Immigration Moratorium; Chapter 1

Immigration Moratorium

  Chapter 1: College Outcomes vs. Employment Growth

by Steve Kritzer November 20th 2015
Updated November 21st 2015

Subjects: Immigration moratorium, employment, college outcome, unemployment, H-1B,Green Card

The high-skill immigration debate is turning toward stapling a Green Card to U.S. conferred degrees. (The globalists call them advanced degrees without any further specificity, so we'll assume bachelors degrees and above in this exercise.)

Instead of writing about H-1B, this exercise coaxes college outcome data out of BLS Employment growth statistics verses Permanent Resident and Citizen bachelor's degrees conferred (U.S.) to find a "Not Employed" rate.  

The following section in the table displays the bachelors degrees and above and how that  "Not Employed" rate is changed as we accept more (U.S. college educated) Temporary Residents (non-citizens).

Retirement for those 65 and older are subtracted from the U.S. degrees conferred yearly at the rate of their presence in the population for the subject year. (A generous deduction since this percentage grows yearly and those degrees were conferred 40 years ago).

Finally, the original Employment Growth data does not match the available educational data, I adjusted that "Not Employed" rate in the final section of the table.  (I'm not calling it an unemployment rate because it would not be technically accurate.)

Bachelors Degree Employment Outcomes Since 2000
Citizen and PermRes Bachelors Degrees Conferred (2000-13)	20,720,142
Retirement (aging out) Bachelors Since December 1999	-3,420,761
Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth	17,299,381
BLS Employment Growth Bachelors (Dec. 1999 - Oct. 2015)	16,189,000
Bachelors Degree Not Employed	1,110,381
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent - U.S. only)	6.42%
Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)
Bachelors	661,474
Masters	1,044,480
Doctorate	126,813
Not Employed Percent with TempRes Degrees Added
Bachelors	10.24%
Masters	12.46%
Doctorate	7.15%
Total Not Employed Bachelors (w Res and Non res.)	17.01%
Rollback Employment to 2013 Levels (to match EDU data)	13,876,381
Bachelors Degrees Adjusted Growth (U.S. Citizen and PermRes.)	16,189,000
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (U.S.)	2,312,619
Temporary Resident Degrees Conferred (2000-2013)	1,832,767
Bachelors Degree Not Employed (Percent)	27.99%

Notes:  The number of Doctorate degrees conferred to Temporary Residents is miniscule over the 14 year period, 100% of the bachelors degrees are unnecessary as is some portion of the masters degrees.  The yearly average is 130,912.

Not all foreign students foreign student will be interested in staying, the current employment-based Green Card caps of 140,000 is adequate.  All temporary immigrant programs are likely unneeded.

* I noticed that when I rolled back the "Not Employed" to EOY 2013 levels, I did not subtract the 853,000 degree holders who had not yet retired.

Educational Data Source: https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/ 
Employment and Population Data Unadj. (Current Population Survey - CPS) Source: http://www.bls.gov/data/

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic License.

Misleading Employment Situation Report

Here's the quote from the first line of Employment Situation Report for June 2015.  "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent,..."

 These two pieces of data are not even from the same surveys. 
 

The problem here is that the Unemployment rate is taken from the Household Survey(CPS), not the Payroll report(CES). For the month of June, total employment(CPS) declined by 56,000, yet unemployment edges down by 0.2%. (More than 100% in the decline in the Unemployment rate for June is the result of people leaving the labor force.)

Employment for bachelors degreed and above (25 and older), employment increased by 30,000, curiously that unemployment rate also declined by 0.2%. 

Also, when we read the monthly Employment Situation Report, employment by Industry is taken from the Payroll report (CES) and the April and May reports were revised downward by 60,000. So this seemingly straight forward survey was off by 12% in the previous reports, and again, has nothing to do with the unemployment rate.

If you ever want to stump an idiot who tells you how great the economy is doing and points to the Unemployment rate as proof, ask them, "How many jobs were created that month, and what that number has to do with the Unemployment rate?"

Employment - Unemployment: 25 - 54 Age-group Still Getting Pounded.

