Correlation Therefore Conclusion

In my wildest dreams, I can not imagine Peri, Shih and Sparber, concluding the mere presence of immigrant workers causes wages to rise –- these are employment based migrants, their gig is to move to the locations where the wages are rising.

The mainstream media is on a mission to extol the virtue of the  In this particular instance, it is impossible to tell if the journalistic pro-immigration slant is coming from the Wall Street Journal authors, Josh Zumbrun and Matt Stiles and if the article’s title, "Skilled Foreign Workers a Boon to Pay, Study Finds” was their idea, was created by their editor, or is actually contained in the “Study” that Zumbrun and Stiles neglected to name.  I guess the WSJ authors thought that nobody would be interested in reading the study, authored by, Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih, Chad Sparber,  and entitled, “Foreign STEM Workers and Native Wages and Employment in U.S. Cities”, so why bother to provide the name of the study that they are writing about? 

STEM Crisis Myth

Three points of interest in this post.

A very good write-up on IEEE Spectrum, I hope they don’t mind that I’m using their image to encourage you to read their article.

The STEM Crisis Is a Myth

By Robert N. Charette
Posted 30 Aug 2013 | 19:28 GMT

 

“A Matter of Supply vs. Demand: Every year U.S. schools grant more STEM degrees than there are available jobs. When you factor in H-1B visa holders, existing STEM degree holders, and the like, it’s hard to make a case that there’s a STEM labor shortage.”

http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth

 

H-1B STEM Investigation Reveals No Shortage

Echoing a study completed by a job placement website called Bright (http://www.bright.com/).

July 27, 2013•04:11 PM

Is the U.S. Too Hungry for Foreign Workers?

• Ray Hennessey

Excerpt:
Bright used its database of roughly a million active resumes over the past 45 days and created dummy job descriptions based on so-called labor condition applications, or LCAs, filed by companies in the second quarter. LCAs aren't actually H-1B visa applications, but they indicate an intention on the part of a company to fill an opening with a foreign worker.
Then Bright matched its candidate pool with available jobs. What's more, it looked at the matching geographically. So, if a company in Troy, Mich., posted a position for a computer programmer, Bright only found qualified candidates in that geographic area.

Read the rest on news.terra.com

Computer Occupations & H-1B Report 2012

135,966 H-1B initial employment approvals in FY 2012

• In 2012, the H-1B cap of 85,000 was exceeded by 53,446. 
• 83,444(61.4%) of 135,966 initial employment approvals, in known occupations, went to Computer-related occupations
• Another 924 employment approvals went to Occupations unknown for a total of  136,890 employment approvals. 

Findings:

At the core of the temporary immigration problem is the static USCIS definition of the Specialty Occupation.  With a static definition of occupations that are open to temporary immigration, we can be assured that work authorizations will be wasted in occupations where they are unneeded, while industries having a genuine need will clamor for higher immigration rates .  Moreover, the temporary immigration programs are completely insensitive to occupational unemployment rates and current degree production.  Adding workforce capacity to occupations where employment levels are declining is –- flat stupid. 
USCIS still reports to Congress using the out of print Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT), there is no way to crosswalk DOT occupational titles to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) titles because many titles did not exist at the DOT last printing in 1991. The Bureau of Labor Statistics abandoned the DOT in 1998.

The US now has the capability to determine if individual occupational levels are growing,  if growth in an occupation is stagnant or declining it would be a very trivial process to ‘close’ the occupation to temporary immigration, thus freeing up visas for occupations that are experiencing growth. 

The one year (occupation specific) temporary immigration hiatus would reduce unemployment costs, student loan defaults and home loan foreclosures because it would provide a one year period where employers would be motivated to hire from the unemployment roles if they wish to participate in the early stages of recovery from economic recession(s).

STEM – Don’t Let This Happen to Your Job

 

The H-1B (High skill foreign labor) debate centers around the “Computer-related occupations” employment classification.  Computer-related occupations have borne the brunt of High Skill immigration policy,  Computer-related occupations is just 2.57% of the nation’s employment, but averages 46% of all new H-1B visas and 50% of all H-1B renewals.

(Table 1)

(Table 2)

The remaining H-1B visas are distributed among seventeen occupational groups when including, “Occupation Unknown”.  In addition to the H-1B visa, we have the L-1 Intracompany visa, which is nearly identical to the H-1B.  The table below uses the Computer-related occupation percentages from Table 1 (H-1B initial approvals), to estimate population of Computer-related (C&IS) L-1 visas.

(Table 3)

Temporary work visas are only part of the story, we need to examine the “Bright Outlook” occupations that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are always pushing in Employment Projections.  The following table uses BLS Occupational Employment Statistics to determine employment level growth in Computer-related occupations. 

The “USA Jobs Remaining” column is the employment growth/loss with employment granted to temporary immigrants subtracted.

(Table 4)

Of course, H-1B and L-1 visas authorize employment for 3 years. We need to evaluate  the “USA Jobs Remaining” data in 3 year periods. Also note that temporary immigrant data for 2011 is still not published – so the statistic (table below) gets a “free” 117,500 jobs in 2011.

(Table 5)

The “USA Jobs Remaining” entries in Table 5 are a simple aggregate of the corresponding entries in the “USA Jobs Remaining” column in Table 4.  Recall that the 2011 temporary immigration data is unavailable, the  2009-11 statistic will only get worse.

Finally, we need to consider the Computer-related (C&IS) degrees conferred to citizens and permanent residents. Of course, the terms of the H-1B and L-1 visa is that there must be a job waiting upon arrival, so our students take a “back-seat” to the temporary immigrants.

(Table 6)

Some of the citizen and permanent resident students in Table 6 may already be employed, or may be in school full time in progress to a higher degree.  However, when they enter the workforce, they will be competing for employment with foreign students who enjoy a 29 month,  Social Security exempt while under a student visa, intern status on OPT.  (Qualified Foreign Students)

We’ve done a good job of warning American students to stay away from Computer Science majors, In the light of the USCIS announcing more eligible majors for the OPT classification, I assume the immigration lawyers are looking for other STEM occupations to victimize.

