Computer Occupations: H-1B 80% of (Recession Recovery) Employment Level Growth 2011-2013

During the "recovery" from the most severe economic times since the Great Depression, 80% of Computer Employment Growth went to new H-1B immigrants.

Recession and recovery periods are critically important, foreign labor work authorizations  during these periods must be highly scrutinized.

The BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) offer us of view of the occupational levels from year to year.  Released in May of each year, the titles can be a bit misleading, for instance, the May 2013 report covers from the end of May 2012 through April 2013 -- so the MAY 2013 OES report in question aligns almost perfectly with the Fiscal Year 2012 H-1B Characteristics report from USCIS (Fiscal year begins on April 1).

The H-1B is a 3 year visa in its fist term, with a single 3 year extension and unlimited 1 year extensions for those who have secured PERM employment sponsorship for a Green Card. 

In order to compare employment level growth and H-1B foreign labor assumption of employment growth, we need to look at the 3 year period where the H-1B is known to have employment authorization.
 

H-1B New Employment Approvals  in Computer Occupations

FY 2012 = 83,444 (61.4% of total new approvals)
FY 2011 = 51,570 ( 48.9% of total new approvals )
FY 2010 = 31,661 ( 41.8 of total new approvals)
Total 166,675
Source: USCIS Reports and Studies

Concerning the employment level Gain or Losses, a portion of the Computer Occupations do not require a bachelors degree or higher and therefore, should not be eligible for the H-1B program.

Computer Occupations, 3 year Employment Level Loss Gain
Bachelors Degree or Higher = 206,240 *
Associate Degree =  73,870

* The Bachelors Degree or Higher contains Web Developers, which is an Associate Degree entry position, but that number cannot be extracted from this data-series.

 Once again, we see that of the employment growth that is H-1B eligible, 206,240  jobs, 166,875 of these jobs (89%) went to H-1B "temporary" immigrants.


Meanwhile, 235,818 entry degrees, 125,393 bachelors and 110,425 associate degrees, were awarded to citizens and permanent residents in Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services from 2010 to 2012.
Source: WebCaspar NCSES

Occupational Employment Statistics - Data

			2011	2013	Emp. Loss / Growth
	Computer Occupations		3,293,020	3,573,120
					Bachelors	Associate
15-1111	Computer and Information Research Scientists		25,160	24,380	-780
15-1121	Computer Systems Analysts		487,740	507,100	19,360
15-1131	Computer Programmers		320,100	312,340	-7,760
15-1132	Software Developers, Applications		539,880	643,830	103,950
15-1133	Software Developers, Systems Software		387,050	373,510	-13,540
15-1141	Database Administrators		108,500	114,910	6,410
15-1142	Network and Computer Systems Administrators		341,800	362,310	20,510
15-1150	Computer Support Specialists		632,490	706,360		73,870
15-1179	Information Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Architects		272,670	332,110	59,440	*
15-1799	Computer Occupations, All Other*		177,630	196,280	18,650
Totals			3,293,020	3,573,130	206,240	73,870	26%

Source data: http://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm

STEM Crisis Myth

Three points of interest in this post.

A very good write-up on IEEE Spectrum, I hope they don’t mind that I’m using their image to encourage you to read their article.

The STEM Crisis Is a Myth

By Robert N. Charette
Posted 30 Aug 2013 | 19:28 GMT

 

“A Matter of Supply vs. Demand: Every year U.S. schools grant more STEM degrees than there are available jobs. When you factor in H-1B visa holders, existing STEM degree holders, and the like, it’s hard to make a case that there’s a STEM labor shortage.”

http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth

 

STEM – Don’t Let This Happen to Your Job

 

The H-1B (High skill foreign labor) debate centers around the “Computer-related occupations” employment classification.  Computer-related occupations have borne the brunt of High Skill immigration policy,  Computer-related occupations is just 2.57% of the nation’s employment, but averages 46% of all new H-1B visas and 50% of all H-1B renewals.

