Immigration Moratorium: Chapter 2

  Immigration Moratorium

Chapter 2: Expected Useful Lifetime of STEM Degree

 

1 million new STEM jobs projected by 2022, 5.9 million new American graduates will apply for them.

by Steve Kritzer on
November 24, 2015; Updated November 24, 2015

Subjects: Immigration moratorium, STEM, Employment, Education, temporary visa

Source data by NSF/NCES

In the previous post, we found that domestic (citizen and permanent resident) bachelor's degree production is more than adequately meeting employment growth published by the BLS. Even with an additional 22 months (2014-Oct. 2015) of employment growth beyond the college degree data period (2000-13), there would still be 6.42% slack (not employed) in the college educated population.

For this post we are looking at STEM degree production, on the domestic side (citizens and permanent residents), for the fourteen years of data  we have 4,945,112 STEM bachelor's and 3,311,070 associate's degrees conferred, for a total of 8,256,182.  Without factoring in any immigration and considering the STEM sector employment level for 2014 below, domestic degree production can replace the entire STEM employment market in a little over 15 years. Most of these graduates need 40 years of employment to reach their retirement age.

There were over 8.3 million STEM jobs in May 2014, representing about 6.2 percent of total U.S. employment. Seven of the 10 largest STEM occupations were related to computers. These occupations included applications software developers, with employment of 686,470; computer user support specialists (563,540); and computer systems analysts (528,320). Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives of technical and scientific products (335,540) was the largest STEM occupation that was not specifically computer related. Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ocwage.pdf

The BLS 2014 projection for STEM employment is that STEM employment "...is projected to grow to more than 9 million between 2012 and 2022. That’s an increase of about 1 million jobs over 2012 employment levels." [PDF]  However, from averages taken from the table below,  the STEM bachelor's degrees will be conferred will be 3.53 million and the associate’s degrees will be another 2.37 million over ten years.  Basically, there are 5.9 million (citizen and permanent resident) students in the pipeline for an employment growth projection of 1 million jobs.

The following educational sectors are adhock and do not represent the exact degrees in the paragraph above, but with the disparity in numbers, all we need is common horse-sense to support an immigration moratorium.

Citizenship (standardized): U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents 2000-2013	Bachelor's	Associate's
01 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences	206,762	69,513
02 Agricultural Sciences	901	163
04 Architecture and Related Services	125,605	7,057
10 Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services	46,313	52,801
11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services	612,641	474,940
14 Engineering	902,298	32,648
15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields	207,083	499,185
25 Library Science	1,202	1,681
26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences	1,042,147	31,070
27 Mathematics and Statistics	5,496	25,738
29 Military Technologies and Applied Science	688	7,455
40 Physical Sciences	287,555	28,020
41 Science Technologies/Technicians	4,391	19,979
41 Science Technologies/Technicians	4,391	19,979
48 Precision Production	583	34,736
51 Health Professions and Related Programs	1,497,056	2,006,105
Subtotals	4,945,112	3,311,070

The following table displays the (2000-13) degrees conferred to temporary resident (foreign students). Attempting to grant work authorization to just U.S. educated foreign workers will add 556,490 job seekers to the STEM workforce, bringing the competition to 6.5 candidates for each projected job. Additionally, under President Obama's planned OPT extension, foreign STEM students will receive up to a three year Social Security and Medicare contribution exemption, combining the employee and employer share this is a discount of 12.4% on Social Security and another 2.9% on Medicare combined contributions. 

Citizenship (standardized): Temporary Residents 2000-2013	Doctorate	Master's	Bachelor's	Associate's
01 Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences	3703	6961	3,028	513
02 Agricultural Sciences	31	42	16	2
04 Architecture and Related Services	714	15673	6,789	267
10 Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services	15	2093	1,407	1,199
11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services	5676	112524	41,916	9,192
14 Engineering	34598	193060	67,107	1,696
15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields	267	11736	6,411	4,993
25 Library Science	150	1941	7	7
26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences	14513	19830	29,255	888
27 Mathematics and Statistics	5496	25738	11,855	725
29 Military Technologies and Applied Science	0	2	5	0
40 Physical Sciences	16543	23011	11,490	1,915
41 Science Technologies/Technicians	3	69	177	356
48 Precision Production	0	12	33	88
51 Health Professions and Related Programs	5565	38369	22,109	17,303
Subtotals	87,274	451,061	201,605	39,144
Totals	779,084	5.02%	(Associate's)