Source:

2011 OES Employment level data can be found at  National Cross-Industry 

OES Employment level data (National Cross Industry) for 1999-2010 Here

H-1B Characteristics Reports (2004 through 2010) can be found Here

L-1 visa data can be found Here (Excel)

The 1999 through 2003 H-1B Characteristics Reports appear to be unavailable online, data was taken from archive copies.

Educational data was downloaded from NSF resources before a change to the web interface. I do not know if it is still possible to query the data by residency status.

Incredible Elasticity in US Science and Engineering Labor Force

In 2010, the Unemployment level for the Science and Engineering Labor force was 426,215.  The average Science and Engineering Labor Force growth was 26,627 yearly (2005 to 2010).  During the same period, the Foreign Born, Science & Engineering Labor force grew by an average of 31,245 per year. In terms of California Unemployment Benefit levels ($450.00 wk), the preference for foreign professionals costs the various State and Federal Unemployment Agencies $731,133,000.00 per 52 week period.  See the US S&E heat map from the Population Reference Bureau (Link)

Excel MSA Employment Charts used in this presentation with other Metro Areas available for download. (File > Download)

The American Community Survey(Census ACS) provides data on the Science and Engineering (S&E) Labor Force statics.  The Unemployment level data include the foreign and native born.  It is important to remember that the “Labor Force” consists of the Employed” plus the “Unemployed” when evaluating the information to follow.

I’ve created some charts that detail the characteristics of the S&E employment picture in the various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA).  The first Chart is the Dallas/Fort Worth MSA, where Jennifer Wedel’s husband has had problem finding Semiconductor Engineering work for the last three years.

If you are not familiar with the Wedel family, you can watch her conversation with President Obama here.

 

 

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area

At first glance we see an S&E Unemployment rate that is fairly high for the Brightest and Best, but we also see a 4.1% increase in the Foreign born in the S&E Labor force for the Dallas Fort Worth MSA. 

The following chart shows that from 2008 to 2010, over 12,000 Native born S&E professionals lost employment, while more than 8,000 Foreign born professionals gained employment (2007 to 2010).

 

Had these 8,000 jobs stayed with the Native born, the Unemployment Insurance liability for the Dallas Fort Worth MSA would have been for 4,000 professionals instead of 12,000 professionals.  Unemployment Insurance (in California) maximum is $450.00 per week, over the course of a year, benefits for 8,000 formerly well paid professionals would cost $18,720,000.00 to the Texas and Federal Unemployment system(s).

 

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area

The New York MSA has the largest S&E Labor Force at 447,600

The Foreign born S&E share of the Labor Force only grew by 1% in the five years covered. The 6.5% Unemployment rate is rather high for a primarily college educated workforce.

 

In the Chart above, we see elasticity of 30,000 Native born professionals in the New York MSA. The increase in the employment of 30,000 for the Native born only decreased the Unemployment level by about 2,500 in 2006 (this is likely due to the hiring of new college graduates). 

It is interesting to note that the increase in Unemployment from 2008 to 20009, coincides with the decrease in the Employment level of the foreign born.  The drastic drop in employment of the Native born does not show a corresponding rise in Unemployment levels.

From 2009 forward, the 30,000 the newly hired Native born professionals have been dismissed.

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area

 

In the Silicon Valley area, we see a 3% increase in the already very high Foreign born S&E Labor force.   Additionally, the 7.6%  Unemployment rate is disturbing for the center of the universe for all things technical.

 

There does not appear to be the wildcat layoffs of Native born professionals, in the San Jose MSA.

The chart above seems to indicate that for every 15,000 Foreign born professionals that are hired, 3,000 jobs for Native born professionals are created.  The H-1B propaganda machine seems to have their ( “Each H-1B creates Five jobs”) statistics backwards. 

 

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area

This report wouldn’t be complete if the Microsoft Metropolitan Area wasn’t included.

 

The first thing I notice above is that the Foreign born S&E Labor force levels increased by 6.1%

 

In the above Chart, we clearly see the (Native born) labor elasticity of about 18,000 S&E professionals. It also appears that the 2008 recession only affected Native born professionals. 

The  (2005 to 2009) addition of Native born professionals only flattened the Unemployment level, but did not show a decline.  There is however, a rise in Unemployment levels that corresponds with the increasing level of Foreign born professionals.

There is also an odd two year offset in this chart between the commencement of Native born professionals (2005) and the hiring commencement of Foreign born professionals (2007).  It would appear that the Seattle MSA is benefiting from the stricter adjudication of H-1B visas over these past years.

In closing, the data suggests that there is more than adequate labor elasticity in the Native Born S&E Labor Force.  Knowingly or not, High Skill immigration allows US Employers to socialize employment costs onto the Unemployment Insurance System.

I would suggest that we modernize our State Unemployment Claims systems to require the inclusion of occupational titles, so that the need for business-related immigration can be electronically verified regionally.  Additionally, the Department of Labor’s occupational classification for H-1B visa should be updated to the modern NAICS-SOC, rather than the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT), which was last updated in 1991.

 

Technorati Tags: Science,Engineering,H-1B,Immigration,Unemployment

Source Data:

Census, Current Population Survey (CPS)

Downloaded from: Population Reference Bureau, March 4, 2012

Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) internal microdata files.

Definition: Scientists and engineers include people in computer science, engineering, architecture, life science, physical science, and social science occupations.

Notes: Data are subject to both sampling and nonsampling error. A hyphen (-) indicates data are not available

Average H-1B Salary 2009

Just a couple of notes on the new NFS document that I found interesting. 

National Science Foundation, “Science & Engineering Indicators 2012”

 Chapter 3. Science and Engineering Labor Force

There are a few anomalies again in the NFS salary data for H-1B occupations, in six of the occupations (yellow Colorcode), H-1B workers with a Master’s degree are earning less than those with a Bachelor’s degree. It appears that in all six of these occupations, Master’s degree holders are also earning less than the average for “All degree levels”.

The Grey Colorcode indicates that Master’s degree holders in these occupations earned less than the “All degree level” average.