Subjects: Unemployment, Immigration, Employment growth, Ages 25 - 54, Male, Female

I recently read a ZeroHedge article, by Tyler Durden, with a thesis on how most employment growth has been going to males, 55 years and older.  I noticed two flaws in the analysis. First, some comparisons only included the age-group 55 - 64 and other data presented includes ages 55 and over (including retirement age). Second, I did not see any consideration for the fact that many of these employed males are baby-boomers and may have aged into the 55 and over category, simply remaining employed in the same position.

(In an earlier posting, I noted that 2/3 of the 3 million net jobs created from 2000 to End of Year (EOY) 2009, were held by retirement age individuals beginning in 2010, most likely, this is a combination of aging into the age-category and choosing not to retire during recession, with some electing to return to the workforce.)

For the reasons I've stated above, I decided to look at the 25 through 54 age-group and do an Employment to Population growth sample from EOY 1999 to the present (end of month March 2015).  During this exercise, one thing that occurred to me is that this would be an opportunity to expose how meaningless the Unemployment statistic really is.

Current (March 2015) employment levels are still 691,000 below Jan. 31, 1999 levels.

In the chart above we are simply examining the aggregate growth of the BLS-CPS population growth (noninstitutionalized civilian population) with employment growth for the 25 - 54 year old age-group. I note that the population has declined by 1.05 million since 2007; considering the fact that immigration is well over 1 million per year, I presume the population decline is due to baby-boomers aging out of the category.

Unemployment vs. Not In the Labor Force: Additionally, I decided to take a look at the unemployment rates for the period and compare them to employment levels. I found two months with almost identical employment levels. In January 2009, employment was 95,921,000 and the Unemployment rate for this age-group was 7.7%.  In January 2015, employment was 95,834,000 and the Unemployment rate was 5.3%.  

Simple logic infers that a reduction of 487,000 (0.39%) in the population, with virtually the same employment levels, did not cause the Unemployment rate to be 2.4% lower. The cause for the Unemployment rate decline is that 2,705,000 fewer persons feel that seeking employment will produce any results.  

If you don't already know how this happens statistically, the search-term is "Not In the Labor Force" and there is a, freshly published, Bureau of Labor Statistics backgrounder here.

 As the ZeroHedge article article does imply, women do seem to have a tougher go than men.

Current (March 2015) female employment levels are still 679,000 below Jan. 31, 1999 levels.

In the chart for females above, I note that the 2001-02 recession caused a flat employment growth rate from 2001 until 2004.  Employment did not return to 1999 levels until 2006, and in comparison to the chart for males (below), the 2004-08 recovery for the female population did not exceed 1999 employment levels, even though this population had increased by 3 million.

Current (March 2015) male employment levels are still 11,000 below Jan. 31, 1999 levels. 
Also of interest is that the entire decline in the population for the age-group is limited to males.

For the male population, I note that the 2001-03 recession was short-lived, with 2007 employment levels reaching 2.6 million higher that Jan. 31, 1999, 4.3 million jobs evaporated by 2009, while the population had increased by 4.2 million for the period.

About these charts: These charts are a sample of how the job-creation engine is performing over a specific period of time.  In the 25 - 54 age group, we have added 6.2 million to the population (5.25%), combined with employment level losses of 691,000 since Jan. 31, 1999.

My recommendation (which will fall on deaf ears):  In his wisdom, the President is hell-bent on providing permanent residency to some illegal aliens living within the United States. The problem with this plan is he gives nothing in return and does nothing to restore the employment growth economic-equilibrium.  The remedy is an immigration moratorium, this can be achieved by a decrement in the caps on legal immigration for each illegal alien that is granted status on a one to one basis.

Data:
BLS-CPS http://www.bls.gov/data/


Period ending: March, 2015

(Unadj) Population Level - 25-54 yrs. 
Total = 124,949,000
Male = 61,334,000
Female = 63,615,000

(Unadj) Employment Level - 25-54 yrs.
Total = 96,300,000
Male = 51,615,000
Female = 44,685,000

Data extracted on: April 5, 2015 (2:19:06 PM)

Correlation Therefore Conclusion

In my wildest dreams, I can not imagine Peri, Shih and Sparber, concluding the mere presence of immigrant workers causes wages to rise –- these are employment based migrants, their gig is to move to the locations where the wages are rising.