(Table 1)

(Table 2)

The remaining H-1B visas are distributed among seventeen occupational groups when including, “Occupation Unknown”.  In addition to the H-1B visa, we have the L-1 Intracompany visa, which is nearly identical to the H-1B.  The table below uses the Computer-related occupation percentages from Table 1 (H-1B initial approvals), to estimate population of Computer-related (C&IS) L-1 visas.

(Table 3)

Temporary work visas are only part of the story, we need to examine the “Bright Outlook” occupations that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are always pushing in Employment Projections.  The following table uses BLS Occupational Employment Statistics to determine employment level growth in Computer-related occupations. 

The “USA Jobs Remaining” column is the employment growth/loss with employment granted to temporary immigrants subtracted.

(Table 4)

Of course, H-1B and L-1 visas authorize employment for 3 years. We need to evaluate  the “USA Jobs Remaining” data in 3 year periods. Also note that temporary immigrant data for 2011 is still not published – so the statistic (table below) gets a “free” 117,500 jobs in 2011.

(Table 5)

The “USA Jobs Remaining” entries in Table 5 are a simple aggregate of the corresponding entries in the “USA Jobs Remaining” column in Table 4.  Recall that the 2011 temporary immigration data is unavailable, the  2009-11 statistic will only get worse.

Finally, we need to consider the Computer-related (C&IS) degrees conferred to citizens and permanent residents. Of course, the terms of the H-1B and L-1 visa is that there must be a job waiting upon arrival, so our students take a “back-seat” to the temporary immigrants.

(Table 6)

Some of the citizen and permanent resident students in Table 6 may already be employed, or may be in school full time in progress to a higher degree.  However, when they enter the workforce, they will be competing for employment with foreign students who enjoy a 29 month,  Social Security exempt while under a student visa, intern status on OPT.  (Qualified Foreign Students)

We’ve done a good job of warning American students to stay away from Computer Science majors, In the light of the USCIS announcing more eligible majors for the OPT classification, I assume the immigration lawyers are looking for other STEM occupations to victimize.

Source:

2011 OES Employment level data can be found at  National Cross-Industry 

OES Employment level data (National Cross Industry) for 1999-2010 Here

H-1B Characteristics Reports (2004 through 2010) can be found Here

L-1 visa data can be found Here (Excel)

The 1999 through 2003 H-1B Characteristics Reports appear to be unavailable online, data was taken from archive copies.

Educational data was downloaded from NSF resources before a change to the web interface. I do not know if it is still possible to query the data by residency status.

H-1B visa: Impact on Computer-related Occupations 2009

From 2004-09, IT employment grew by 602,000. New H-1B initial approvals in Computer related occupations was 315,249 or 52.4% of employment growth, similar temporary foreign worker categories likely raised the temporary foreign worker percentage to above 80% of employment growth. Over a similar period (2003-08), there was an abundance of new IT workers, as U.S. Citizen/Permanent Resident degree production exceeded demand at over 757,000 degrees conferred.

From 2004-09, only 2,360 jobs were created in "Computer and information scientists, research," the only category that requires a postgraduate degree (per CA PostSecondary Education Committee). Contrary to the graph above, if we exclude all new A.S. degrees, and assume all Tech support workers must have a B.S. degree, the educational system still performed adequately when foreign students are counted. (Earlier study by specialty also shows no IT talent shortage)

U.S. Computer related degrees conferred (B.S., M.S., Prof. and PhD 2003 - 08)

U.S. Citizen and Permanent Residents = 505,042
Temporary Residents = 95.898
Total Degrees, Bachelors and above = 600,940

Computer related employment growth (2004-09) = 602,180 (100%)

H-1B visa, new approvals = 315,249 (52.4%)
L-1 visas issued (2005-09) est. 50% of incoming are IT = 185,689 (30.8%)
H-1B and L-1 employment growth total = 501,118 (83.2%)

Between 315,000 and 501,000 new IT jobs were assumed by H-1B and L-1 temporary workers. Excluding the degrees conferred to Temporary Residents, the unemployment rate for this segment of the workforce would be between 26.6% and/or 67.1% respectively.  Speaking of unemployment, a modest 3% unemployment rate for the occupation provides another 96,000 persons in the ready workforce.