H-1B visa recipients tend to possess advanced degrees. In FY 2009, 58% of new H-1B visa recipients had an advanced degree, including 40% with master’s degrees, 6% with professional degrees, and 13% with doctorates. This degree distribution differs by occupation, with 83% of mathematical and physical scientists holding advanced degrees (44% with doctorates).  Among life scientists, 87% hold advanced degrees (61% with doctorates). Chapter 3, “Science & Engineering Indicators 2012”

 

I believe that the statement above can be paraphrased that 40% of 2009 H-1Bs have Master’s degrees, while 42% have Bachelor’s degrees – anecdotally this indicate a statistically valid sample.  Mathematical, physical and life scientists would appear to have a higher occurrence of  doctorate degrees, simply due to the fact that the NSF took the initiative to mention the fact.

In contrast, in the 2006 data, Master’s degree holders in Computer-related occupations and Writing earned $400.00 per year less than Bachelor’s degree holders in the same occupations.

If we had access to more data, such as the number in each group, location of employment, US or foreign degreed,we could probably make a determination why Master’s degrees appear to losing ground in this population.

A Notable Excerpt on Research & Development  Employment

Between 1994 and 2004, R&D employment in the United States by foreign firms grew slightly faster than R&D employment abroad by U.S. firms. During this period, R&D employment in the United States by majority-owned affiliates 26 of foreign firms rose from 89,800 to 128,500, a 43% increase (figure 3-48). Over the same 10 years, R&D employment by U.S. firms at their majority-owned foreign affiliates grew 35%, from 102,000 in 1994 to 137,800 in 2004.  Adding U.S. parent company R&D employment of 716,400 workers, U.S. MNCs employed 854,200 R&D workers  globally (figure 3-49) in 2004. The average annual growth in R&D employment abroad by U.S. firms from 1994 to 2004 was 3%.  This shifted their proportion of overseas employment slightly, increasing it from 14% to 16% of total employment. The 2009 data on MNC R&D employment abroad show a markedly different trend after 2004 from the trend in the preceding decade.  About 85% of MNC R&D employment growth occurred abroad. Whereas employment abroad nearly doubled, domestic employment during the same period grew by less than 5%. As a result, the proportion of MNC R&D employment located outside the  United States went from 16% to 27%.  The unprecedented increase in U.S. MNC R&D employment abroad contrasts with the continuation of modest growth in R&D employment by foreign firms in the United States. Because of this, unlike in 2004 and prior years, the amount of R&D employment attributed to U.S. MNCs abroad is much larger than the comparable figure for foreign firms in the United States (figure 3-48). The data in figures 3-48 and 3-49 are consistent with two trends discussed in this chapter: growth in S&T employment in the United States coinciding with a general expansion throughout the world of the capacity to do S&T work. Chapter 3, “Science & Engineering Indicators 2012”

Radical Conservative Immigration Policy

“Each 100 H-1B Initial Employment Approvals are associated with 90 job losses for ‘Natives’ from 2001 to 2010.”

We have yet another “study” of immigrants in the United States workforce, this one associates different classes of immigrants with employment creation for “natives”.  The study is short on definitions, does not include a list of assumptions and does not include data, but heck let’s just take the author’s word that all is correct and good.

Today’s Featured Study:

“IMMIGRATION AND AMERICAN JOBS”

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH AND THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW AMERICAN ECONOMY

Written by:  Madeline Zavodny
http://www.renewoureconomy.org/aeireport

 

While the country teeters on the edge of a double dip recession, let’s plug-in some numbers into the formulas that the “conservative” think tanks are promoting as an employment growth solution.  Our goal here is to reduce the Current U-6 Underutilization Rate by 33%, thus creating 8 million jobs for “natives” by allowing more immigration as Ms. Zavodny suggests.

I present “What if” scenario CASE 1: and CASE 2: for creating 8 million jobs for “Natives” as per Zavodny’s policy recommendation.

CASE 1:

Zavodny: “Every additional 100 foreign-born workers with an advanced degree created an additional 44 jobs for US natives.”

In the table above we see that adding 18 million new persons with advanced degrees to the labor force “might” bring the Unemployment rate down to levels that are considered “full employment”. 

On the other hand, if Zavodny’s conclusions are wrong and the economy does not create 26 million new jobs as a result of adding these immigrants, the Headline Unemployment rate (U-3) would climb to 18.3% and the United States would be stuck with 18 million more people to house, clothe and feed.  This would be some pretty high-stakes policy poker.

 

CASE 2:

Zavodny: “Every additional 100 foreign-born workers who earned an advanced degree in the US and then worked in STEM fields created an additional 262 jobs for US natives.”

The chart above is a bit more conservative with 2.62 native jobs created for every immigrant with a US advanced STEM degree.  In this case we only need to bring in about 3 million immigrants and dedicate 100% of the science curriculum to STEM disciplines – AND -- dedicate all of the NCES advanced degree programs to immigrants for the next 10 years. 

The STEM occupations employ about 7.6 million persons, but only 1.8 million in the STEM occupations have an advanced degree.  Another 3.3 million STEM workers have bachelor’s degrees and about 2.4 million have some college, an associate degree or less. Adding 3 million immigrants to a population which is now only 1.8 million -- might tend to affect wages a little bit.

If the Zavodny Formula for STEM workers were to fail and these new immigrants were to engage in an employment bidding war to remain employed in the United States, the likely result would be another spate of housing foreclosures.   The Census homeownership rate is currently 66.3%, STEM is a well paying field, so failure of this Zavodny Formula could cause slightly more than 2.2 million additional housing foreclosures.  Fresh out of college immigrants would predominately enter the rental housing market.

CASE 3:

Zavodny: “The estimates show that a 10 percent increase in H-1B workers, relative to total employment, is associated with a 0.11 percent increase in the native employment rate. During the sample period of 2001–2010, this translates into each additional 100 approved H-1B workers being associated with an additional 183 jobs among US natives.”

 

Okay, we get down to the meat of the “citizenship provisional” visa, the H-1B.  This is the temporary worker program that encourages foreign nationals to squander their youth chasing the dream of US citizenship; it is reasonable to conclude that citizenship will not be awarded until the worker has completed 10 to 15 years of continuous employment. Why? Because corporate lobbyists have favored temporary immigration over the Employment Based Preference entrance visa with a 5 year Lawful Permanent Residence requirement prior to naturalization.

I have no idea how to decipher Zavodny’s statement, “…a 10 percent increase in H-1B workers, relative to total employment…”, is the 10 percent increase a variable in a regression formula? Or, an increase in the actual data? Is the 10 percent H-1B increase offset by a year, or instantaneous?

