Computer Occupations & H-1B Report 2012

135,966 H-1B initial employment approvals in FY 2012

• In 2012, the H-1B cap of 85,000 was exceeded by 53,446. 
• 83,444(61.4%) of 135,966 initial employment approvals, in known occupations, went to Computer-related occupations
• Another 924 employment approvals went to Occupations unknown for a total of  136,890 employment approvals. 

Findings:

At the core of the temporary immigration problem is the static USCIS definition of the Specialty Occupation.  With a static definition of occupations that are open to temporary immigration, we can be assured that work authorizations will be wasted in occupations where they are unneeded, while industries having a genuine need will clamor for higher immigration rates .  Moreover, the temporary immigration programs are completely insensitive to occupational unemployment rates and current degree production.  Adding workforce capacity to occupations where employment levels are declining is –- flat stupid. 
USCIS still reports to Congress using the out of print Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT), there is no way to crosswalk DOT occupational titles to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) titles because many titles did not exist at the DOT last printing in 1991. The Bureau of Labor Statistics abandoned the DOT in 1998.

The US now has the capability to determine if individual occupational levels are growing,  if growth in an occupation is stagnant or declining it would be a very trivial process to ‘close’ the occupation to temporary immigration, thus freeing up visas for occupations that are experiencing growth. 

The one year (occupation specific) temporary immigration hiatus would reduce unemployment costs, student loan defaults and home loan foreclosures because it would provide a one year period where employers would be motivated to hire from the unemployment roles if they wish to participate in the early stages of recovery from economic recession(s).

Employment Growth for College Grads

Table of BLS Employment growth over Population growth 1993 to present for persons with bachelor's degrees or higher.

By percentage, employment growth is worse now than in 2001. (click image to enlarge)

The reason I created the bachelor's degree eployment growth table was to question the percieved need for high-skill non-immigrant visas, which are averaging about 200,000 per year according to the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division.

Source MS Excel format:

Google source HTML format:

More detailed information is published on H-1B visas, here are some interesting notes on the H-1B visa that demonstrates over-subscription in computer-related occupations.

The National Science Foundation frames the problem:

Compared with natives, foreign-born individuals with advanced S&E degrees show no statistically significant salary differences when controlling for age, years since degree, and field of degree. At the bachelor’s degree level, foreign-born S&E degree holders still had a –6.3% salary differential.

At the doctoral level, the addition of occupation leaves no statistically significant difference between the salaries of underrepresented ethnic groups, compared with whites and Asians. For the foreign born, controlling for occupational characteristics actually moves differentials in a negative direction, suggesting that the [doctorate level] foreign born generally have better-paying occupations than natives.

http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/c3s1.htm#c3s16

In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer. This actually represents an increase in recent years (from a low of 25% in 2002) in the proportion of new H-1B visas going to computer-related occupations.

In 2006, 44% of those receiving new H-1B visas in computer-related occupations had master’s degrees, and a little more than 1% had doctoral degrees. Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006 are in S&T occupations Education Levels.

In FY 2006, 57% of [all] new H-1B visa recipients had advanced degrees, including 41% with master’s degrees, 5% with professional degree, and 11% with doctorates. http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/c3s4.htm

The NSF publication tells us that H-1B computer-related occupations:

...that computer-related occupations accounted for 51% of 110,000 H-1B visas in 2006.

...have a higher rate of non-postgraduates (bachelorate level or lower) than the H-1B program as a whole. (54% to 43% respectively)

...that H-1B non-postgraduate holders are concentrated in computer-related occupations due to very high subscription levels.

...that computer-related H-1Bs with masters degrees earned $400.00 less than those with bachelor degrees. See table: http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-29.htm

...that all foreign born S&E workers with only a bachelors degrees earn 6.3% less than Americans.

Obviously, the computer-related H-1B is oversubscribed at the bachelor degree level. If we could get USCIS to deny computer-related H-1B visas at the bachelor degree level. 35,100 of the 65,000 H-1B visa cap would be available to more qualified migrants.

