59% Want Legal Immigration Cut in Half

Railroaded Immigration Increases Likely, But No Wage Hike

by weaver

“The reason that Americans are not getting a raise right now is because there are 20 million Americans unemployed”
--Heritage Foundation Economist, Stephen Moore. 

 

First, let’s take a look at how much value the minimum wage has lost over the years.  In 1964, the minimum wage was $1.25 per hour, at that time you could choose to take your hour’s pay in silver Quarters (1964 was the last year of silver coinage).    As of this writing, coinflation.com place the melt-value of a 1964 Washington Quarter at $3.95.  So the commensurate minimum wage today would be  $19.75 per hour, or five silver Quarters.  What the policy wonks are telling us is, that we cannot afford to bring your wages up to 51% of 1964 levels ($10.10)  and we need to increase labor competition through increased immigration.

In January, Jennifer Moore, a former Hollywood labor attorney turned Washington Post blogger, vouches for Stephen Moore’s credentials as a fellow pro-Immigration Reform wonk.  But what I really interesting today is a 1997 article co-written by, Moore, and former Cato Institute immigration propagandist, Stuart Anderson, “Cutting Immigration Myths Down to Size”. 

The final myth: Immigration must be reduced because Americans say so in polls. When polled within the appropriate context, Americans favor immigration.

Bringing your attention to, “When polled within the appropriate context,…”  is what these highly paid knuckleheads have been doing for the past seventeen years, designing poll questions that will not allow the majority of respondents to honestly answer due to an incomplete array of possible answers, and/or the question itself is not representative of the findings they will spin in the media. 

Fortunately, NumbersUSA conducted a recent poll that was examined by the Washington Times, which allowed the 1000 likely voting respondents a complete access to a complete array of possible answers.

Americans want legal immigration cut in half: poll

By Stephen Dinan The Washington Times Friday, February 21, 2014

You won’t find a link to the NumbersUSA poll but it is published here: https://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/FEB2014_NationalPoll_0.pdf 

NumbersUSA didn’t have to create questions “within the appropriate context,”  straightforward questions and wide array of answers, I’ll leave you with a few findings.

• 59% want Legal Immigration reduced to 1/2 of current levels, 43% want Legal Immigration reduced to 1/10th of current levels. Only 11% are in favor of an immigration increase.

e* Currently the government allows one million legal immigrants each year. How many
legal immigrants should the government allow each year -- two million, one million, a
half-million, 100,000, or zero?

11% Two million
16% One million
16% Half a million
17% 100,000
26% Zero
14% Not sure

GROUPINGS
27% One million or more (keep same or increase)
59% Half-million or less (reduce by at least half)
43% Zero or 100,000

• On the question of controlling access to employment, social benefits and self deportation…

m* Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose proposals to encourage most illegal immigrants to go back home on their own by keeping them from getting jobs and public benefits here?

41% Strongly support
22% Somewhat support
14% Somewhat oppose
14% Strongly oppose
9% Not sure

GROUPINGS:
63% Strongly or Somewhat SUPPORT
28% Strongly or Somewhat OPPOSE

• Dream Act

h* Concerning young adult illegal immigrants who came to the U.S. as children -- are
you very sympathetic, somewhat sympathetic, not very sympathetic or not at all
sympathetic to their request for lifetime work permits and legal status?

28% Very sympathetic
35% Somewhat sympathetic
20% Not very sympathetic
14% Not at all sympathetic
3% Not sure

GROUPING
63% Very or Somewhat Sympathetic
34% Not At All or Not Very Sympathetic

• Visa OverStay

i* Concerning adult foreign citizens who came here on vacation, as students or temporary
workers and then overstayed their visas -- are you very sympathetic, somewhat
sympathetic, not very sympathetic or not at all sympathetic to their request for lifetime
work permits and legal status?

6% Very sympathetic
21% Somewhat sympathetic
32% Not very sympathetic
38% Not at all sympathetic
3% Not sure

GROUPING
27% Very or Somewhat Sympathetic
70% Not At All or Not Very Sympathetic

In closing, I suggest that the American voters insist that any adjustment for those who are out of status (illegal), decrement the count of future available (legal) visas on a one to one basis.  Under a program where we sort out the mess first, before taking in new immigrants that will immediately need employment and housing. I contend we will get wages and spending up during a immigration moratorium and then re-examine job creation data to determine realistic legal immigration levels.