Displayed below is the actual H-1B Initial Employment Approvals aligned with the Total Loss/Gain in BLS employment levels for the years 2001-2010.

I can’t see how Zavodny arrives at a 100 to 183 jobs for “Natives” ratio for the same period, when considering the numbers in the above table, I guess I’ll never understand the new math(s).

Rebuttal Data:

Census Homeownership Data:

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr311/graph311.html

Educational Data:

WebCASPAR Integrated Science and Engineering Resources Data System

https://webcaspar.nsf.gov/index.jsp?subHeader=WebCASPARHome

H-1B Initial Employment Approvals:

“USCIS: Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers”

Fiscal Years 2001 through 2009

Employment Level Loss/Gain Data:

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Series Id: LNU00000000

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (Unadj) Population Level

Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population

Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over

Data extracted on: January 1, 2012 (3:55:39 PM)

http://www.bls.gov/data/

STEM Employment and Educational Statistics

U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration

“STEM: Good Jobs Now and for the Future”

By David Langdon, George McKittrick, David Beede, Beethika Khan, and Mark Doms,
Office of the Chief Economist

HireAmericansFirst.org

"New organization http://www.hireamericansfirst.org/ is gearing up to oppose Industry efforts to increase the H-1b visa cap in 2008, and to educate Congress on the harm caused by the H-1b program. Please join us."

This is a very interesting data collection experiment by the ProgrammersGuild. The lobbying agency CompeteAmerica (AKA trade-association) continues to press Congress for additional high-tech guest worker visas. So far, CompeteAmerica refuses to publish these "jobs" in a central location – to prove the existence and prove that these are not multiple instances (head hunter listings) of the same position.

HireAmericansFirst.org allows American workers to display their qualifications and talent anonymously so that the stigma of "anti-immigrant" is not attached to the activist’s name. One place HireAmericansFirst.org might look for membership is the pool of recent College graduates.
Employment prospects for America’s brightest and best continue to be bleak. (click on image to enlarge)

So far, I’ve been unable to determine if the surplus in American college graduates is a condition of new graduates unable to find work, or new graduates and guest workers displacing current workers.

One of the problems with the L-1 and H-1B temporary worker programs is that the Department of Labor is not required to advertise these open positions to American workers during the six month approval process (Apr. 1 to Oct. 1).

Instead of increasing the cap on guest workers, American should be more careful of the visas that are granted. Examination of Senator Grassley’s "Top 20 H-1B Employers" show the trend that the majority of highly-skilled guest workers are in the business of offshoring American jobs.

Top 20 H-1B Employer list 2006:
2006 H-1B and L-1 visas in Top 20 list -- Total visas = 48,159
Business Process Outsourcing Specialists (12) = 73.43%
Accounting Services (2) = 6.19%
Producers of Tangible Goods (6) = 20.38%

(sum may not total due to rounding)
The H-1B and L-1 Offshoring Visa

In effect, these positions are reserved for guest workers, there is no requirement that the "job" advertised to the American work-force prior to applying for, nor prior to the guest worker approval/employment unless the employer is H-1B dependant, or a willful violator.

On January 21, 2008, I received a newsletter from Immigration Weekly.

"The immigration community is bracing itself for a historical and unprecedented
exhaustion of the H-1B cap. Employers can petition H-1B workers for the October
1, 2008 start date beginning April 1, 2008."

"Because the filing date is approaching, and the quota is expected to be reached in the opening day of availability, H-1B petition preparation should start now. Those people looking for petitioners should intensify their job search right now to ensure sufficient time for an H-1B petition to be prepared for filing by the first day of April."
http://www.rreeves.com/news_article.asp?aid=497

Looking for petitioners? Shouldn't that read, "those with chronically unfilled positions..."

Here is a good overview of H-1B dependent employer requirements -- employers who are required to attest that they couldn't find a qualified American candidate.
http://www.usabal.com/visas/Detail_%20SummaryDOLregs.html

Myth: Labor Shortage in Computer and Math

Misinformed, or simply telling lies? Bill Gates and others are selling fairy-tales.

Google Video: Bill Gates before the U.S. Senate
Youtube Video: Robert Hoffman Oracle/CompeteAmerica debates Ron Hira on CNBC

2005 and 2006 H-1B and Educational data is not yet available for Computer and Mathematical Occupations, yet growth in the labor force, up-to 2004, still far exceeds employment growth totals to May 2006.

Note: Computer and Mathematical occupations shed 160,190 existing jobs between 2000 and 2002. During this employment contraction, 165,229 computer-related H-1Bs were approved for initial employment. 2000 -- 2002 domestic job losses (160,190) and job losses due to H-1B replacement/displacement workers (165,229) caused reserves in the labor force of 325,419 Computer and Mathematical professionals.

The graph below shows additions to the labor force (permanent resident Math and Computer Science BS degrees awarded plus H-1B initial employment approvals) compared to employment growth since 1999. (click image to enlarge)

Note: Over 97% of all H-1B initial employment approvals are also approved for continuing employment and a recent Duke University study indicates that some 500,000 of these workers are seeking permanent resident status. Statistically, the unpublished numbers of departing H-1B workers are insignificant.

In the graph below, I've removed the H-1B data to determine if the domestic educational system would have serviced workforce requirements of Math and Computer Science employment.

Below, we can again note the workforce reserve of 160,190 idle Math and Computer Science workers displaced in the 2000-2002 employment contraction. Furthermore, the educational data does not include, B.S. degrees awarded to foreign students enrolled in American colleges, postgraduate degrees, A.S. degrees, nor vendor certifications. (click image to enlarge)

As of 2002, the domestic educational system has clearly resumed servicing the industry's Math & Computer Science employment needs.

The high employment levels in 2000, were most likely the result of the Y2K buildup, 2001 employment levels were still a bit high due to the Dot-Com bubble. Also, in 2002, Microsoft's first stable, IP based - LDAP enabled, operating systems were becoming fully implemented. (Windows 9x burned gazillions of administration hours.)

The 325,419 professionals displaced in 2001-2002 are simply out of luck, if the H-1B program continues, students studying Math and Computer Science will find that careers in these occupation(s) are temporary, future generations will refuse to study these disciplines without better employment prospects.

