Friday, May 17, 2013

Updated: Employment vs. population growth by decade

5/12/2013

A snapshot of the employment situation  for our children and immigrants.

Back in June of 2010, we found that only 1 job new job for each 20 new persons of working age were created in the decade 2000 to 2010.  Effectively a 95% jobless rate among this segment of the population.
This post revisits the “Employment vs. Population Growth” concept. Lower immigration rates and better employment growth since 2010 has only adjusted the working age jobless rate to 79.5% for the new century.
A funny thing happened after the creation of the World Wide Web, being located in the United States is no longer necessary to participate in the global economy.

In the late 1990s corporations found that they could move production to lower cost economies. Corporations, colleges and immigration attorneys formed unions under the guise of “trade associations” and presented numerous defective economic studies on the benefit of lower cost goods and the virtue of immigrant entrepreneurs, guest workers and foreign exchange students.

Hungry politicians took the bait, hook line and sinker, and we are now faced with a too big to fail situation where our politicians are impotent. We are faced with a crap-sandwich, in the form of a Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill (S 744) that will add millions of employment seeking immigrants per year, while facts at hand are being ignored.

A simple aggregate of Bureau of Labor Statistic household data displays how the employment paradigm has changed since the turn of the century.
  •  Removing the population and employment growth for those 65 and over negates the Baby-Boomer retirement argument.
Employment to Population Growth (Ages 16 through 64)
Decade Population Growth Employment Growth Employment rate
1950s 7,559,000 7,117,000 94.15%
1960s 15,772,000 13,817,000 87.60%
1970s 25,569,000 21,291,000 83.27%
1980s 15,470,000 17,335,000 112.06%
1990s 18,591,000 16,366,000 88.03%
2000 – 2010 22,268,000 1,048,000 4.71%




Selected Period Population Growth Employment Growth Employment rate
2000 – Apr 2013 25,810,000 5,280,000 20.46%
2010 – Apr 2013 3,542,000 4,232,000 119.48%
 
For the first decade of the 2000s, there was only 1 new job created for every 20 working-age entrants into the workforce. In the decade following (2010 to present) employment growth slightly exceeds population growth, but that is largely because of a reduction in population growth.  If the 119.48% rate (2010 to present) continues for the rest of this decade without change, only 12,696,000 jobs will be created for the 2010s.  Roughly 40 million native born children enter the workforce in the decade, while the national mortality rate is about 15 million per decade.  Combining the two time periods, 2000 to present (April 2013), only 1 job has been created for every five new entrants into the workforce (noninstitutionalized population ages 16 through 64).

Effectively, we are experiencing an 79.5% unemployment rate for the population of new working-age adults added to the population since 2000.  Is this the time to blindly double the rate of legal immigration and surrender to illegal immigration without ever trying to enforce the rules of the 1986 IRCA amnesty which described the creation of E-Verify?


Source Data:


Data extracted on: May 12, 2013 (4:02:02 PM)
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Ages 16 and older:
Series Id:           LNU00000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Population Level
Labor force status:  Civilian noninstitutional population
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over 
Download:
Year

Series Id:           LNU02000000
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Ages 65 and older:
Series Id:           LNU00000097
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Population Level - 65 yrs. & over
Labor force status:  Civilian noninstitutional population
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 65 years and over
Download:
Year

Series Id:           LNU02000097
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - 65 yrs. & over
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 65 years and over
Download:
Year

















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