Referring to the Graph above:

H-1B and L-1 must have an employment offer to enter the U.S. and must remain employed H-1B and L-1 est. increases amounted to 80% of employment growth from 2004-09 Hiring counts of Citizen and PermRes are nearly identical to U.S. postgraduate degrees conferred Postgrad degree now preferred for Citizens/PermRes while undergrad degree for H-1 B, L-1 Undergraduate Citizen and PermRes are displaced by H-1B, L-1 or "crowd out" older Professionals The Computer related occupations are oversubscribed with foreign undergraduate level professionals.

The Question:
How did we arrive at the point where 52% of all new IT hires are H-1B and historically about 50% of all H-1B are in IT occupations?

The, "U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections," predicted that Computer Specialist occupational levels would reach 4.2 million, an increase of 1.9 million (82%) by 2010.  The predicted "dire shortages" of Computer specialists did not occur because employment levels only reached 3.2 million in 2009.

Employers claim that they need this "slack" in the employment market and need access to the brightest in the world -- for the years in question, employment levels that require a postgraduate degree only grew by 2,360.

Recommendation:

The 2/3 employment retention rule:
Business immigration is privilege, not a right, the most damaging aspect of the H-1B program is that it is unrestricted during recessions and unrestricted during the early stages of recovery.  When water is splashed from a puddle, it is replaced with other water; in the case of unstoppable flow foreign labor, unemployment becomes permanent when an oversupply of  labor exists during and after recession..

Metering the intake of  foreign workers is extremely important when the business cycle is declining.  Measured by occupations, the temporary foreign worker educational requirements should be adjusted upward when the count of new temporary workers exceeds 1/3 of employment growth statistic (more below).   While keeping the door open for the brightest and best postgraduates (58% in 2009) and allowing the business cycle to run its course, the intake of undergraduate foreign professionals would be halted during recession and through early stages of recovery.

Three types of professionals are involved, but two of these professionals are the same person in a different time period: the U.S. professional, the temporary professional (H-1B), the dual-intent professional. Both the citizen and the dual-intent professional are interested in retaining permanent U.S. employment, the temporary professional is presumed to be mobile. From this perspective, the number of temporary foreign professionals should not exceed 1/3 of the long term employment growth statistic because there is already another, more seasoned, temporary professional who may choose to become a citizen.

.In an oversubscribed occupation such as IT, temporary layoffs in these permanent positions are often filled with new foreign workers instead of the separated worker.  In raising visa educational requirements when a 1/3 oversubscription occurs, temporary visa are still available to the industry while population ratio recovers. In a recovering business cycle, unemployed and new student professional are favored due to visa restrictions. As the business cycle peaks, the restrictions on visa educational requirements are reduced.

The employment growth statistic would cover a period equal to the maturity of the temporary visa.  The 2/3 employment retention rule protects citizens, permanent residents and persons adjusting status from permanent employment separation during recession.  The 2/3 employment retention rule would discourage offshore outsourcing because a reduction in staff causes an immigration restriction within the occupation for the following year(s). The rule would allow separated workers and new college graduates a short term "grace" period while the economy is suffering and recovering from recession. Finally, the 2/3 employment reservation rule would help ensure that employment based immigration policy leans toward employment retention of current and future citizens.

This paper examines a six year period of:
Occupational Employment Growth
Employment based visas granted or employment approvals in the H-1B and L-1 categories
U.S. college degrees conferred in Computer related occupations.

