Disinformation (brought to you) By Code.org

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Disinformation IS Published by Code.org

For the latest in the computer worker shortage disinformation saga, we have a website called Code.org. While promoting importance of computer literacy is important, their claims about demand for those skills are not based in reality.

Two of the claims on their Promote Computer Science page are as follows:

• There are currently 521,444 open computing jobs nationwide.
• Last year, only 42,969 computer science students graduated into the workforce.

The problem with these statement are:

1. The "521,444 open computing jobs" are based upon 2024 projections. As of this writing, the current year is 2017.
2. The "computer science students graduated" is selection bias, for the occupation(s)

We can be assured that there are not "521,444 open computing jobs." (A) The Computer occupations have never experienced that much growth in one year and (B) the Department of Labor's, JOLTS database, publishes job opening statistics. From the January 2017 JOLTS report, there were 5,625,000 openings across all sectors, we subtract 5,424,000 million hires to arrive at 201,000 open positions. Thus, it is impossible to have 500,000 open "computing jobs." You can read about the JOLTS definition of Active recruiting here.

Code.org does have a document published that outlines how they arrived at these figures. That document confirms that they are using BLS 2014 to 2024 projections and also discloses the Occupational codes (SOC) they used (See Table 1).

In Table 1, I've combined their list with the BLS 2014 to 2024 projections data.

Table 1:

Computer Science codes:	(Projections 2014-2024)	Growth & Replacement	Growth (Employment Level)	Educational level
11-3021	Computer and Information Systems Managers	94,800	53,700	Bachelor's degree
17-2061	Computer Hardware Engineers	18,400	2,400	Bachelor's degree
25-1021	Computer science teachers, post-secondary	11,500	3,800	Doctoral or professional degree
15-1111	Computer and information research scientists	6,000	2,700	Doctoral or professional degree
15-1121	Computer systems analysts	191,600	118,600	Bachelor's degree
15-1122	Information security analysts	25,500	14,800	Bachelor's degree
15-1131	Computer programmers	81,000	-26,500	Bachelor's degree
15-1132	Software developers, applications	238,000	135,300	Bachelor's degree
15-1133	Software developers, systems software	107,900	51,300	Bachelor's degree
15-1134	Web developers	58,600	39,500	Associate's degree
15-1141	Database administrators	39,200	13,400	Bachelor's degree
15-1142	Network and computer systems administrators	79,400	30,200	Bachelor's degree
15-1143	Computer network architects	31,500	12,700	Bachelor's degree
15-1151	Computer user support specialists	150,500	75,100	Some college, no degree
15-1152	Computer network support specialists	36,900	13,600	Associate's degree
15-1199	Computer occupations, all other	37,700	7,700	Bachelor's degree
	Totals	1,208,500	548,300

So far, so good, we have the 548,300 in employment level growth that Code.org has referenced in their published document. Apparently, the BLS feels that 660,200 (15%) will leave the occupations by 2024.

Math & Computer Science factoid: 

Of those with bachelors degrees or higher  (2,647,000 of 3,578,220) in 2012-13 data...	Employed	% of Occupation
At least one S&E degree = 73.3%	1,940,251	54.2%
No S&E degrees but at least one S&E-related degree = 4.3%	113,821	3.2%
No S&E or S&E-related degree but at least one non-S&E degree = 22.5%	595,575	16.6%
Subtotal (slightly off due to rounding?)	2,649,647	74.0%
No Bachelors degree	928,573	26.0%

National Science Foundation, National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT) (2013), http://sestat.nsf.gov.

Source data: https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_107.htm  and https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm

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When we reference the WebCaspar database for Computer Science, in the method prescribed by Code.org, we find 60,266 bachelors degree conferred in 2015, this is quite a bit higher than 42,969 as stated by Code.org. In fact, the 42,969 number does not exist in the current output.

Computer Science is not the only curriculum for the "computing jobs" designated by Code.org. In fact, we can use the "SOC 2010 to CIP 2010 Crosswalk" to determine the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) codes for the Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC) codes in Table 2.

Table 2

SOC to CIP Crosswalk: for Code.org referenced computer occupations
01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0102 Artificial Intelligence
11.0103 Information Technology
11.0104 Informatics
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General
11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration
11.0804 Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.1001 Network and System Administration/Administrator
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security/Information Assurance
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster
11.1005 Information Technology Project Management
11.1006 Computer Support Specialist
13.1321 Computer Teacher Education
14.0901 Computer Engineering, General
14.0903 Computer Software Engineering
14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other
15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician
26.1103 Bioinformatics
26.1104 Computational Biology
30.0801 Mathematics and Computer Science
30.1601 Accounting and Computer Science
30.3001 Computational Science
30.3101 Human Computer Interaction
43.0116 Cyber/Computer Forensics and Counterterrorism
51.0709 Medical Office Computer Specialist/Assistant
51.2706 Medical Informatics
52.1201 Management Information Systems, General

When we compare the last ten years of educational data (for permanent residents and citizens), these awards (1,235,998) are congruent with the BLS Projections (1,208,500).

Computing jobs: Degrees & Certificates conferred US Citizens and Permanent Residents (2006-15)

• Doctorate – Professional = 9,899
• Masters = 166,437
• Bachelors = 544,578
• Associate = 323,393
• Post-grad Certificates = 11,012
• 1 but less than 4 year Certificates = 62,541
• Less than 1 year Certificates = 118,138
• 
  
• Total 2006-2015 = 1,235,998

Of course, the NCES colleges also educate foreign students, the capacity to exceed projections does exist and the United States grants 1.2 million employment based green-cards per decade.

Computing jobs: Degrees & Certificates conferred Temporary Residents (2006-15)

• Doctorate – Professional = 11,805
• Masters = 113,545
• Bachelors = 41,312
• Associate = 4,862
• Post-grad Certificates = 2,076
• 1 but less than 4 year Certificates = 974
• Less than 1 year Certificates = 1,679
• 
  
• Total 2006-2015 = 176,253

Given the fact the NCES colleges have increased degree production by 20% of the 2006-2015 sample, it is safe to assume that there is an adequate supply of U.S. trained computer professionals.