American students at a disadvantage:

Many countries provide free K-16 education while America provides K-12, most Americans carry student loan debt for simple undergrad degrees. The foreign student assumes debt for postgraduate education at a higher "out of state" tuition level -- the colleges are financially motivated to place the higher paying foreign students in postgraduate programs.

The American postgraduate carries six years of student loan debt while many migrant postgraduate workers carry two years of student loan debt. If the American student can get into the postgraduate program in the fist place.

Foreign workers at a disadvantage:

Dual-intent non-immigrant employment visas have over-subscribed the EB PERM green card program. Effectively, the brightest and the best are competing for permanent residency with minimally qualified practitioners.

The better solution is to eliminate the H-1B and L-1 and only allow single year B-1 installation and training visas for temporary workers. Use the Employment-based visa program to the job it was designed to do -- filter employment based admissions by educational level and provide a reasonable (5 year) probationary period for citizenship.

If you want to be an immigrant -- update your skills to the postgraduate level

"Vivek Wadhwa, an adjunct professor at the Duke University Pratt School for
Engineering, doesn't buy into the noble notion that U.S. companies such as
Microsoft go overseas because the American job pool doesn't have the required,
high-end skills." http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08200/897726-28.stm

Wadhwa, also a former Tech industry Captain, is against the H-1B, but is also sensitive to the postgraduates of American colleges; non-immigrants wishing to become Americans that are trapped in limbo, because of per country quotas in the Employment based green-card system. Conversely, these quotas have saved the U.S. from being overrun with "weak" foreign graduates.
In other posts, I've displayed that our immigration levels are excessive, employment growth is not keeping up with population growth and housing inflation (caused by excessive immigration) is causing Americans to be economically evicted in our own country. The last thing we need is more immigration.

Instead of raising the Employment based visa caps which are adequate... re-arrange some categories to alleviate the backlog, but we need to be selective, as Wadhwa proclaims, some of these foreign degrees are Associate degrees disguised as Bachelor degree equivalent.

1. Create an exemption from the employment based per-country-caps for postgraduates of colleges located within America. (They tell us we need to update our skills if we want to be employed, thus if you want to be an immigrant -- update your credentials.)

2. The employment based (EB) visa quota includes spouses and children -- move these visas from the EB program to the Family sponsored visa quotas.

3. Eliminate the H-1B and L-1 abusive visa programs and put business visa programs back where they belong, under the Business visa (B-1) for the purpose of investment, equipment installation and training only. Non-immigrant employment visas are indenturing, step by step we are on the road to condoning slavery -- see the AGJOBS bill on the removal of worker protections, worker paid fees and wage caps.

4. Employment based immigration caps should not be a hard cap. During recessions, the U.S. does not create enough jobs for our children, but the immigrants keep coming. Employment based immigration should be performance based, i.e. some small percentage of the prior year's employment growth. If employment based immigration were to become performance based, corporations may not be so eager to offshore entire processes.
5. Employment based immigration enforcement is rather simple. If a worker is out of status, simply disallow the employer's tax deduction expense for out-of-status wages. If the employer requires illegal labor to compete, they're already bankrupt and haven't come to terms yet.
Taken from the video embedded below, Wadhwa explains the conclusions of Duke University studies... which eliminates all labor shortage propaganda.

• "... the multinationals are teaching these employees what they need and they are taking any education that they can get, it doesn't matter that the entire education system in India and China is garbage, and the graduates are weak, American companies will train them up because they are so cheap..."
• "... in almost every perspective Amercans [workers] were better..."
• "...the bottom line is that there is nothing wrong with American workers, they were better by far, not by a little, but by a lot..."
• "In a country that doesn't even have washing-machines, both GE and Whirlpool are designing appliances in India right now..."
• ...they [China] are desparate to move up the ladder to R&D, they are now coercing American companies to move their R&D there .... if the American companies are going to manufacture there they better move their R&D there."

April -- H-1B -- Fools

The National Science Foundation has published a document entitled, "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008." One very interesting point for 2006 was that Computer-related and Writers occupations in H-1B workers with a Bachelor’s degree, earned on average, $400.00 more per year than those with a Master’s degree.