In the unlikely event that substantial domestic job growth is experienced, in Math and CompSci. we have 1999 as an example.

Somehow, Mathematics and Computer Science occupations grew 11.93% in 2000 (312,730 jobs) while the NSF 1999 Employment Characteristics survey reported unemployment at 1.2% for all degree levels.

Unemployment statistics represent only individuals who have been recently employed or are seeking employment in an occupation, unemployment statistics do not represent every person with education, training or expertise in an occupation.

Citing unemployment statistics as a reason to dilute the domestic labor force is dishonest.

Avg. Math and CS job growth 2000 -- 2006 = 65,160

Avg. Math and CS unemployment 2000 -- 2005 = 128,167

Employment Data:
BLS - OES 15-0000 Computer and Mathematical employment levels

1999 Unemployment survey:

National Science Foundation/Science Resources Statistics Division,
1999 SESTAT (Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/us-workforce/1999/tables/TableB5.pdf

2000 -- 2005 Unemployment data:
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/07s0612.xls

Educational Data:
NSF Educational Statistics http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/wmpd/tables/tabc-6.xls

H-1B Data:
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/H1B_FY05_Characteristics.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/FY2001Charact.pdf

Immigration Legislation for Dummies

Authors note:
This is a chapter of a larger thesis concerning the Globalist mantra of "the free movement of human capital, " and "full employment is assumed."

How do we allow highly-skilled guestworkers without detritus, or harmful effects to the domestic workforce?

Highly-skilled guestworker permits are labor subsidies granted to employers. When addressing highly-skilled guestworkers, it is reasonable to address the resolution of the following problems:

The purported labor shortage
Over subscription in certain occupations
The free-market wage system
Guestworker caps – housing
inflation - wage stagnation
Guestworker repatriation

The purported labor shortage
Labor shortages must be resolved domestically, the permanent cycling of guestworkers does not address the core purported labor shortage. Employers must subsidize the resolution of the labor shortage through educational grants. This educational subsidy should increased with each annual renewal per guestworker.

Economic incentives (incrementally ascending work-permit costs per guestworker) would motivate the employer to either sponsor the employee for citizenship, or replace the guestworker with a domestic employee as soon as possible.

The behavior of guestworker employers must be modified through an ascending education tariff to deter long term guestworker dependence.

Over subscription in certain occupations
Computer-related occupations represent 41.7% of all 2001-2005 initial employment H-1B approvals. Computer-Related payroll occupations represent 3.09% of the 2005 Full-Time wage and salary earners

The H-1B visa lottery system does not ensure that the best talent is approved for employment and many occupations are short-changed because the "Computer-related occupations" employment category is oversubscribed.

The free-market wage system
The value of American citizenship is now in question, excessive immigration diminishes the value of American citizenship; without immigration caps, American citizenship becomes valueless and living standards cannot be maintained. The scarcity of guestworker visas ensures that these visas retain value – the "brightest and the best" will no longer have interest in migration when the work-permit loses value.

Replacing the lottery system with a free-market system:
Each highly-skilled guestworker visa, should be evaluated in terms of the highest salary offer within each occupation where a visa is petitioned.

Similar to the method that professional sports teams draft college athletes, each team (occupation) would take-turns bidding for talent. The highest bidding firm, within the occupation, would win the "first-round" guestworker approval – ensuring that the most competitive salary offers "win" the guestworker approval within each industry.

By rotating through all of the occupations desiring guestworker visas, the over-subscribe occupation(s) would be last in line for approval and subject to the highest salary selection criterion.

Guestworker caps – housing inflation - wage stagnation
One important economic indicator for overall immigration caps should the availability of rental housing. Immigrants, our children and many wage-earners are entering a hostile rental housing market which has 636,000 fewer occupied rental units than in 1999, while growth in the Civilian noninstitutional population (16 and over) was 21,236,000. (1999 – 2006 Census and BLS data.)

(The 1997 "Second Home Mortgage Deduction" should be revisited, as millions of housing units are now listed as "Vacant Year Round.")

Support:
America's Rental Housing: Homes for a Diverse Nation
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/prevann.html
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/outside.jsp?survey=ln
Out of Reach

Guestworker annual caps would be some fraction of the (rental housing based) overall immigration caps.

America can no longer afford to allow housing inflation to cause inflation in salary-requirement. Affordable housing is the key to America’s global competitiveness. Reducing the wage-earner’s housing costs would in effect increase the wage-earners disposable income without a salary increase – wage-stagnation can be defeated by lowering sustenance costs.

Guestworker repatriation
To encourage guestworker repatriation, guestworkers from countries without retirement totalization agreements should have the option of being refunded the employee paid Social Security withholdings at the U.S. consulate in the country of origin.

State Unemployment Insurance Subsidizing H-1B Guestworker Program?

After watching, "Cohen & Grigsby's, Seventh Annual Immigration Law Update - Hot Topics in Immigration Law" -- a video presentation, which has enlightened us, as to how immigration attorneys feel about employment protections. (See InformationWeek Article) I realized that the H-1B industry is very sensitive to specific dates. In particular, April 1st, is the application date for new H-1B petitions, on October 1st, the approved H-1B candidates are granted admission into the United States to begin working.

The H-1B October 1st, employment commencement date, makes Fiscal Qtr1 (Oct. - Dec.) the most important time of the year for H-1B employers.

• The H-1B must be acclimated, a proficient knowledge-transfer in a technical field will run about 90 days.
• The domestic employee must be released before January 1st, to comply with Department of Labor 90 day severance rule when applying for new H-1B visas.

H-1B dependent employers and willful violator employers must attest to the following... "The employer will not displace any similarly employed U.S. worker within 90 days before or after applying for H-1B status, or an extension of status for any H-1B worker" http://www.dol.gov/compliance/guide/h1b.htm

Following this logic, Joe Sixpack, the Java slinging guru, is tasked with training his replacement on October 1, and is terminated effective December 31 (91 days before the April 1st.) Joe Sixpack was employed for Fiscal Qtr1, in its entirety. Therefore, Joe’s unemployment begins on the first day of the Fiscal Qtr2 (Jan. – Mar.)

In the following chart(s), I’ve downloaded BLS "Mass Layoff" data for the NAICS group, "Professional and technical services." Charts 1 - 4, are different views of the 1997 - 2006, mass layoff quarterly data.