H-1B Visa Impact on Computer Related Occupations 2009

We finally have the USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B):" reports. These H-1B reports are important because they publish the numbers of visas approved and the occupations of the new H-1B non-immigrant worker(s). Lou Dobbs started reporting about the excessive amount of H-1B workers affecting Computer related occupations in about 2006-07. The 2006-07 H-1B Characteristics reports, mandated by Congress, went unpublished for the remainder of the Bush Presidency.

Occupational Employment Data:
The Office of Employment Statistics (OES) has released its May 2009, estimates of the occupational employment and current wages. To determine the impact of these non-immigrant visa programs in the occupation, the first step is to find the employment growth in Computer related occupations.

Six year Growth in Computer related occupations 2004 - 2009
 Entry Level Education Prereq (STEPS)

Computer and information scientists, research = 2,360 PhD
Computer programmers = ( -35,340) BS
Computer software engineers, applications = 84,920 BS
Computer software engineers, systems software = 92,680 BS
Computer support specialists = 60,040 AS
Computer systems analysts = 27,000 BS
Database administrators = 10,540 BS
Network and computer systems administrators = 94,280 BS
Network systems and data communications analysts = 69,810 BS
Computer specialists, all other = 195,890 AS

Occupational Employment growth = 602,180

Even though the Computer related occupations lost (-1,120) jobs in 2009, employment growth of 602,180 jobs is a lot better than some of the other periods I've looked at. These were pretty good employment growth years, between recessions and notably , the Tech sector started hiring again in 2004.

I've sampled a six year growth period, because six years is the duration of the standard H-1B temporary foreign worker visa, with a three year initial and a three year continuing employment period.

Temporary Foreign Worker Data:
By the numbers, virtually all H-1B visas are renewed, or extended, counts of continuing employment approvals consistently exceed initial employment approvals. Excess visa counts in continuing approvals are due to a combination of continuing 3 year employment approvals and greencard (AC21) extensions, but these are still H-1B workers just the same.  The H-1B count is this report are limited to initial employment approvals in Computer related occupations.

An H-1B non-immigrant worker cannot enter the U.S. without employment, so we know that a certain amount of occupational growth is/was reserved for H-1B initial employment.

Occupational Employment growth = 602,180
H-1B initial emp. approvals 2004 - 09 = 315,429 (52%)

Occupational Subtotal = 286,751

The H-1B is not the only non-immigrant visa that adversely affects Computer related occupations. The "Intra-company" L-1 visa, is also a three year visa, but differs with a single two year extension for workers and can be extended twice for managers. The Office of Inspector General (OIG) has studied the L-1 visa and poses the question in a section heading, "Is the L-1, The Computer visa?" ...quoted from the same section... "From 1999 to 2004, nine of the ten firms that petitioned for the most L-1 workers were computer and IT related outsourcing service firms that specialize in labor from India."

Like the H-1B visa, the L-1 visa is also "portable" under AC21 (greencard eligible) immigration law. In this estimate I will use 50% of the L-1 (instead of the OIG estimate of 90%) and limit the duration to a single extension of 5 years total. Computer related occupations within the H-1b program is generally 50%, the L-1 should be at least half Computer related considering the OIG documentation.

Occupational Subtotal = 286,751
50% of L-1 visas issued 2005 - 09 = 185,689

Subtotal (America's share 16.78% of occupational growth) = 101,063

Consequently, Americans are resigned to accept that 83% of its Computer related employment growth is reserved for H-1b and L-1 non-immigrants. Even with the current state of the economy, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (and others) lobbies for more high-skill non-immigrant visas.

Occupational Characteristics of IT related H-1B
Of the 56,000 IT related H-1B visas granted in 2006, 55% of these new H-1B holders were undergraduates (31,000).  Sixty six percent of all (47,300 total) undergraduate H-1B initial approvals in 2006 were in Computer related (IT) occupations.  All other occupations combined only received 16,300 H-1B undergraduates.

In 2006, 44% of those receiving new H-1B visas in computer-related occupations had master’s degrees, and a little more than 1% had doctoral degrees. Over two-thirds of the slightly more than 110,000 recipients of H-1B visas in 2006 are in S&T occupations Education Levels. .