The document also states:

"In 2006, 44% of those receiving new H-1B visas in computer-related occupations
had master's degrees, and a little more than 1% had doctoral degrees."

"In 2006, 51% of new H-1B recipients were in computer-related occupations, including 48% in the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services occupational category of "occupations in systems analysis and programming," which includes many S&E occupations, such as computer scientist, and technician occupations, such as programmer. "

"Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006
are in S&T [Science & Technology] occupations."

"Total 2006 new H-1B visas approved: 113,593."

Checking the numbers, the computer-related H-1Bs would total 57,932 and 44%, those with Master’s degrees were 25,490 H-1Bs. With only a little over 1% with Doctoral degrees, the Bachelor’s and Master’s holders were significant samples and comparative in number.

2006 Computer-related occupations H-1B Average Salaries:
Bachelor’s Degree = $56,000.00
Master’s Degree = $55,600.00

2006 Writers occupation H-1B Average Salaries:

Bachelor’s Degree = $37,900.00

Master’s Degree = $37,500.00
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/tt03-29.htm

What happened in FY 2006, that drove salaries down for Master's degree holders in Computer-related & Writers occupations? This was the first year of the 20,000 visa, U.S. postgraduate degree exception to the H-1B program. The FY 2006 application date was 4/1/2005, admission commenced on 10/1/2005.

. 20,000 cap exemption for U.S. masters and higher. Up to 20,000 aliens with masters or higher-level degrees from U.S. institutions of higher education will be exempt from the H-1B cap each year. Petitions for such individuals that are filed after the 20,000 exemptions are granted will be counted against the cap. Note: this does not impact the general exemption from the cap for individuals employed by institutions of higher education; that exemption remains. Effective date: March 8, 2005. [Sec. 425]. [Note: No further details of how this will be implemented have been announced.] http://www.oiss.yale.edu/visa/h1refact.htm

Restating other information taken from the NSF document, computer-related H-1Bs were 51% (57,932 ) of 113,593 H-1B approved, but computer-related H-1Bs were 68.16% of the 85,000 non-exempt H-1B cap.

The NSF hasn’t published detailed S&E graduation statistics since 2003, but the "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008" report did leak a little information on 2005 graduation data.

I guess that Bill Gates used the CRA – Taulbee (partial) educational studies and must not have been aware of this good news from the NSF when he recently addressed Congress:

Gates: "If the problem with High Schools is one of quality, the issue at our Universities is quantity, our higher education system does not produce enough top scientists and engineers to meet the need of the U.S. economy. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we are adding over 100,000 new computer related jobs each year, but only 15,000 students earned bachelor degrees in Computer Science and Engineering in 2006 and that number continues to drop." (3/12/2008 -- video 04:14)

The "100,000 computer related jobs each year" depends upon how you look at the data.

Computer related employment growth (BLS - OES)
2001 = (-92,870)
2002 = (-42,090)
2003 = 86,800
2004 = 238,880
2005 = 21,690
2006 = 114,190
Total = 326,600
Avg. per year = 54,433

From the immigrant's point of view, the tragedy of the H-1B and L-1 visa programs, are the backlogs they have created in the Employment based (EB) greencard system. If 100% of the foreign S&E graduates were accepted into the EB program, they would only consume 52% of the 120,120 visas available per year to First through Third preference categories.

(EB 1,EB-2,EB-3s are recaptured http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html)

The declining permanent residence and citizenship options for S&E graduates are depicted in NSF figure 3-61. http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/fig03-61.htm

click to enlarge image

Here is some recent pro-H1-B information that claims there is a labor crisis in the American S&E labor pool. The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) has published a study entitled, "TALENT SEARCH : JOB OPENINGS AND THE NEED FOR SKILLED LABOR IN THE U. S. ECONOMY." http://www.nfap.net/pdf/080311talentsrc.pdf

The NFAP takes a subjective look at the job openings from various advertisements for talent from large corporations for Dec. 07 and Jan.-Feb. 08. When we look at the data objectively, we find that the BLS Unemployment rate for college graduates 25 and over, is quite similar to the vacancy rate for the Top 30 corporations in the NFAP list.
http://www.nfap.net/pdf/080311talentsrc.pdf

In terms of employment, the size of each company, compared to vacancies (53,636), the vacancy rate is only 2.27%. The vacancy rate is very close to national unemployment data. Is it somehow the responsibility of our Government to ensure that corporations experience a 0% vacancy rate?