The mainstream media is on a mission to extol the virtue of the  In this particular instance, it is impossible to tell if the journalistic pro-immigration slant is coming from the Wall Street Journal authors, Josh Zumbrun and Matt Stiles and if the article’s title, "Skilled Foreign Workers a Boon to Pay, Study Finds” was their idea, was created by their editor, or is actually contained in the “Study” that Zumbrun and Stiles neglected to name.  I guess the WSJ authors thought that nobody would be interested in reading the study, authored by, Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih, Chad Sparber,  and entitled, “Foreign STEM Workers and Native Wages and Employment in U.S. Cities”, so why bother to provide the name of the study that they are writing about? 

Did We Learn from the Great Recession?

As was the case in the Great Depression, Great Recession foreign-born employment levels also achieved 15% of employment. The Great Recession was preceded by two attempts at "Comprehensive Immigration Reform," a lobbying effort aimed squarely at labor-arbitrage. Additionally, US housing had become unaffordable through demand related inflation, and the mortgage industry had taken on an exuberant casino-style atmosphere.

 Ultimately, the salary requirement necessary to service housing obligations inflated beyond globally competitive levels and with the job creation engine already in distress, millions were laid-off. In the aftermath, working-age (16 to 65) employment levels for the first decade of 2000s, increased by only 1 million, while the non-institutionalized, working-age population grew by 22 million.

Education: Unemployment Outcomes

I read somewhere that there are more unemployed college graduates than there are unemployed high-school dropouts.  Considering the perception that many people seem to have (of those who post in comment sections),  regarding young people, I decided to take a look at those numbers.

Notably, there is a trick to the statistics that the media throws around concerning high-school dropouts, the media is generally quoting an “on time” graduation rate, many dropouts go on to finish high-school and may also go on to vocational school and/or college.

Second, it is true, there are more unemployed college graduates. This piqued my curiosity a bit further so I downloaded the adjusted BLS-CPS data series as far back as it goes (1992) to evaluate any discernable patterns over time. I chose  the latest available month for data, and plotted the following chart using November as my sample for each year going back to 1992.



Contrary to popular belief, the HS Dropout rate among those in the Civilian Population is declining, there is an uptick in the percentage of those with Some College (includes Associate degrees) and a higher percentage are finishing their undergraduate degrees.

Status: Computer Related Q3 2012 – Q3 2013

The BLS doesn’t have much faith in these quarterly numbers due small reporting samples, but they are the statistics used (misused?) in the media to quote the unemployment statistic by occupation.  I’m only interested in employment levels at the occupational level, but there is an interesting caveat.  The occupational unemployment statistic only includes those who are seeking work and their last job was in the specific occupation.

Therefore:

• A student looking for work in his chosen path will not counted as unemployed in the chosen occupation.
• A Programmer seeking employment as a web developer would not be counted as unemployed in the chosen occupation.
• A Computer scientist who was last employed as a writer would not count as unemployed in her/his occupation.
• Foreign nationals working on temporary visas cannot be unemployed.

STEM Crisis Myth

Three points of interest in this post.

A very good write-up on IEEE Spectrum, I hope they don’t mind that I’m using their image to encourage you to read their article.

The STEM Crisis Is a Myth

By Robert N. Charette
Posted 30 Aug 2013 | 19:28 GMT

 

“A Matter of Supply vs. Demand: Every year U.S. schools grant more STEM degrees than there are available jobs. When you factor in H-1B visa holders, existing STEM degree holders, and the like, it’s hard to make a case that there’s a STEM labor shortage.”

http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth

 

Updated: Employment vs. population growth by decade

5/12/2013

A snapshot of the employment situation  for our children and immigrants.

Back in June of 2010, we found that only 1 job new job for each 20 new persons of working age were created in the decade 2000 to 2010.  Effectively a 95% jobless rate among this segment of the population.

This post revisits the “Employment vs. Population Growth” concept. Lower immigration rates and better employment growth since 2010 has only adjusted the working age jobless rate to 79.5% for the new century.

A funny thing happened after the creation of the World Wide Web, being located in the United States is no longer necessary to participate in the global economy.

In the late 1990s corporations found that they could move production to lower cost economies. Corporations, colleges and immigration attorneys formed unions under the guise of “trade associations” and presented numerous defective economic studies on the benefit of lower cost goods and the virtue of immigrant entrepreneurs, guest workers and foreign exchange students.