In FY 2006, 57% of [all] new H-1B visa recipients had advanced degrees, including 41% with master’s degrees, 5% with professional degree, and 11% with doctorates. http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c3/c3s4.htm

From 2004-09, only 2,360 jobs were created in "Computer and information scientists, research," the only category that requires a postgraduate degree (per CA PostSecondary Education Committee).


U.S. Educational Data:
The latest (NCES) educational data is for 2008,. I've downloaded Computer related "Degrees Conferred" data for the six year period (2003 - 2008),for comparison with the {six year} Computer related occupational growth data.

Computer related occupations
Degrees conferred 2003 - 2008

U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents

Professional and PHD = 3,807
Masters = 106,614
Bachelors = 394,621
Associate = 252,720

Total Degrees Conferred = 757,762

Referring to the Graph above:

H-1B and L-1 must have an employment offer to enter the U.S. and must remain employed Hiring counts of Citizen and PermRes are nearly identical to postgraduate degrees conferred Undergraduate Citizen and PermRes are displaced in competition with H-1B, L-1 Employment requirements are postgraduate for Citizens/PermRes and undergrad for H-1 B, L-1.

Finally, there is a little more competition in the system -- foreign students.

Computer related occupations
Degrees conferred 2003 - 2008

Temporary Residents

Professional and PHD = 5,158
Masters = 60,290
Bachelors = 30,450
Associate = 5,114

Total = 101,012

About Educational Data:
Many foreign students will enter the H-1B or OPT programs.

Counts of degrees conferred could contain duplicates -- a B.S. holder might also have earned an A.S. during the sample period.

Some persons in the degrees conferred data may already be employed in IT, however 1 and 2 year certificate data are not included here.

Observations:
IT employers claim they need this much slack in the labor force and more H-1B is not responsive to the business cycle

The prerequisite for employment in IT has been raised to postgraduate degree for citizens/PermRes

There is an abundance of both H-1B and citizen/PermRes undergraduates

The long term plans for new H-1B are undeclared/uncertain

Employment retention must be a goal to accommodate citizens and new citizens

Conclusion:

The 2/3 employment retention rule:
Business immigration is privilege, not a right, the most damaging aspect of the H-1B program is that it is unrestricted during recessions and unrestricted during the early stages of recovery.When water is splashed from a puddle it is replaced with other water; thus, unemployment becomes permanent when an oversupply of labor exists during and after recession..

Metering the intake of foreign workers is extremely important when the business cycle is declining. Measured by occupations, the temporary foreign worker educational requirements should be adjusted upward when the count of new temporary workers exceeds 1/3 of employment growth statistic (more below). While keeping the door open for the brightest and best postgraduates (58% in 2009) and allowing the business cycle to run its course, the intake of undergraduate foreign professionals would be reduced during halted and through early stages of recovery.

Three types of professionals are involved, but two of these professionals are the same person in a different time period: the U.S. professional, the temporary professional (H-1B), the dual-intent professional. Both the citizen and the dual-intent professional are interested in retaining permanent U.S. employment, the temporary professional is presumed to be mobile. From this perspective, the number of temporary foreign professionals should not exceed 1/3 of the long term employment growth statistic because there is already another, more seasoned, temporary professional who may choose to become a citizen.

.In an oversubscribed occupation such as IT, temporary layoffs in these permanent positions are often filled with new foreign workers instead of the separated worker. In raising visa educational requirements when a 1/3 oversubscription occurs, temporary visa are still available to the industry while population ratio recovers. In a recovering business cycle, unemployed and new student professional are favored due to visa restrictions. As the business cycle peaks, the restrictions on visa educational requirements are reduced.