Series Id: LNS14027662
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title: (Seas)
Unemployment Rate – Bachelor’s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent
Age: 25 years and over Educational attainment: College graduates

Unemployed College Graduates

December 2007 = 2.2% (972,000)
January 2008 = 2.1% (953,000)
February 2008 = 2.1% (944,000)

Defining the problems associated with economic immigration:
Immigration and the housing meltdown are interrelated -- the pool of qualified buyers has been depleted with excessive demand for housing and excessive supply of labor in relation to employment growth. The government's solution? Throw more immigrants at the problem.

Corporations are asking for immigration increases commensurate with the size of the population, but our natural resources and infrastructure capabilities, increase at a more static rate. Thus, the fixed immigration rate is the correct immigration policy.

The H-1B and L-1 visas have damaged the more desirable Employment based greencard system. Due to over-subscription, employers cannot offer the greencard path as part of the initial employment offer.

The H-1B and L-1 are unique from all other non-immigrant visas, these non-immigrants are not required to maintain a relationship with the home country. Per diem costs for the employer are eliminated, these types of visas are hyper-competitive because employers are not required to pay a housing allowance -- in addition to the full wage.

The H-1B and L-1 visas have caps. The Employment based EB have quotas. The quota system is to encourage diversity in AMERICA, just because a country has a larger population is of no concern to American immigration policy.

USCIS does not keep departure information on non-immigrants, this could easily be accomplished with a swipe card-issued at customs to be kept with the passport. Allowing work-related non-immigrant visas, without keeping departure statistics is not good policy and a good argument against raising any current caps or quotas.

Source:
National Science Foundation: "Science and Engineering Indicators 2008"
Chapter 2. Section: Higher Education in Science and Engineering
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c2/c2s4.htm
Chapter 3. Section: Global S&E Labor Force and the United States
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/c3s4.htm

National Foundation for American Policy:
"TALENT SEARCH : JOB OPENINGS AND THE NEED FOR SKILLED LABOR IN THE U. S. ECONOMY." http://www.nfap.net/pdf/080311talentsrc.pdf

Science & Engineering Grads -- Not Employed

Table 3-12 below is copied from a National Science Foundation report: "Science and Engineering Labor Force." In Chapter 3, page 28, we find a curious statistic -- unemployment for 'Temporary residents' improves from the highest unemployment levels, to the lowest unemployment levels in the table over the course of 10 years. (PDF)

The national (Seas) Unemployment Rate in 1993 went from a high of 7.3% in January to a low of 6.5% in December (1993 avg. unemployment 6.91%.) The Unemployment rate for 2003 averaged 5.99%. (Hispanic Americans and temporary residents were the only S&E categories that improved with the lower national unemployment rate.)

The next chart is extracted from Bureau of Labor Statistics data...

While I was poking around on the NSF website, I noticed that NSF provides a "Not employed & not full-time student" category for the prior year's graduates. I thought it might be interesting to compare the two most recent datasets, examining how 2001-02 graduates fared against the 1997-98 graduates and the general population.

To keep things in persepective, I looked up the national Unemployment rates and provided averages for the years in question. One might assume that our brightest and best S&E new graduates would fare better than the population at large, but that does not appear to be the case.

(click on image to enlarge)

Bachelor's degrees:
Master's Degrees:

The data in this blog is the most current that I'm aware of.

National Science Foundation data:
Master's degrees
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf03319/tables/tabs2.xls
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf06329/tables/tab2.xls

Bachelor's degrees
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf06329/tables/tab1.xls
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf03319/tables/tabs1.xls

BLS Foreign Born

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/forbrn.t05.htm

NSF "Science and Engineering Labor Force." Chapter 3

http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/pdf/c03.pdf