Hungry politicians took the bait, hook line and sinker, and we are now faced with a too big to fail situation where our politicians are impotent. We are faced with a crap-sandwich, in the form of a Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill (S 744) that will add millions of employment seeking immigrants per year, while facts at hand are being ignored.

A simple aggregate of Bureau of Labor Statistic household data displays how the employment paradigm has changed since the turn of the century.

•  Removing the population and employment growth for those 65 and over negates the Baby-Boomer retirement argument.

Employment to Population Growth (Ages 16 through 64)
Decade	Population Growth	Employment Growth	Employment rate
1950s	7,559,000	7,117,000	94.15%
1960s	15,772,000	13,817,000	87.60%
1970s	25,569,000	21,291,000	83.27%
1980s	15,470,000	17,335,000	112.06%
1990s	18,591,000	16,366,000	88.03%
2000 – 2010	22,268,000	1,048,000	4.71%
Selected Period	Population Growth	Employment Growth	Employment rate
2000 – Apr 2013	25,810,000	5,280,000	20.46%
2010 – Apr 2013	3,542,000	4,232,000	119.48%

 
For the first decade of the 2000s, there was only 1 new job created for every 20 working-age entrants into the workforce. In the decade following (2010 to present) employment growth slightly exceeds population growth, but that is largely because of a reduction in population growth.  If the 119.48% rate (2010 to present) continues for the rest of this decade without change, only 12,696,000 jobs will be created for the 2010s.  Roughly 40 million native born children enter the workforce in the decade, while the national mortality rate is about 15 million per decade.  Combining the two time periods, 2000 to present (April 2013), only 1 job has been created for every five new entrants into the workforce (noninstitutionalized population ages 16 through 64).

Effectively, we are experiencing an 79.5% unemployment rate for the population of new working-age adults added to the population since 2000.  Is this the time to blindly double the rate of legal immigration and surrender to illegal immigration without ever trying to enforce the rules of the 1986 IRCA amnesty which described the creation of E-Verify?


Source Data:

IT Industry Refuses Unemployed Professionals

 

• Employment levels in Computer-related occupations grew by 173,500 over 2011 and 2012.

• Why did unemployment levels (comprised exclusively of experienced professionals) only decline by 6,667?

Sections:

Overview:
Less than 5% of experienced unemployed computer professionals become re-employed:
Historical employment levels in Computer-related occupations:
Sources for IT talent acquisition in Computer-related occupations:
Appendix A:
Data resources:

Overview:

Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) indicates that unemployed computer professionals are benefiting from less than 5% of 173,500 in new jobs created in the recovery of 2011-12.  These are experienced professionals who are actively seeking employment and have not (yet) taken employment in another field to get by.

To qualify for the CPS occupational unemployment statistic, the unemployed professional must have held a position in the occupation as their last job.  Thus, these unemployment statistics do not include new college graduates or discouraged professionals who have given up looking for work. Additionally, if a computer professional takes a construction job and becomes unemployed s/he is no longer included on the Computer-related unemployment statistic.

Pro-guest worker pundits present seemingly low unemployment numbers for the Computer-related  occupations and leave the reader, or Congressman, to errantly assume the CPS occupational statistic is comparable to the “headline” unemployment statistic, which is not filtered by occupation, or the prior job function performed.

Considering the fact that the CPS unemployment levels can only include experienced professionals, we can measure the change in unemployment levels in direct comparison with the change in employment.  In simple terms, “How much do unemployment levels (comprised of only experienced professionals) go down when employment levels go up?”  

Less than 5% of experienced unemployed become re-employed

Methodology: Table 1 displays occupational averages of the employment and unemployment level (growth – loss) aggregates from two years of CPS data. (See Appendix A)

• Quarter I 2011 is subtracted from Quarter I 2012

• Quarter II 2011 is subtracted from Quarter II 2012

• Quarter III 2011 is subtracted from Quarter III 2012

• Quarter IV 2011 is subtracted from Quarter IV 2012

From 2011 forward, Computer-related occupations reflect the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).

Instructions provided with the Current Population Survey: “Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”

Table 1 displays the averages of aggregate tables produced from the 2011 and 2012, quarterly reports. The instructions provided with the CPS data cautions that the data should be “smoothed” over four Quarters due to variations in sampling levels. Effectively, Table 1 and Table 2, represent 2 years of smoothed data -- Quarter I 2011 through Quarter IV 2012.

