in direct comparison with the change in employment.  In simple terms, “How much do unemployment levels (comprised of only experienced professionals) go down when employment levels go up?”  

Less than 5% of experienced unemployed become re-employed

Methodology: Table 1 displays occupational averages of the employment and unemployment level (growth – loss) aggregates from two years of CPS data. (See Appendix A)

• Quarter I 2011 is subtracted from Quarter I 2012

• Quarter II 2011 is subtracted from Quarter II 2012

• Quarter III 2011 is subtracted from Quarter III 2012

• Quarter IV 2011 is subtracted from Quarter IV 2012

From 2011 forward, Computer-related occupations reflect the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).

Instructions provided with the Current Population Survey: “Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”

Table 1 displays the averages of aggregate tables produced from the 2011 and 2012, quarterly reports. The instructions provided with the CPS data cautions that the data should be “smoothed” over four Quarters due to variations in sampling levels. Effectively, Table 1 and Table 2, represent 2 years of smoothed data -- Quarter I 2011 through Quarter IV 2012.

Table 1 (Growth – Loss Computer-related occupations 2011-12)

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Qtr I 2011 through Qtr IV 2012
Eight Quarters Smoothed	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	8,750	NA
Computer systems analysts	51,750	7,250
Information security analysts	7,500	NA
Computer programmers	20,750	4,750
Software developers, applications and systems software	38,000	-12,250
Web developers	8,000	-750
Computer support specialists	14,750	-2,750
Database administrators	-32,500	1,333
Network and computer systems administrators	-7,250	-250
Computer network architects	29,500	NA
Computer occupations, all other	34,250	-4,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	173,500	-6,667	3.84%

NA: Unemployment data not reported for one or more quarter (CPS quarters are calendar based)
Table 1 displays the average of eight 2011 and 2012 CPS occupational reports. 

The average employment growth for the period is 173,500, yet unemployment levels, comprised exclusively of experienced professionals, declined by only 6,667. The result, is that only 3.84% of new employment growth went to officially unemployed professionals with experience in the occupation.

Notably, unemployment increased in “Computer systems analysts” and “Computer programmers” while employment also increased.

In Table 2 (below),  employment growth and loss is removed from the three occupations where the CPS unemployment level was not reported in one or more Quarters.

Table 2 (Growth – Loss Computer-related occupations 2011-12 (Isolated occupations))

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Qtr I 2011 through Qtr IV 2012
Eight Quarters Smoothed	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	NA	NA
Computer systems analysts	51,750	7,250
Information security analysts	NA	NA
Computer programmers	20,750	4,750
Software developers, applications and systems software	38,000	-12,250
Web developers	8,000	-750
Computer support specialists	14,750	-2,750
Database administrators	-21,000	1,333
Network and computer systems administrators	-7,250	-250
Computer network architects	NA	NA
Computer occupations, all other	34,250	-4,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	139,250	-6,667	4.79%

NA: Unemployment data not reported for one or more quarter (CPS quarters are calendar based)

Table 2 produces a slightly more favorable outcome for experienced professionals, however, the data still indicates that some 95% of employment growth almost certainly went to inexperienced college graduates and/or temporary foreign-workers.   (Temporary foreign workers have first “dibs” on new employment as the necessary provision for entrance into the U.S.)

Conservatively, out of 139,250 new Computer-related jobs, only 6,667 (4.79%) were filled by experienced professionals who qualified as unemployed (actively seeking employment).

Observations from Table 2

• Computer systems analysts employment levels increased, but unemployment levels also increased.

• Software developer, applications and systems software professionals had a 1 in 3 probability of becoming re-employed

• Computer programmers employment levels increased, but unemployment levels also increased

• Web developers had a 1 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed

• Computer support specialists had roughly a 2 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed

• Database administrators employment levels declined and unemployment levels also increased

• Computer occupation, all other had a little better than 1 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed

Historical employment levels in  Computer-related occupations

Historical employment growth for Computer-related occupations was only 16,545 per year from 2000 to 2010. An average of 84,160, Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to citizens and permanent residents annually.

New H-1B visas in Computer-related occupations averaged 53,204 per year from 2000 to 2011. Additionally, H-1B visa holders can adjust status to become permanent residents, so temporary immigration is a solution to a problem that does not exist.