Reducing the Potential for H-1B Abuse

In any type of war, it’s very important to identify the enemy and their supporters.  The enemy of American IT professionals are foreign labor speculators and foreign Business Process Offshoring specialists.  We can identify both of these enemies in an NAICS Industry classification that contains both of these types of employers

In the war against global labor arbitrage, we have multi-fronts, one is comprised of foreign employers who have broken through our borders and are granted temporary work visas to facilitate offshore outsourcing. A second front is a beachhead comprised of semi-domestic labor brokers, concentrated in the skilled labor occupations, who provide the logistical supply-line for the enemy.

I may have found a useful tool for identifying these enemies of American prosperity; employers in an industry defined as NAICS 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. Though not all are enemies, some employers concentrated in NAICS 54 have focused on destroying our domestic Information Technology capabilities (Computer-related occupations) for personal gain. In the future, any specialty occupation can and will be targeted in the arbitrage scheme.

According to the IRS, all U. S. employers must obtain an Employer Identification Number (EIN). Associated with the EIN is an NAICS Industry classification, the Industry classification prefix number 54 could be used to automate protections for the American worker by removing carte-blanche business immigration privileges from NAICS 54 employers. Currently, only H-1B Dependent employers and Willful violators are required to conduct labor market tests and advertise open positions to domestic candidates. If an H-1B worker will earn more than $60,000.00 per year, even these modest requirements are lifted.

H1B Dependent Employers


Before making an H1B application, an H1B dependent employer must make "good faith" attempts to recruit resident US workers using "procedures that meet industry-wide standards" and "offering compensation at least as great as that offered to the H1B alien". Given the wide variety of recruitment methods used in different industries, this provision is likely to cause some confusion both for the BCIS and employers. For example, Internet advertising might be in "good faith" and "meet industry-wide standards" for the IT sector, but would it for, say, the engineering industry? This is a matter that will demand careful consideration on the part of H1B dependent employers.


It is worth noting, however, that the recruitment attestation described above is not required by H1B dependent employers seeking to employ aliens with Master's (or higher) Degrees, or those earning in excess of US$60,000. Non H1B dependent employers are not required to make such an attestation in any event.


Source: Workpermit.com

Perversely, NAICS 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services is an industry that exists to earn a margin on value created by the accomplishment of others. In addition to classifying Offshore Outsourcing specialists, NAICS 54 also contains human resources and domestic consulting firms. Mismanagement and dwindling-receipts for these firms increase the temptation to charge foreign-workers large performance bonds, require personal service agreements (enforced in distant jurisdictions), and encourage fabrication of the foreign-worker’s credentials.

In this hyper-competitive business atmosphere, NAICS 54 employers are dependent upon margins from decreasing wages and foreign incursion into domestic service markets. Without intervention, these employers will destroy themselves and thwart innovation as maturity and employment-security within the industry are further discarded.

The professional sports industry is much like NAICS 54, in that the owners earn margins derived from the player’s skills. In sports, we have rules and referees, many of these rules are enforced so that players do not injure others, but also so they do not injure themselves. Without rules and referees, parents would not allow their children to play and the sport would suffer with substandard recruits. In soccer, we have the “yellow-card,” a warning, followed by the “red-card” which means ejection from the game in all languages.

It is my contention that NAICS “54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services” and all sub-classified employers should be considered “H-1B Dependent” regardless of number of employees -- a default “yellow-card” is issued so to speak.

If the “yellow-card” and “red-card” have no meaning, then the respect for the referee is diminished and violence in the game has no consequence. When the referees have been removed, the business of business is no longer a competitive game and civility is set aside, opponents and competitors become enemies and the game becomes war.

Crossposted to NoSlaves.com

How to lie to Congress without really lying

Remember when Bill Clinton said, "I did not have sex with that woman" Bill was not lying because the definition of "sex" did not include oral sex. Bill Gates recently testified before congress, "Given the state of our educational system, it is not surprising that U.S. companies are reporting serious shortages of skilled workers." (PDF) Similar to former President Clinton's definition of "sex," the term "labor shortage" has multiple definitions.

Wouldn't it be refreshing, if Bill Gates could come right out and say that he is not interested in hiring aging technical professionals and state his reasons why? If age, and the inability to unlearn the technologies preclude Americans from the job market -- shouldn't we be able to have an honest dialog about it?