Table 1 (Growth – Loss Computer-related occupations 2011-12)

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Qtr I 2011 through Qtr IV 2012
Eight Quarters Smoothed	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	8,750	NA
Computer systems analysts	51,750	7,250
Information security analysts	7,500	NA
Computer programmers	20,750	4,750
Software developers, applications and systems software	38,000	-12,250
Web developers	8,000	-750
Computer support specialists	14,750	-2,750
Database administrators	-32,500	1,333
Network and computer systems administrators	-7,250	-250
Computer network architects	29,500	NA
Computer occupations, all other	34,250	-4,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	173,500	-6,667	3.84%

NA: Unemployment data not reported for one or more quarter (CPS quarters are calendar based)
Table 1 displays the average of eight 2011 and 2012 CPS occupational reports. 

The average employment growth for the period is 173,500, yet unemployment levels, comprised exclusively of experienced professionals, declined by only 6,667. The result, is that only 3.84% of new employment growth went to officially unemployed professionals with experience in the occupation.

Notably, unemployment increased in “Computer systems analysts” and “Computer programmers” while employment also increased.

In Table 2 (below),  employment growth and loss is removed from the three occupations where the CPS unemployment level was not reported in one or more Quarters.

Table 2 (Growth – Loss Computer-related occupations 2011-12 (Isolated occupations))

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Qtr I 2011 through Qtr IV 2012
Eight Quarters Smoothed	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	NA	NA
Computer systems analysts	51,750	7,250
Information security analysts	NA	NA
Computer programmers	20,750	4,750
Software developers, applications and systems software	38,000	-12,250
Web developers	8,000	-750
Computer support specialists	14,750	-2,750
Database administrators	-21,000	1,333
Network and computer systems administrators	-7,250	-250
Computer network architects	NA	NA
Computer occupations, all other	34,250	-4,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	139,250	-6,667	4.79%

NA: Unemployment data not reported for one or more quarter (CPS quarters are calendar based)

Table 2 produces a slightly more favorable outcome for experienced professionals, however, the data still indicates that some 95% of employment growth almost certainly went to inexperienced college graduates and/or temporary foreign-workers.   (Temporary foreign workers have first “dibs” on new employment as the necessary provision for entrance into the U.S.)

Conservatively, out of 139,250 new Computer-related jobs, only 6,667 (4.79%) were filled by experienced professionals who qualified as unemployed (actively seeking employment).

Observations from Table 2

• Computer systems analysts employment levels increased, but unemployment levels also increased.

• Software developer, applications and systems software professionals had a 1 in 3 probability of becoming re-employed

• Computer programmers employment levels increased, but unemployment levels also increased

• Web developers had a 1 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed

• Computer support specialists had roughly a 2 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed

• Database administrators employment levels declined and unemployment levels also increased

• Computer occupation, all other had a little better than 1 in 10 probability of becoming re-employed

Historical employment levels in  Computer-related occupations

Historical employment growth for Computer-related occupations was only 16,545 per year from 2000 to 2010. An average of 84,160, Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to citizens and permanent residents annually.

New H-1B visas in Computer-related occupations averaged 53,204 per year from 2000 to 2011. Additionally, H-1B visa holders can adjust status to become permanent residents, so temporary immigration is a solution to a problem that does not exist.

Table 3

Computer-related Employed (000s)	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Computer scientists and systems analysts	835	734	682	722	700	745	715	825	837	759	784
Computer programmers	745	689	630	563	564	581	562	526	534	498	470
Computer software engineers	739	745	715	758	813	832	846	907	1034	952	1026
Computer support specialists	350	355	353	330	325	334	314	332	382	384	388
Database administrators	54	66	84	72	94	89	90	104	93	110	101
Network and computer systems administrators	154	185	179	176	190	200	180	214	227	207	229
Network systems and data communications analysts	305	353	328	359	312	322	356	383	422	401	366
Computer-related Employment Levels	3,182	3,127	2,971	2,980	2,998	3,103	3,063	3,291	3,529	3,311	3,364
Employment Level Change 2000 – 2010	182,000
Average Employment growth 2000 – 2010	16,545
Employment Level Low (2003)	2,980,000
Employment Level High (2008)	3,529,000
High – Low Fluctuation	549,000	15.6%
Sustained Change (2000 to 2010)	182,000	5.2%
Disposable workforce	367,000	10.4%

Between 2006 and 2008 employment levels in Computer-related occupations grew by 466,000 (15.21%).  Even at this rate of  expansion, unemployment levels went from 2.3% in to 2006 to 2.8% during the peak of employment in 2008.  In 2009, employment levels dropped by 218,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 5.5%,  2.4 times the 2006 unemployment rate.