This is as far as the BLS interface would allow me to "drill down" into Extended Mass Layoff data. I’ve posted the NAICS sub-codes to display that this category is the most vulnerable to H-1B replacement/displacement workers. (see Footnote 1)

Chart1 (click image to enlarge)

In Chart 1, we see a dramatic increase in Qtr2 yearly Layoff events for "Professional and Technical services." If we ignore the years 2001-2003, we observe a trend shift in persons involved in mass layoffs in Fiscal Quarter 2. Instead of returning to the pre-recession ratios, the Qtr2 layoffs persist. (If the 2001 recession ended in 2003-- layoffs should have normalized in 2004.)


Chart 2 (click image to enlarge)


Chart 2, groups fiscal quarters by year. Qtr2 layoffs remain stubbornly elevated, while other quarterly layoffs have returned to levels commensurate to pre 2001-2002 recession levels.

Chart 3 (click image to enlarge)

In theory, layoff events should be equally distributed throughout the year, 25% per Fiscal Quarter. The Qtr2 layoff data indicates that the layoff ratios were behaving normally, even through the 2001 recession, Qtr2 layoffs began to spike in Fiscal year 2002. (The disturbance in 2000 - 2001 (Qtr1 & Qtr4) may be the related to the climax of theY2K buildup and emergency rebuilding of infrastructure after 9/11.)

Chart 4 (click image to enlarge)

If the case that elevated fiscal Qtr2 layoffs events are expected in business practice, isolating the Qtr2 data provokes more thought.

Chart4 Graph-points = Qtr2 - ((Qtr + Qtr3 +Qtr4)/3))

The current departure from the pre-2001 recession data is notable:

Avg. additional Qtr2 layoffs 1997 - 2000 = 12,167
Avg. additional Qtr2 layoffs 2001 - 2006 = 26,566

If I’ve done my math correctly, current Qtr2 (2001- 2006) layoffs are 235% of pre 2001 levels, or an additional 16,388 layoffs per year, above the 1997 - 2000 avg.

Just for conjecture let’s imagine that these 16,388 layoffs are the direct result of worker displacement, we can then determine how much money the State Unemployment Insurance programs and their re-insurers may be subsidizing the H-1B and other guestworker programs yearly.

The BLS report, Series Id: LEU0252881500, tells us that the median wage (second quartile) in the U.S. averaged $671.00 per week in 2006. Generally, unemployment benefits are 40% of the worker's previous weekly earnings, which would be $268.40 per week.

Estimated Impact to Unemployment Insurance programs and re-insurers:

• $4,398,777.78 per week

(Assume displaced American workers exhaust 26 weeks U.I.)

• $114,368,222.22 per year
  

Footnote 1:

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?&series_id=MLUQS00NN0035003
Series Id: MLUQS00NN0035003 (1)Data Element: Layoff eventsIndustry/Reason/Characteristic: Professional and technical servicesData Series: Extended Mass LayoffsState/Region/Division: United States
NAICS 541000 - Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services consists of:
NAICS 541100 - Legal Services
NAICS 541200 - Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services
NAICS 541300 - Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services
NAICS 541400 - Specialized Design Services
NAICS 541500 - Computer Systems Design and Related Services
NAICS 541600 - Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services
NAICS 541700 - Scientific Research and Development Services
NAICS 541800 - Advertising and Related Services
NAICS 541900 - Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Data available on request: netmenders2000@yahoo.com

Simple Analysis of the AeA Cyberstates Report

The High-tech occupations have high concentrations of male wage-earners, historical employment to population ratios for men (65 and under) indicate that over-all job growth is not maintaining pace with population growth.

Unemployment statistics have no historical relevance in monitoring the economic health of the Nation.
(The current job market for men is still below 1992 recession levels.)

In 2003, the employment to population ratio (Men 65 and under,) dipped below the 1983 recession levels. Additionally, these employment to population levels have not recovered to the 1992 recession lows and the duration of the 2001 recession has lasted 4 years, twice as long as the prior 2 recessions. Combining the Employed and Unemployed to population (men under 66) ratios together, denotes a declining trend in employment that must be abated.

Of course, women in predominantly male occupations will experience the same employment difficulties as men.

Simple Analysis of the AeA Cyberstates Report.
(April, 29, 2007)

A lobbying agency, called the AeA, is attempting to paint a positive picture on the disastrous over-subscription of "Computer-related occupations" sector in the H-1B guestworker visa program. As usual, the pro-guestworker camps are having problems proving the claim, "the H-1B is a job retention and creation tool." The meager improvements noted in AeA report is being touted as evidence that an increase in H-1B visas is justifiable.

After a quick bit of research, I found some interesting facts that would indicate a reduction in H-1B visas is required.

AeA Background:

AeA provides lobbying and advocacy services for our member companies before State, Federal, and International governments. AeA is the only high-tech trade association with public policy professionals working at every level of government to help our members achieve their operational and strategic business goals. http://www.aeanet.org/governmentaffairs/governmentstart.asp

Excerpt of the 2007 AeA Cyberstates press release:

The report shows that in 2006, the high-tech industry continued growing, adding nearly 150,000 net jobs for a total of 5.8 million in the United States. This growth is faster than the 87,400 jobs added in 2005. These two years of growth represent an increase of four percent. http://www.aeanet.org/PressRoom/prjj_cs2007_US1.asp

Fortunately, the AeA Cyberstates report has some historical data for comparison:

The total number of employees in the U.S. high-tech sector totaled 5.6 million in 2001, up just 1 percent from 5.5 million in 2000, the report says. http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,102329-page,1/article.html

Assuming the Cyberstates basis-data has not changed over the years, we had 5.6 million jobs in the high-tech industry for 2001 and the "Cyberstates" sector has grown to 5.8 million jobs 2006. The five year growth equals 200,000 jobs for an average of 40,000 jobs per year.

I thought that it might be interesting to compare the Cyberstates data, with the H-1B initial employment approval data (2001 through 2005) in just the computer-related occupations sector. The Cyberstates report covers a far greater number of occupations than just the "Computer-related" occupational group.