Source data: https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/

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Immigration Moratorium; Chapter 1

Immigration Moratorium

  Chapter 1: College Outcomes vs. Employment Growth

by Steve Kritzer November 20th 2015
Updated November 21st 2015

Subjects: Immigration moratorium, employment, college outcome, unemployment, H-1B,Green Card

The high-skill immigration debate is turning toward stapling a Green Card to U.S. conferred degrees. (The globalists call them advanced degrees without any further specificity, so we'll assume bachelors degrees and above in this exercise.)

Instead of writing about H-1B, this exercise coaxes college outcome data out of BLS Employment growth statistics verses Permanent Resident and Citizen bachelor's degrees conferred (U.S.) to find a "Not Employed" rate.  

The following section in the table displays the bachelors degrees and above and how that  "Not Employed" rate is changed as we accept more (U.S. college educated) Temporary Residents (non-citizens).

Retirement for those 65 and older are subtracted from the U.S. degrees conferred yearly at the rate of their presence in the population for the subject year. (A generous deduction since this percentage grows yearly and those degrees were conferred 40 years ago).

Finally, the original Employment Growth data does not match the available educational data, I adjusted that "Not Employed" rate in the final section of the table.  (I'm not calling it an unemployment rate because it would not be technically accurate.)

Bachelors Degree Employment Outcomes Since 2000
Citizen and PermRes Bachelors Degrees Conferred (2000-13)	20,720,142
Retirement (aging out) Bachelors Since December 1999	-3,420,761
Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth	17,299,381
BLS Employment Growth Bachelors (Dec. 1999 - Oct. 2015)	16,189,000
Bachelors Degree Not Employed	1,110,381
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent - U.S. only)	6.42%
Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)
Bachelors	661,474
Masters	1,044,480
Doctorate	126,813
Not Employed Percent with TempRes Degrees Added
Bachelors	10.24%
Masters	12.46%
Doctorate	7.15%
Total Not Employed Bachelors (w Res and Non res.)	17.01%
Rollback Employment to 2013 Levels (to match EDU data)	13,876,381
Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth (U.S. Citizen and PermRes.)	16,189,000
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (U.S.)	2,312,619
Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)	1,832,767
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent)	27.99%

Notes:  The number of Doctorate degrees conferred to Temporary Residents is miniscule over the 14 year period, 100% of the bachelors degrees are unnecessary as is some portion of the masters degrees.  The yearly average is 130,912.

Not all foreign students foreign student will be interested in staying, the current employment-based Green Card caps of 140,000 is adequate.  All temporary immigrant programs are likely unneeded.

* I noticed that when I rolled back the "Not Employed" to EOY 2013 levels, I did not subtract the 853,000 degree holders who had not yet retired.

Educational Data Source: https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/ 
Employment and Population Data Unadj. (Current Population Survey - CPS) Source: http://www.bls.gov/data/

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59% Want Legal Immigration Cut in Half

Railroaded Immigration Increases Likely, But No Wage Hike

by weaver

“The reason that Americans are not getting a raise right now is because there are 20 million Americans unemployed”
--Heritage Foundation Economist, Stephen Moore. 

 

First, let’s take a look at how much value the minimum wage has lost over the years.  In 1964, the minimum wage was $1.25 per hour, at that time you could choose to take your hour’s pay in silver Quarters (1964 was the last year of silver coinage).    As of this writing, coinflation.com place the melt-value of a 1964 Washington Quarter at $3.95.  So the commensurate minimum wage today would be  $19.75 per hour, or five silver Quarters.  What the policy wonks are telling us is, that we cannot afford to bring your wages up to 51% of 1964 levels ($10.10)  and we need to increase labor competition through increased immigration.

In January, Jennifer Moore, a former Hollywood labor attorney turned Washington Post blogger, vouches for Stephen Moore’s credentials as a fellow pro-Immigration Reform wonk.  But what I really interesting today is a 1997 article co-written by, Moore, and former Cato Institute immigration propagandist, Stuart Anderson, “Cutting Immigration Myths Down to Size”. 