Cool little video -- good music:

Skilled worker shortage by the numbers:

Senator John McCain's letter of June 21, 2001, states: "…the Information Technology Association of America estimated that there were more than 346,000 unfilled positions for highly skilled workers in American companies." We can assume that these "unfilled" positions have been filled. The H-1B fiscal per year limit was not attained in 2002 and 2003 -- Over 180,000 H-1B visas went unused in 2002 and 2003 collectively.

Further, McCain's letter quotes a Bureau of Labor projection stating: "…the American economy would generate 1.3 million new jobs each year for a decade in the computer and information-technology industries, but that American universities would be able to supply only a quarter of the graduates needed to fill those jobs." Checking the Labor statistics, these 13 million high-tech jobs did not materialize. (McCain letter at zazona)

The AeA Cyberstates report places U.S. high-tech employment at 5.8 million in 2006, this is up from the up from 5.5 million in 2000. The AeA definition of "high-tech employment" is very broad and more than adequately covers a definition of "computer and information-technology industries."

According to National Science Foundation averages, 271,936 citizens and permanent residents earn Bachelors degrees in Computer Science every six years. Excluding Associate Degrees in Computer Science, there was a labor shortage of roughly 18,000 high-tech workers between 2000 and 2006. The Bureau of Labor projections missed the mark by almost 100%.

Common sense would dictate that a shortfall of 3000 high-tech workers per year does not justify importing 939,770 (L-1 & H-1B) guest workers for the years 2002 - 2006, according to the Department of Travel. In computer related occupations, the OIG reports that 90% of L-1 and 43% of H-1B visas are computer related. Using these averages computer-related absorbed 552,497 guest workers for the 2002-2006 period, the employment shortfall is over 500,000 jobs.


There is also evidence that wages are going down.

Effective January 1, 2008, the minimum [California] hourly rate
for exempt computer software professionals will be $36, down from this
year's minimum of $49.77. On an annualized basis (based on a 40-hour workweek), the new minimum salary will be $74,880 (down from $103,521.60). (HTML)

Note: this is the wage that California requires employers to pay exempt software professionals -- the 80 hour work week is not uncommon and the high rate discourages employers from avoiding overtime pay through exempt-salary compensation.

Variations in measuring Labor Shortages:

As is pointed out in the 1998 study, Skill Mismatches and Worker Shortages: The Problem and Appropriate Responses, there are at least five different definitions of the term "Labor Shortage." Depending upon the model of Labor Shortage you desire -- simply pick the definition that fits your desired conclusion.

The Social Demand Model
The Blank-Stigler Model
The Arrow-Capron Dynamic Shortage Model
The "rate of return model"
The monopsonistic labor market model

Myself and other non-economists, including Congressmen, would probably assume the term "Labor Shortage" in the context of the Blank Stigler model.

One of the first major studies of occupational shortages was conducted by David S. Blank and George J. Stigler.11 Blank and Stigler define a shortage as follows: "a shortage exists when the number of workers available (the supply) increases less rapidly than the number demanded at the salaries paid in the recent past."

There are several problems with the Blank-Stigler model. First, as discussed below, an increase in demand is only one of the possible causes of a shortage. Thus, the Blank-Stigler model ignores other possible causes of occupational shortages. Second, Blank and Stigler indicate that a shortage can be identified by rising wages in the affected occupation. Wages may not rise, however, because of market imperfections such as controls on wages or imperfect information.

Controls on wages? Prevailing wage is a form of control on wages. Imperfect information? The Department of Labor missed their projections by almost 100%

A modified version of the Social Demand Model is the apparent definition that is expounded in the mainstream media.

This type of definition does not imply that the labor market is in disequilibrium; instead it describes a situation where the person who claims there is a shortage does not like the market's results. Arrow and Capron explain the problem with this definition as follows:

In particular, careful reading of such statements indicates that the speakers have in effect been saying: There are not as many engineers and scientists as this nation should have in order to do all the things that need doing such as maintaining our rapid rate of technological progress, raising our standard of living, keeping us militarily strong, etc. In other words, they are saying that (in the economic sense) demand for technically skilled manpower ought to be greater than it is -- it is really a shortage of demand for scientists and engineers that concerns them.

With the Social Demand Model definition, Bill Gates can, without lying to Congress, testify that there is a labor shortage. The underlying competitiveness message is not the shortage of qualified workers, it is the fact that competitors are not bound by age-discrimination statutes.