The job data used by the AeA for its Cyberstates is from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and is the most recent data from the agency. It encompasses 45 market segments related to the technology industry based on categories defined by the BLS, such as manufacturing, communications services, software, and computer related services. http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,102329-page,1/article.html

H-1B guestworkers approved for initial employment in 2001, immigrated and began working in late 2001, the average continuing employment approvals for expiring H-1Bs approved from 2000 to 2002 was 126%. The upside-down continuing approval rate is most likely due to single year continuances of H-1B visa, beyond the 6 year limit of the H-1B, while applicants waited for EB greencard visas.

Computer-related occupations (03)
USCIS H-1B Initial Employment Approvals
2001 = 110713
2002 = 25637
2003 = 28879
2004 = 56559
2005 = 52352
Total = 274,140

(Computer-related occupations represent 41.7% of all 2001-2005 initial employment H-1B approvals. Computer-Related payroll occupations represents 3.09% of the 2005 Full-Time wage and salary earners.)

Again, the H-1B figures of 274,140 initial employment approvals, only represent "Computer-related occupations." The AeA would have us believe that the growth of 200,000 jobs is good news even though a partial representation of H-1B guestworkers exceeds the five year job growth figure by 74,140 guestworkers.

The invasion of conscript workers has affected hiring practices, full-time salaried and wage-earner employment for the foreign-born (16.53% of the population), enjoyed 39.10% of job growth in 2006. (Due to differening data collection methods historical data is not comprarble to 2005-2006 data.)

It is understandable, that foreign-born will the recommend foreign-born for employment, but the underlying truth is that a large percentage of these 895,000 jobs are now held by guestworkers.

The following graph, indicates that increases in pathways to citizenship (ICRA and EB visas) improve male employment to population ratios, while increases in guestworker programs are detrimental to male employment to population ratios.

Click image to enlarge

Citizenship programs tend to instill hope and optimism, while guestworker programs enable labor arbitrage and instill pessimism. As a member of the "computer-related occupations" category, I can predict with confidence that future guestworker programs will be abused and mismanged and the U.S. economy will continue to be looted by Corporate Global Citizens.

Source data for H-1B employment approvals can be found in the yearly DHS reports:
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B):
Table 8A. H-1B Petitions Approved by Major Occupation Group of Beneficiary and
Type of Petition (Number):

Rebuttal to H1B Shortage Claims

Revised 4/17/07
Perhaps there is a need for the H1B "Highly Skilled Worker" visa for some under-served vocations, never the less, there is also a need to evaluate possible abuses in a H1B category that had a 14.6 to 1 approval ratio in 2005.

For 2005, in the "Computer Systems Design & Related Services" category, the average number of (initial and continuing) non Computer related H1B approvals were 5,857 approvals while 85,552 approvals were granted to the "Computer Systems Design & Related Services" category.

As a point of reference, the 2005, "Computer Systems Design & Related Services" H1B category, exceeded 35.2% of all H1B approvals granted; the two nearest competing categories were "Other Industries" at 17.85%, and the cap-exempt, "Colleges, Universities, & Professional Schools" category at 11.30%. Source: "H-1B Petitions Approved by Detailed Industry and Type of Petition", "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B):October 2004 to September 2005"

Examination of the BLS SOC occupation codes, shows the number of computer relevant payroll jobs was 2,855,320 in May, 2005. The SOC code groups include "Computer Scientists" at the high-end of the scale through, "Computer Specialists" at the lower occupational level.

"Computer-related occupations" is the Major H-1B Occupational Group, which is not an endless supply of job growth in the U.S. The H-1B petition approvals for computer related occupations in 2005 exceeded 43% of all petitions approved.

In addition to the H-1B visa, the Intracompany Transfer (L-1) visa also adversely affects the "Computer-related occupations" category. The L-1A visa can be extended to seven years and the L-1B visa duration can be five years. Our government doesn't seem to publish the number of L-1 yearly petition approvals, but the number of L-1 admissions is published. L-1 worker total admissions for the years 2000 through 2005 equals 1,861,589.

The 2006 OIG report on the Intracompany Transfer (L-1) visa states, "From 1999 to 2004, nine of the ten firms that petitioned for the most L-1 workers were computer and IT related outsourcing service firms..."

We have another immigration category to consider, this is the EB or Employment Based Preference visa, these visas are for the workers on a greencard path to citizenship. The EB-2 and EB-3 visas are five year exceptional-skill visas. The EB-2 and EB-3 category immigrants also directly impact the Computer-related occupations concerning domestic workers.

The EB visa should be the preferred method for utilizing the services of the foreign-born because the EB employee is (eventually) immune to immigration-status coercion.

Data observed from the EB category, defies the industry claims to a skilled worker and/or a skilled worker visa shortage. One would think that businesses, desperate for H-1B visas, would be exhausting this category with initial visas, but this is not the case. It appears that employers don't want to consider the Employment Based category's path to citizenship for importing foreign workers.

With 840,000 EB visas available for the years 2000-2005, only 184,436 Employment Based entrance Visas were granted. Additionally, the unused portion of these visas can be reclaimed from the prior year. http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html

It's not as if these Employment Based Preference immigration caps are not met. Employment Based Legal Permanent Residence status was granted to 943,093, 2000-2005 petitioners, my math shows that 758,657 of the EB petitioners entered the United States under a visa other than the Employment Based Preference category.

Conclusion that the data will support:
Taking an average of the H1B approvals for the years 2000 - 2005, there were 739,197 computer-related H-1B petitions approved in a six year period. These H1B computer-related workers represent 25.89% of the 2,855,320 computer-related payroll positions, the number of departing first term H-1B computer-related workers reduces the percentage to 24.85%. (Payroll is required for all H-1B visas.)

Originally, I posted some computer-related market-share numbers based upon USCIS admission data, a friend pointed out that the admission data is not reliable because there is no straight forward method to accurately determine the number of re-entries from this data. (Thanks JGO) Since that time I’ve found entrance visa data from travel.state.gov and have reworked my impact estimate to exclude re-entries and subtract the continuing employment approvals from the actual visas issued instead of subtracting from the H-1B initial employment approvals.