Table 4 Unemployment rates

Unemployment	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Computer scientists and systems analysts	2.3	2.8	4.4	5.2	3.9	3.1	2.7	2.2	2.3	6.1	5.9
Computer programmers	2.0	4.0	6.1	6.4	5.8	2.3	2.4	2.2	3.6	4.8	5.7
Computer software engineers	1.7	4.2	4.7	5.2	3.3	2.4	2.1	1.8	1.7	4.5	4.6
Computer support specialists	3.4	4.2	5.4	5.4	4.6	3.4	3.4	3.9	3.9	6.2	7.7
Database administrators	3.0	2.6	2.9	6.6	2.0	4.4	0.4	0.8	2.2	4.7	2.9
Network and computer systems administrators	1.3	2.1	6.0	5.3	3.4	3.9	2.5	2.3	3.0	7.0	5.4
Network systems and data communications analysts	2.8	4.6	4.3	6.5	5.8	3.8	2.6	1.6	3.0	5.1	4.4
Average Unemployment	2.4	3.5	4.8	5.8	4.1	3.3	2.3	2.1	2.8	5.5	5.2

NOTE:  Unemployment for occupations refers to the experienced unemployed (those with prior work experience), classified according to their last job.
This SOC-based occupational classification system was introduced in 2003 and comparable data are available only back to 2000.
SOURCE:  Current Population Survey (CPS), Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

Sources for IT talent acquisition in Computer-related occupations 

Average (Experienced) Unemployed (2012) = 142,000

Average US Citizen/Perm Resident CS & CIS degrees = 84,160

Average Temporary Resident CS & CIS degrees = 11,810

Average Comp-related new H-1B visa = 53,204

Average Comp-related new L-1 visa = Undisclosed by USCIS

Total = 291,174

 Table 5: Unemployed – actively seeking employment with experience in field as last position

2011 Unemployed by Qtr.		2012 Unemployed by Qtr.
I	159,000	I	166,000
II	128,000	II	138,000
III	151,000	III	134,000
IV	144,000	IV	130,000
Avg.	145,500	Avg.	142,000

Table 6: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to Citizens and Permanent Residents.

U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents:Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race
Year	Doctorate Degrees	Master's Degrees	Bachelor's Degrees	Associate's Degrees	Total
1999	471	7,438	28,165	18,768	54,842
2000	402	8,362	34,619	23,085	66,468
2001	395	9,091	40,192	29,396	79,074
2002	410	9,252	45,797	34,553	90,012
2003	413	10,423	53,072	45,392	109,300
2004	455	11,312	54,908	41,281	107,956
2005	500	10,975	50,597	35,766	97,838
2006	551	10,489	44,901	30,981	86,922
2007	680	10,027	40,163	27,543	78,413
2008	518	9,746	37,118	28,159	75,541
2009	456	9,641	36,677	29,751	76,525
2010	NA	10,066	38,240	32,229	80,535
2011	NA	10,786	41,558	37,356	89,700
Total	5,251	127,608	546,007	414,260	1,093,126
Average yr.	477	9,816	42,001	31,866	84,160

(NCES population of institutions)
Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services

Table 7: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services degrees awarded to Temporary Residents.

Temporary Residents: Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race
Year	Doctorate Degrees	Master's Degrees	Bachelor's Degrees	Associate's Degrees	Total
1999	334	5,378	2,260	404	8,376
2000	375	6,624	2,900	491	10,390
2001	373	7,761	3,405	717	12,256
2002	340	7,713	3,909	1,025	12,987
2003	403	9,167	4,854	1,178	15,602
2004	455	8,896	5,060	1,042	15,453
2005	621	7,514	3,991	785	12,911
2006	865	6,649	3,099	550	11,163
2007	917	6,287	2,433	428	10,065
2008	820	7,405	1,804	404	10,433
2009	507	8,347	1,819	489	11,162
2010	NA	7,955	1,867	503	10,325
2011	NA	8,733	2,028	555	11,316
Total	6,010	98,429	39,429	8,571	152,439
Average yr.	546	7,571	3,033	659	11,810