The key determinant of whether there can be shortages for some parts of an
occupation is whether all workers within the occupation are reasonable substitutes for each other. If not, a shortage can exist within an occupation while other subcategories are in equilibrium or even in surplus.

...a shortage may exist for the entire occupation or only for workers with selected
characteristics. For example, training for engineers has changed considerably
over the past 20 years, and older electrical engineers may not be good substitutes for new engineers who have more training in designing integrated circuits.

Let's suppose for a moment, the following:
Human Resources departments directed to seek out new graduates
Placement Agencies are prolonging commissions by placing guest-workers
H-1b Immigration Attorneys have developed a 200 million yr revenue source on initial visas.

In effect, we have created a personnel machine that shortens careers, this behavior will devalue the investment in the particular occupation -- through premature retirement/displacement.

The "rate of return model" is based on the application of internal rate of return analysis to alternative occupations. The costs of investing in a particular occupation are defined as the sum of the direct costs for higher education, training, and supplies, plus the indirect costs of foregone wages that are incurred during periods of training.

Harrington and Sum note that the rate of return approach is "beset with numerous methodological and measurement difficulties." One important problem is that we cannot observe the future earnings streams from various occupations.

This is where a disconnect in communications is occurring due to political correctness. The "Industry" is telling us that the optimal candidate is young, with a recent education, willing to relocate and pay regular attorney fees. The "Industry" is also telling us that they do not have career path for older workers being displaced by global access to the domestic employment pool.

Severity of the shortage. Unlike the two dimensions discussed above, it is not easy to develop good measures of the severity of a shortage. Conceptually, we can measure the severity of a shortage in terms of the magnitude of the changes in wages required to restore equilibrium or in terms of the number of workers added to the occupation to alleviate the shortage. There are several difficulties with these concepts. First, we do not generally observe the supply and demand curves for specific occupations. Thus, we cannot directly estimate the size of the labor or age gap of a shortage. Second, even if we could measure supply and demand, it would not be easy to classify a particular gap as large or small, especially when comparing across occupations -- occupations vary significantly in their normal vacancy rates and wage dispersion. Thus, a high vacancy rate for one occupation with a shortage may be characteristic of another occupation in equilibrium.

Labor shortage? Or are we witnessing an extremely dynamic occupation that is in a state of equilibrium? The perceived labor shortages have now existed for over twenty years. Are misidentified labor shortages simply characteristics of the high-tech occupations in equilibrium?

Political correctness eliminates the ability to candidly discuss age-discrimination and the hiring policies of Business Process Offshoring specialists also seems to be off-limits. President Bush tells us that the aging tech-worker problem can be resolved by sending the best educated workers in the world to community college. Perhaps there is a better idea.

Employment for Displaced Engineers and Computer Scientists:

From Senator Grassley's list of, "Top 20 H-1B Employers 2006," Business Process Outsourcing Specialists used 35,365 out of 48,159 (73.43%) of the L-1 and H-1B visas on the list.

Offshoring is a fact of life, however qualified Americans are being excluded from the domestic workforce by "rubber-stamp" processing of L-1 and H-1B visas to foreign interests. I contend that companies such as Intel and Microsoft, American producers of tangible goods, should be preferred customers of USCIS, while foreign based Business Process Outsourcing firms should have an extremely hard time procuring long term visas.

Department of Travel data shows a total of 315,737 L-1 Intracompany visas issued 2002 - 2006. The L-1A visa matures at 7 years, and the L-1B at 5 years.

Wage and Social Protections:

The intent of the 65,000 visa GATS agreement does not include the "brain-drain" of dual-intent citizenship provisions. Additionally, under the GATS agreement, H-1B visas are not required to be six year visas.

The H-1B guest worker should be encouraged to complete his/her assignment and return home, or concurrently enroll in post-graduate studies to qualify for an Employment Based green card visa. Moreover, a labor shortage should not exceed the first 3 year term of the H-1B visa. H-1B visas should be progressively more expensive and difficult to renew.

By restricting the foreign based offshoring firms ability to apply for guest worker visas, American companies will enjoy the benefit of the entire 65,000 H-1B visa allotment. The number of visas is determined by law, but the value of the visa should be determined by the free-market system through competitive bid. H-1B approvals and prevailing wage requirements should be determined by salary offers -- in round-robin competitive bid -- within NAICS occupational groups.