The final myth: Immigration must be reduced because Americans say so in polls. When polled within the appropriate context, Americans favor immigration.

Bringing your attention to, “When polled within the appropriate context,…”  is what these highly paid knuckleheads have been doing for the past seventeen years, designing poll questions that will not allow the majority of respondents to honestly answer due to an incomplete array of possible answers, and/or the question itself is not representative of the findings they will spin in the media. 

Fortunately, NumbersUSA conducted a recent poll that was examined by the Washington Times, which allowed the 1000 likely voting respondents a complete access to a complete array of possible answers.

Americans want legal immigration cut in half: poll

By Stephen Dinan The Washington Times Friday, February 21, 2014

You won’t find a link to the NumbersUSA poll but it is published here: https://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/FEB2014_NationalPoll_0.pdf 

NumbersUSA didn’t have to create questions “within the appropriate context,”  straightforward questions and wide array of answers, I’ll leave you with a few findings.

• 59% want Legal Immigration reduced to 1/2 of current levels, 43% want Legal Immigration reduced to 1/10th of current levels. Only 11% are in favor of an immigration increase.

e* Currently the government allows one million legal immigrants each year. How many
legal immigrants should the government allow each year -- two million, one million, a
half-million, 100,000, or zero?

11% Two million
16% One million
16% Half a million
17% 100,000
26% Zero
14% Not sure

GROUPINGS
27% One million or more (keep same or increase)
59% Half-million or less (reduce by at least half)
43% Zero or 100,000

• On the question of controlling access to employment, social benefits and self deportation…

m* Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose proposals to encourage most illegal immigrants to go back home on their own by keeping them from getting jobs and public benefits here?

41% Strongly support
22% Somewhat support
14% Somewhat oppose
14% Strongly oppose
9% Not sure

GROUPINGS:
63% Strongly or Somewhat SUPPORT
28% Strongly or Somewhat OPPOSE

• Dream Act

h* Concerning young adult illegal immigrants who came to the U.S. as children -- are
you very sympathetic, somewhat sympathetic, not very sympathetic or not at all
sympathetic to their request for lifetime work permits and legal status?

28% Very sympathetic
35% Somewhat sympathetic
20% Not very sympathetic
14% Not at all sympathetic
3% Not sure

GROUPING
63% Very or Somewhat Sympathetic
34% Not At All or Not Very Sympathetic

• Visa OverStay

i* Concerning adult foreign citizens who came here on vacation, as students or temporary
workers and then overstayed their visas -- are you very sympathetic, somewhat
sympathetic, not very sympathetic or not at all sympathetic to their request for lifetime
work permits and legal status?

6% Very sympathetic
21% Somewhat sympathetic
32% Not very sympathetic
38% Not at all sympathetic
3% Not sure

GROUPING
27% Very or Somewhat Sympathetic
70% Not At All or Not Very Sympathetic

In closing, I suggest that the American voters insist that any adjustment for those who are out of status (illegal), decrement the count of future available (legal) visas on a one to one basis.  Under a program where we sort out the mess first, before taking in new immigrants that will immediately need employment and housing. I contend we will get wages and spending up during a immigration moratorium and then re-examine job creation data to determine realistic legal immigration levels.

Computer Occupations & H-1B Report 2012

135,966 H-1B initial employment approvals in FY 2012

• In 2012, the H-1B cap of 85,000 was exceeded by 53,446. 
• 83,444(61.4%) of 135,966 initial employment approvals, in known occupations, went to Computer-related occupations
• Another 924 employment approvals went to Occupations unknown for a total of  136,890 employment approvals. 

Findings:

At the core of the temporary immigration problem is the static USCIS definition of the Specialty Occupation.  With a static definition of occupations that are open to temporary immigration, we can be assured that work authorizations will be wasted in occupations where they are unneeded, while industries having a genuine need will clamor for higher immigration rates .  Moreover, the temporary immigration programs are completely insensitive to occupational unemployment rates and current degree production.  Adding workforce capacity to occupations where employment levels are declining is –- flat stupid. 
USCIS still reports to Congress using the out of print Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT), there is no way to crosswalk DOT occupational titles to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) titles because many titles did not exist at the DOT last printing in 1991. The Bureau of Labor Statistics abandoned the DOT in 1998.