The INCORRECT Computer-related market-share estimate:
Percentage of Computer-related Payroll labor force:

H1B visa holders 25.89%
L-1 visa holders 30.27%
EB visa holders 6.69%
U.S. Citizens 37.15%

Immigration related impact $ 98,702,314,102.69 ($98.7Billion)

The CORRECTED Computer-related market-share estimate:
Percentage of Computer-related Payroll labor force:
H-1B = 24.85%
L-1 = 21.91%
EB-2 & EB-3 using E visas = 1.09%
Non EB entrance visa on EB-2 & EB-3 LPR = 4.56%
2005 Percentage of Computer Related foriegn workers: = 52.416%
Immigration related impact = $ 82,315,252,278.80 ($82.3Billion)

The six year percentage, of Computer-related H1B approvals is 46.43%, the 2005 H-1B median salary was $55,000 for all H-1B workers.

See the following document for methodology and data:
Project: Guestworker Impact on U.S. Computer-related occupations 2000-2005
http://immigration-weaver.blogspot.com/2007/04/project-guestworker-impact-on-us.html

Here’s a quote that defies the "shortage of skilled workers" claim – maybe these workers are too skilled? Maybe too street smart?

"Cap Exempt Petitions. As directed by the H1B Visa Reform Act of 2004, USCIS treats as exempt from the cap for any fiscal year the first 20,000 H1B petitions reflecting an alien beneficiary with a US-earned masters or higher degree. For FY2005 and 2006 USCIS has now received approximately 10,000 and 8,000 of such petitions, respectively."
http://www.immigration-lawyer.com/visa/H1B/h1b_numbers.htm#06-cap

I wonder why Bill Gates doesn’t want to hire these really smart graduates?

Only fifty-four percent of H1B employment approvals held a Masters degree or higher in 2005. Of the total 117,536 initial employment petitions for 2005 "Highly Skilled Worker" visas, only 63469.44 had completed a postgraduate degree according to the 54% statistic. If the educational requirement for Highly Skilled Worker visa had been a postgraduate degree in 2005, there would have been a visa for every applicant . The 20,000 H1B for postgraduates of American colleges exemptions would not have been tapped.

One method to make sure there are enough H1B visas available to "Highly Skilled Essential Workers" is to make sure all approvals are Highly Skilled. Raising the educational requirement to postgraduate degree and adjudicating visa applications in the order of highest salary offers first, will help ensure that guestworker candidates truly are the brightest and the best.

Data Sources:

OIG L-1 Visa:
Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program

USCIS
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2000
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2001
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2002
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2003
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2004
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2005

Office of Immigration Statistics Annual Flow Report(s)
Nonimmigrant Admissions (I-94 Only) by Class of Admission: Fiscal Years 2000 to 2005

BLS Occupational Data (SOC codes)
Computer and Information Scientists, Research(151011)
Computer Programmers(151021)
Computer Software Engineers, Applications(151031)
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software(151032)
Computer Support Specialists(151041)
Computer Systems Analysts(151051)
Database Administrators(151061)
Network and Computer Systems Administrators(151071)
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts(151081)
Computer Specialists, All Other(151099)

H1B Petitions Traditionally Exceed Caps

"Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers
(H-1B):Fiscal Year 2005"

In 2005, 117,536 H1B initial employment petitions were filed, of those petitions, 116,927 were approved for initial employment; the H1B approval rate for 2005 was 99.48%.

In 2004, 163,549 H1B initial employment petitions were filed, with 130,497 H1B initial approvals, but the approval rate was a more realistic 79.79%

===========================================

Initial H1B Petitions_Initial H1B Approvals__Approval rating
2002 __ 109,576 _____ 103,584 _________ 94.53%
2003 __ 108,526 _____ 105,314 _________ 97.04%
2004 __ 163,549 _____ 130,497 _________ 79.79%
2005 __ 117,536 _____ 116,927 _________ 99.48%
===========================================
Total __ 499,187 _____ 456,322 __________ 91.41%_

Top 20 - 2005 Initial and Continuing H1B Approvals:

Computer Systems Design & Related Services 32%
Other industries 17%
Colleges, Universities, & Professional Schools 10%
Industry unknown 7%
Architectural, Engineering, & Related Services 4%
Management, Scientific, & Technical Consulting Services 4%
Scientific Research and Development Services 3%
Elementary and Secondary Schools 2%
Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, & Payroll Services 2%
General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 2%
Securities & Commodity Contracts Intermediation & Brokerage 2%
Semiconductor & Other Electronic Component Manufacturing 2%
Telecommunications 1%
Offices of Physicians 1%
Computer and Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing 1%
Other Financial Investment Activities 1%
Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing 1%
Other Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services 1%
Health and Personal Care Stores 1%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1%

The H1B numbers 2002 through 2005:
Initial Approvals 2002 – 2005 = 499,187
2005 Median Salary = $55,000
Economic Salary Impact = $25,097,710,000.00
Average number of H1B initial petitions = 124,796.75
Average number of H1B initial approvals = 114,081
Average H1B approval rate = 91.41%

Continuing Employment Approvals 2002 – 2005 = 513,104
2005 Median Salary = $55,000
Economic Salary Impact = $28,220,720,000.00
Average number of H1B continuing petitions = 131426.75
Average number of H1B continuing approvals = 128276
Average H1B continuing employment approval rate = 91.41%

(Yes, that total is, $53 billion annually for only four years of economic immigration.)

One might also note that 116,927 H1B initial approvals in 2005 exceeded the stated cap.

"For example, approved petitions for initial employment are exempt from the cap if the sponsors are institutions of higher education or nonprofit organizations affiliated with institutions of higher education; the sponsors are nonprofit research organizations or governmental research organizations; or a beneficiary has a U.S. advanced degree."

Only fifty-four percent of H1B employment approvals held a Masters degree or higher in 2005. Of the total 117,536 initial employment petitions for 2005 "Highly Skilled Worker" visas, only 63469.44 had completed a postgraduate degree according to the 54% statistic.

One way to address the Highly Skilled Worker visa shortage is to raise the educational requirements to "Highly Skilled" (AKA postgraduate educational levels.) Additionally, petition approvals should be graded on the basis of the employment offer; long-term, full salaried employment offers are the best indicators of a genuine need for guestworker expertise.

If the minimum educational requirement for an H1B visa had been postgraduate degree in 2005, every qualified applicant would have received a visa. The recent addition of 20,000 postgraduate exemptions would not have been tapped.