The L-1 visa should be eliminated in favor of the short term B visa -- the requirement of maintaing a foreign residence and per diem costs will alleviate labor arbitrage conditions.

The employee portion of Social Security contributions should be refunded at departure to H guest workers from non-totalized nations.

The Employment based (EB) family and spouse visa counts could be moved to count against family based immigration caps. EB green card visas could then made directly available to postgraduates of American colleges interested in citizenship -- Immigration policy should not subsidize foreign colleges.

Closing thought:

Generally, the guest worker loses the ability to vote and attain property equity. Moreover, the exodus of workers causes the destruction of property equity, while the importation of workers causes hyper-inflation. The current sub-prime mortgage crisis is the result of hyper-inflation due to excessive immigrant housing demand and dwindling employment opportunities in the U.S.

The "free movement of human capital" seems to cause instability in equity markets. I think mabye they shouldn't fool around with that.

Myth: Labor Shortage in Computer and Math

Misinformed, or simply telling lies? Bill Gates and others are selling fairy-tales.

Google Video: Bill Gates before the U.S. Senate
Youtube Video: Robert Hoffman Oracle/CompeteAmerica debates Ron Hira on CNBC

2005 and 2006 H-1B and Educational data is not yet available for Computer and Mathematical Occupations, yet growth in the labor force, up-to 2004, still far exceeds employment growth totals to May 2006.

Note: Computer and Mathematical occupations shed 160,190 existing jobs between 2000 and 2002. During this employment contraction, 165,229 computer-related H-1Bs were approved for initial employment. 2000 -- 2002 domestic job losses (160,190) and job losses due to H-1B replacement/displacement workers (165,229) caused reserves in the labor force of 325,419 Computer and Mathematical professionals.

The graph below shows additions to the labor force (permanent resident Math and Computer Science BS degrees awarded plus H-1B initial employment approvals) compared to employment growth since 1999. (click image to enlarge)

Note: Over 97% of all H-1B initial employment approvals are also approved for continuing employment and a recent Duke University study indicates that some 500,000 of these workers are seeking permanent resident status. Statistically, the unpublished numbers of departing H-1B workers are insignificant.

In the graph below, I've removed the H-1B data to determine if the domestic educational system would have serviced workforce requirements of Math and Computer Science employment.

Below, we can again note the workforce reserve of 160,190 idle Math and Computer Science workers displaced in the 2000-2002 employment contraction. Furthermore, the educational data does not include, B.S. degrees awarded to foreign students enrolled in American colleges, postgraduate degrees, A.S. degrees, nor vendor certifications. (click image to enlarge)

As of 2002, the domestic educational system has clearly resumed servicing the industry's Math & Computer Science employment needs.

The high employment levels in 2000, were most likely the result of the Y2K buildup, 2001 employment levels were still a bit high due to the Dot-Com bubble. Also, in 2002, Microsoft's first stable, IP based - LDAP enabled, operating systems were becoming fully implemented. (Windows 9x burned gazillions of administration hours.)

The 325,419 professionals displaced in 2001-2002 are simply out of luck, if the H-1B program continues, students studying Math and Computer Science will find that careers in these occupation(s) are temporary, future generations will refuse to study these disciplines without better employment prospects.

In the unlikely event that substantial domestic job growth is experienced, in Math and CompSci. we have 1999 as an example.

Somehow, Mathematics and Computer Science occupations grew 11.93% in 2000 (312,730 jobs) while the NSF 1999 Employment Characteristics survey reported unemployment at 1.2% for all degree levels.

Unemployment statistics represent only individuals who have been recently employed or are seeking employment in an occupation, unemployment statistics do not represent every person with education, training or expertise in an occupation.

Citing unemployment statistics as a reason to dilute the domestic labor force is dishonest.

Avg. Math and CS job growth 2000 -- 2006 = 65,160

Avg. Math and CS unemployment 2000 -- 2005 = 128,167

Employment Data:
BLS - OES 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical employment levels

1999 Unemployment survey:

National Science Foundation/Science Resources Statistics Division,
1999 SESTAT (Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/us-workforce/1999/tables/TableB5.pdf

2000 -- 2005 Unemployment data:
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/07s0612.xls

Educational Data:
NSF Educational Statistics http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/wmpd/tables/tabc-6.xls

H-1B Data:
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/H1B_FY05_Characteristics.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/FY2001Charact.pdf