(NCES population of institutions)
Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services

 

Table 8: H-1B Visa Initial Employment Approvals (Avg. Comp-related 53,204 per year)

H-1B Initial Employment in Computer-related occupations (3 year visa)
Fiscal Year	Initial Employment	Computer-Related Occupations	Percent
2000	135,362	74,551	55.1%
2001	200,116	110,713	55.3%
2002	102,667	25,637	25.0%
2003	104,458	28,879	27.6%
2004	129,703	56,559	43.6%
2005	115,662	52,352	45.3%
2006	109,408	56,393	51.5%
2007	119,813	62,268	52.0%
2008	109,228	58,074	53.2%
2009	86,062	29,793	34.6%
2010	75,825	31,661	41.8%
2011	106,445	51,570	48.4%
Totals	1,394,749	638,450	45.8%
Source: USCIS Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 20xx[23]

 

Appendix A

The following Occupational Growth – Loss tables were uses to create Table 1 and Table 2.

From Quarter I 2011 to Quarter I 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 220,000 unemployment decreased by 2,000

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q1 2011 to Q1 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	10,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	65,000	7,000
Information security analysts	4,000	NA
Computer programmers	59,000	-3,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	-34,000	-11,000
Web developers	54,000	5,000
Computer support specialists	-32,000	-5,000
Database administrators	-67,000	NA
Network and computer systems administrators	-3,000	2,000
Computer network architects	23,000	NA
Computer occupations, all other	141,000	3,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	220,000	-2,000	-0.91%

From Quarter II 2011 to Quarter II 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 61,000 unemployment increased by 10,000

 

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q2 2011 to Q2 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	11,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	53,000	8,000
Information security analysts	-3,000	NA
Computer programmers	29,000	2,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	-28,000	-16,000
Web developers	-12,000	-4,000
Computer support specialists	55,000	4,000
Database administrators	-55,000	2,000
Network and computer systems administrators	-36,000	7,000
Computer network architects	52,000	0
Computer occupations, all other	-5,000	7,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	61,000	10,000	16.39%

From Quarter III 2011 to Quarter III 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 83,000 unemployment decreased by 21,000

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q3 2011 to Q3 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	16,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	37,000	9,000
Information security analysts	15,000	NA
Computer programmers	-4,000	15,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	52,000	-10,000
Web developers	-13,000	-3,000
Computer support specialists	-2,000	-5,000
Database administrators	-17,000	1,000
Network and computer systems administrators	-3,000	-7,000
Computer network architects	8,000	NA
Computer occupations, all other	-6,000	-21,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	83,000	-21,000	-25.30%

From Quarter IV 2011 to Quarter IV 2012, Current Population Survey indicates that employment increased by 330,000 unemployment decreased by 13,000

Employment Loss/Gain by Occupation in Computer Related Occupations Q4 2011 to Q4 2012
	Growth Loss
	Employed	Unemployed
Computer and information research scientists	-2,000	NA
Computer systems analysts	52,000	5,000
Information security analysts	14,000	NA
Computer programmers	-1,000	5,000
Software developers, applications and systems software	162,000	-12,000
Web developers	3,000	-1,000
Computer support specialists	38,000	-5,000
Database administrators	9,000	1,000
Network and computer systems administrators	13,000	-3,000
Computer network architects	35,000	2,000
Computer occupations, all other	7,000	-5,000
Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed	330,000	-13,000	-3.94%

Data resources:

Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B) Link

Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas (Detailed Breakdown) (Including Crewlist Visas and Border Crossing Cards) Fiscal Years 2007 – 2011 http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/NIVClassIssued-DetailedFY2007-2011.pdf

Office of the Inspector General, “Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program“ http://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/Mgmt/OIG_06-22_Jan06.pdf

Institute of International Education. (2012). "International Students by Academic Level, 2010/11 – 2011/12."

Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange. Retrieved from http://www.iie.org/opendoors

“Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services” degrees are specific to the occupational group 15-1xxx Computer-related occupations. http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15

California Post Secondary Education Committee http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15

Current Population Survey occupational data is available on request from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Instructions provided with the Current Population Survey, Occupational statistics include, “Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”