The employment growth statistic would cover a period equal to the maturity of the visa. The 2/3 employment retention rule protects citizens, permanent residents and persons adjusting status from permanent employment separation during recession. The 2/3 employment retention rule would discourage offshore outsourcing because a reduction in staff causes an immigration restriction within the occupation for the following year(s). The rule would allow separated workers and new college graduates a short term "grace" period while the economy is suffering and recovering from recession. Finally, the 2/3 employment reservation rule would help ensure that employment based immigration policy leans toward employment retention of current and future citizens.

See Also:
A Shortage Where None is Found
http://immigration-weaver.blogspot.com/2009/08/shortage-where-none-is-found.html

Data Sources:

U.S. Department of State
Classes of Nonimmigrants Issued Visas – FY1989-2009 Detail Table (Excel Spreadsheet)
Parent: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/nivstats/nivstats_4582.html

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Reports
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2009
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2008
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2007
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2006
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2005
USCIS, "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): 2004


U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Reports:
Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates
National Cross Industry Estimates
2003 - 2009


Department Homeland Security : Office of the Inspector General
Report:
Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program
http://www.dhs.gov/xoig/assets/katovrsght/OIG_06-22_Jan06.pdf

California PostSecondary Education Committee
http://www.cpec.ca.gov/FiscalData/StepsDetail.asp?SOC=15

National Science Foundation

Data Source: IPEDS Completions Survey by Race
Analysis Variable: Degrees/Awards Conferred by Race (NCES population of institutions)
01.0106 Agricultural Business Technology
11.0101 Computer and Information Sciences, General
11.0103 Information Technology
11.0199 Computer Science, Other
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer, General
11.0202 Computer Programming Special Applications
11.0299 Computer Programming, Other
11.0301 Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician
11.0401 Information Science/Studies
11.0501 Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
11.0701 Computer Science
11.0801 Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information Resources Design
11.0802 Data Modeling/Warehousing and Database Administration
11.0803 Computer Graphics
11.0899 Computer Software and Media Applications, Other
11.0901 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications
11.1001 System Administration/Administrator
11.1002 System, Networking, and LAN/WAN Management/Manager
11.1003 Computer and Information Systems Security
11.1004 Web/Multimedia Management and Webmaster
11.1099 Computer/Information Technology Services Administration and Management, Other
11.9999 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other
14.0901 Computer Engineering, General
14.0902 Computer Hardware Engineering
14.0903 Computer Software Engineering
14.0999 Computer Engineering, Other
15.1201 Computer Engineering Technology/ Technician
15.1202 Computer Technology/Computer Systems Technology
15.1204 Computer Software Technology/Technician
15.1299 Computer Engineering Technologies/Technicians, Other
26.1103 Bioinformatics
26.1199 Biomathematics and Bioinformatics, Other
51.2706 Medical Informatics
52.0208 E-Commerce/Electronic Commerce
52.1201 Management Information Systems, General
52.1299 Management Information Systems and Services, Other

Rebuttal to H1B Shortage Claims

Revised 4/17/07
Perhaps there is a need for the H1B "Highly Skilled Worker" visa for some under-served vocations, never the less, there is also a need to evaluate possible abuses in a H1B category that had a 14.6 to 1 approval ratio in 2005.

For 2005, in the "Computer Systems Design & Related Services" category, the average number of (initial and continuing) non Computer related H1B approvals were 5,857 approvals while 85,552 approvals were granted to the "Computer Systems Design & Related Services" category.

As a point of reference, the 2005, "Computer Systems Design & Related Services" H1B category, exceeded 35.2% of all H1B approvals granted; the two nearest competing categories were "Other Industries" at 17.85%, and the cap-exempt, "Colleges, Universities, & Professional Schools" category at 11.30%. Source: "H-1B Petitions Approved by Detailed Industry and Type of Petition", "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B):October 2004 to September 2005"

Examination of the BLS SOC occupation codes, shows the number of computer relevant payroll jobs was 2,855,320 in May, 2005. The SOC code groups include "Computer Scientists" at the high-end of the scale through, "Computer Specialists" at the lower occupational level.