The US now has the capability to determine if individual occupational levels are growing,  if growth in an occupation is stagnant or declining it would be a very trivial process to ‘close’ the occupation to temporary immigration, thus freeing up visas for occupations that are experiencing growth. 

The one year (occupation specific) temporary immigration hiatus would reduce unemployment costs, student loan defaults and home loan foreclosures because it would provide a one year period where employers would be motivated to hire from the unemployment roles if they wish to participate in the early stages of recovery from economic recession(s).

Census: Three New Immigrants for Every New Job

For the decade, 6.9 million immigrants found employment while only 2 million jobs were created. There isn't really much to say except that people who are advocating more immigration must also be barking mad. 

Taken from Census CPS and BLS CPS data.

Occupation		Newly Employed Immigrants -- Percent of Emp. Level Gain	Employment Level Loss/Gain
		Arrived 2000 or later(2)	(Avg. yr. 2010 - 2000)
.Management, professional, and related occupations	Major	1,629,000  (30%)	5,442,000
..Management, business, and financial		494,000	1,347,000
..Professional and related		1,135,000	4,095,000
.Service occupations	Major	2,106,000  (55%)	3,857,000
.Sales and office occupations	Major	985,000  (100%)+	(2,736,000)
..Sales and related		600,000	(335,000)
..Office and administrative		385,000	(2,401,000)
.Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations	Major	149,000  (100%)+	(181,000)
.Construction, extraction, and maintenance occupations	Major	977,000  (100%)+	(534,000)
..Construction and extraction		817,000	(445,000)
..Installation, maintenance, and repair		160,000	93,000
.Production, transportation, and material moving occupations	Major	1,068,000  (100%)+	(3,857,000)
..Production		597,000	(3,465,000)
..Transportation and material moving		471,000	(392,000)
Total (Employed) Immigrant Gain and Employment Level Gain	Total	6,914,000	1,991,000
Percent of Employment Level Gain to New Arrival Immigrants	%	347%

Maybe Stuart Anderson's, National Foundation for American Policy would like to respond to these numbers.

About the Data:
"Employment Level Loss/Gain" is BLS-CPS data where year 2000 avg. employment levels are subtracted from year 2010 avg. employment levels.

"Employed Immigrants" is the Census-CPS employment status of immigrants arriving after the year 2000.  
(2) The category 'Arrived 2000 or later' includes 2000-2010





Data:
Occupation of Employed Foreign-Born Civilian Workers 16 Years and Over by Sex and Year of Entry: 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2010.
Internet release date: 9/2011
http://www.census.gov/population/foreign/files/cps2010/T2.7.xls

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Data extracted on: December 12, 2011 (11:55:42 AM) 

Series Id:           LNU02032201
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Management, Professional, and Related Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Management, professional, and related occupations (0008-3540)

Series Id:           LNU02032202
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Management, Business, and Financial Operations Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Management, business, and financial operations occupations (0009-0950)

Series Id:           LNU02032203
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Professional and Related Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Professional and related occupations (0999-3540)

Series Id:           LNU02032204
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Service Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Service occupations (3598-4650)

Series Id:           LNU02032205
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Sales and Office Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Sales and office occupations (4699-5930)

Series Id:           LNU02032206
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Sales and Related Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Sales and related occupations (4700-4960)


Series Id:           LNU02032207
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Office and Administrative Support Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Office and administrative support occupations (5000-5930)

Series Id:           LNU02032208
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations (5999-7620)


Series Id:           LNU02032209
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations (6000-6130)


Series Id:           LNU02032210
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Construction and Extraction Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Construction and extraction occupations (6200-6940)

Series Id:           LNU02032211
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations (7000-7620)

Series Id:           LNU02032212
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Production, Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Production, transportation, and material moving occupations (7699-9750)

Series Id:           LNU02032213
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Production Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Production occupations (7700-8960)

Series Id:           LNU02032214
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Unadj) Employment Level - Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over
Occupation:          Transportation and material moving occupations (9000-9750)