Table 3

Computer-related Employed (000s)	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Computer scientists and systems analysts	835	734	682	722	700	745	715	825	837	759	784
Computer programmers	745	689	630	563	564	581	562	526	534	498	470
Computer software engineers	739	745	715	758	813	832	846	907	1034	952	1026
Computer support specialists	350	355	353	330	325	334	314	332	382	384	388
Database administrators	54	66	84	72	94	89	90	104	93	110	101
Network and computer systems administrators	154	185	179	176	190	200	180	214	227	207	229
Network systems and data communications analysts	305	353	328	359	312	322	356	383	422	401	366
Computer-related Employment Levels	3,182	3,127	2,971	2,980	2,998	3,103	3,063	3,291	3,529	3,311	3,364
Employment Level Change 2000 – 2010	182,000
Average Employment growth 2000 – 2010	16,545
Employment Level Low (2003)	2,980,000
Employment Level High (2008)	3,529,000
High – Low Fluctuation	549,000	15.6%
Sustained Change (2000 to 2010)	182,000	5.2%
Disposable workforce	367,000	10.4%

Between 2006 and 2008 employment levels in Computer-related occupations grew by 466,000 (15.21%).  Even at this rate of  expansion, unemployment levels went from 2.3% in to 2006 to 2.8% during the peak of employment in 2008.  In 2009, employment levels dropped by 218,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 5.5%,  2.4 times the 2006 unemployment rate.

Table 4 Unemployment rates

Unemployment	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Computer scientists and systems analysts	2.3	2.8	4.4	5.2	3.9	3.1	2.7	2.2	2.3	6.1	5.9
Computer programmers	2.0	4.0	6.1	6.4	5.8	2.3	2.4	2.2	3.6	4.8	5.7
Computer software engineers	1.7	4.2	4.7	5.2	3.3	2.4	2.1	1.8	1.7	4.5	4.6
Computer support specialists	3.4	4.2	5.4	5.4	4.6	3.4	3.4	3.9	3.9	6.2	7.7
Database administrators	3.0	2.6	2.9	6.6	2.0	4.4	0.4	0.8	2.2	4.7	2.9
Network and computer systems administrators	1.3	2.1	6.0	5.3	3.4	3.9	2.5	2.3	3.0	7.0	5.4
Network systems and data communications analysts	2.8	4.6	4.3	6.5	5.8	3.8	2.6	1.6	3.0	5.1	4.4
Average Unemployment	2.4	3.5	4.8	5.8	4.1	3.3	2.3	2.1	2.8	5.5	5.2

NOTE:  Unemployment for occupations refers to the experienced unemployed (those with prior work experience), classified according to their last job.
This SOC-based occupational classification system was introduced in 2003 and comparable data are available only back to 2000.
SOURCE:  Current Population Survey (CPS), Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

Sources for IT talent acquisition in Computer-related occupations 

Average (Experienced) Unemployed (2012) = 142,000

Average US Citizen/Perm Resident CS & CIS degrees = 84,160

Average Temporary Resident CS & CIS degrees = 11,810

Average Comp-related new H-1B visa = 53,204

Average Comp-related new L-1 visa = Undisclosed by USCIS

Total = 291,174

 Table 5: Unemployed – actively seeking employment with experience in field as last position

2011 Unemployed by Qtr.		2012 Unemployed by Qtr.
I	159,000	I	166,000
II	128,000	II	138,000
III	151,000	III	134,000
IV	144,000	IV	130,000
Avg.	145,500	Avg.	142,000

Table 6: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to Citizens and Permanent Residents.

U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents:Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race
Year	Doctorate Degrees	Master's Degrees	Bachelor's Degrees	Associate's Degrees	Total
1999	471	7,438	28,165	18,768	54,842
2000	402	8,362	34,619	23,085	66,468
2001	395	9,091	40,192	29,396	79,074
2002	410	9,252	45,797	34,553	90,012
2003	413	10,423	53,072	45,392	109,300
2004	455	11,312	54,908	41,281	107,956
2005	500	10,975	50,597	35,766	97,838
2006	551	10,489	44,901	30,981	86,922
2007	680	10,027	40,163	27,543	78,413
2008	518	9,746	37,118	28,159	75,541
2009	456	9,641	36,677	29,751	76,525
2010	NA	10,066	38,240	32,229	80,535
2011	NA	10,786	41,558	37,356	89,700
Total	5,251	127,608	546,007	414,260	1,093,126
Average yr.	477	9,816	42,001	31,866	84,160

(NCES population of institutions)
Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services

Table 7: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to Temporary Residents.

Temporary Residents: Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race
Year	Doctorate Degrees	Master's Degrees	Bachelor's Degrees	Associate's Degrees	Total
1999	334	5,378	2,260	404	8,376
2000	375	6,624	2,900	491	10,390
2001	373	7,761	3,405	717	12,256
2002	340	7,713	3,909	1,025	12,987
2003	403	9,167	4,854	1,178	15,602
2004	455	8,896	5,060	1,042	15,453
2005	621	7,514	3,991	785	12,911
2006	865	6,649	3,099	550	11,163
2007	917	6,287	2,433	428	10,065
2008	820	7,405	1,804	404	10,433
2009	507	8,347	1,819	489	11,162
2010	NA	7,955	1,867	503	10,325
2011	NA	8,733	2,028	555	11,316
Total	6,010	98,429	39,429	8,571	152,439
Average yr.	546	7,571	3,033	659	11,810

(NCES population of institutions)
Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services

 

Table 8: H-1B Visa Initial Employment Approvals (Avg. Comp-related 53,204 per year)

H-1B Initial Employment in Computer-related occupations (3 year visa)
Fiscal Year	Initial Employment	Computer-Related Occupations	Percent
2000	135,362	74,551	55.1%
2001	200,116	110,713	55.3%
2002	102,667	25,637	25.0%
2003	104,458	28,879	27.6%
2004	129,703	56,559	43.6%
2005	115,662	52,352	45.3%
2006	109,408	56,393	51.5%
2007	119,813	62,268	52.0%
2008	109,228	58,074	53.2%
2009	86,062	29,793	34.6%
2010	75,825	31,661	41.8%
2011	106,445	51,570	48.4%
Totals	1,394,749	638,450	45.8%
Source: USCIS Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 20xx[23]

 

Appendix A

The following Occupational Growth – Loss tables were uses to create Table 1 and Table 2.

From Quarter I 2011 to Quarter I 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 220,000 unemployment decreased by 2,000

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q1 2011 to Q1 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	10,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	65,000	7,000
Information security analysts	4,000	NA
Computer programmers	59,000	-3,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	-34,000	-11,000
Web developers	54,000	5,000
Computer support specialists	-32,000	-5,000
Database administrators	-67,000	NA
Network and computer systems administrators	-3,000	2,000
Computer network architects	23,000	NA
Computer occupations, all other	141,000	3,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	220,000	-2,000	-0.91%

From Quarter II 2011 to Quarter II 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 61,000 unemployment increased by 10,000

 

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q2 2011 to Q2 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	11,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	53,000	8,000
Information security analysts	-3,000	NA
Computer programmers	29,000	2,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	-28,000	-16,000
Web developers	-12,000	-4,000
Computer support specialists	55,000	4,000
Database administrators	-55,000	2,000
Network and computer systems administrators	-36,000	7,000
Computer network architects	52,000	0
Computer occupations, all other	-5,000	7,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	61,000	10,000	16.39%

From Quarter III 2011 to Quarter III 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 83,000 unemployment decreased by 21,000

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q3 2011 to Q3 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	16,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	37,000	9,000
Information security analysts	15,000	NA
Computer programmers	-4,000	15,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	52,000	-10,000
Web developers	-13,000	-3,000
Computer support specialists	-2,000	-5,000
Database administrators	-17,000	1,000
Network and computer systems administrators	-3,000	-7,000
Computer network architects	8,000	NA
Computer occupations, all other	-6,000	-21,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	83,000	-21,000	-25.30%

From Quarter IV 2011 to Quarter IV 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 330,000 unemployment decreased by 13,000

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q4 2011 to Q4 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	-2,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	52,000	5,000
Information security analysts	14,000	NA
Computer programmers	-1,000	5,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	162,000	-12,000
Web developers	3,000	-1,000
Computer support specialists	38,000	-5,000
Database administrators	9,000	1,000
Network and computer systems administrators	13,000	-3,000
Computer network architects	35,000	2,000
Computer occupations, all other	7,000	-5,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	330,000	-13,000	-3.94%

Data resources:

Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B) Link

Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas (Detailed Breakdown) (Including Crewlist Visas and Border Crossing Cards) Fiscal Years 2007 – 2011 http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/NIVClassIssued-DetailedFY2007-2011.pdf

Office of the Inspector General, “Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program“ http://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/Mgmt/OIG_06-22_Jan06.pdf

Institute of International Education. (2012). "International Students by Academic Level, 2010/11 – 2011/12."

Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange. Retrieved from http://www.iie.org/opendoors

“Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services” degrees are specific to the occupational group 15-1xxx Computer-related occupations. http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15

California Post Secondary Education Committee http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15

Current Population Survey occupational data is available on request from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Instructions provided with the Current Population Survey, Occupational statistics include, “Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”