"Computer-related occupations" is the Major H-1B Occupational Group, which is not an endless supply of job growth in the U.S. The H-1B petition approvals for computer related occupations in 2005 exceeded 43% of all petitions approved.

In addition to the H-1B visa, the Intracompany Transfer (L-1) visa also adversely affects the "Computer-related occupations" category. The L-1A visa can be extended to seven years and the L-1B visa duration can be five years. Our government doesn't seem to publish the number of L-1 yearly petition approvals, but the number of L-1 admissions is published. L-1 worker total admissions for the years 2000 through 2005 equals 1,861,589.

The 2006 OIG report on the Intracompany Transfer (L-1) visa states, "From 1999 to 2004, nine of the ten firms that petitioned for the most L-1 workers were computer and IT related outsourcing service firms..."

We have another immigration category to consider, this is the EB or Employment Based Preference visa, these visas are for the workers on a greencard path to citizenship. The EB-2 and EB-3 visas are five year exceptional-skill visas. The EB-2 and EB-3 category immigrants also directly impact the Computer-related occupations concerning domestic workers.

The EB visa should be the preferred method for utilizing the services of the foreign-born because the EB employee is (eventually) immune to immigration-status coercion.

Data observed from the EB category, defies the industry claims to a skilled worker and/or a skilled worker visa shortage. One would think that businesses, desperate for H-1B visas, would be exhausting this category with initial visas, but this is not the case. It appears that employers don't want to consider the Employment Based category's path to citizenship for importing foreign workers.

With 840,000 EB visas available for the years 2000-2005, only 184,436 Employment Based entrance Visas were granted. Additionally, the unused portion of these visas can be reclaimed from the prior year. http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html

It's not as if these Employment Based Preference immigration caps are not met. Employment Based Legal Permanent Residence status was granted to 943,093, 2000-2005 petitioners, my math shows that 758,657 of the EB petitioners entered the United States under a visa other than the Employment Based Preference category.

Conclusion that the data will support:
Taking an average of the H1B approvals for the years 2000 - 2005, there were 739,197 computer-related H-1B petitions approved in a six year period. These H1B computer-related workers represent 25.89% of the 2,855,320 computer-related payroll positions, the number of departing first term H-1B computer-related workers reduces the percentage to 24.85%. (Payroll is required for all H-1B visas.)

Originally, I posted some computer-related market-share numbers based upon USCIS admission data, a friend pointed out that the admission data is not reliable because there is no straight forward method to accurately determine the number of re-entries from this data. (Thanks JGO) Since that time I’ve found entrance visa data from travel.state.gov and have reworked my impact estimate to exclude re-entries and subtract the continuing employment approvals from the actual visas issued instead of subtracting from the H-1B initial employment approvals.

The INCORRECT Computer-related market-share estimate:
Percentage of Computer-related Payroll labor force:

H1B visa holders 25.89%
L-1 visa holders 30.27%
EB visa holders 6.69%
U.S. Citizens 37.15%

Immigration related impact $ 98,702,314,102.69 ($98.7Billion)

The CORRECTED Computer-related market-share estimate:
Percentage of Computer-related Payroll labor force:
H-1B = 24.85%
L-1 = 21.91%
EB-2 & EB-3 using E visas = 1.09%
Non EB entrance visa on EB-2 & EB-3 LPR = 4.56%
2005 Percentage of Computer Related foriegn workers: = 52.416%
Immigration related impact = $ 82,315,252,278.80 ($82.3Billion)

The six year percentage, of Computer-related H1B approvals is 46.43%, the 2005 H-1B median salary was $55,000 for all H-1B workers.

See the following document for methodology and data:
Project: Guestworker Impact on U.S. Computer-related occupations 2000-2005
http://immigration-weaver.blogspot.com/2007/04/project-guestworker-impact-on-us.html

Here’s a quote that defies the "shortage of skilled workers" claim – maybe these workers are too skilled? Maybe too street smart?

"Cap Exempt Petitions. As directed by the H1B Visa Reform Act of 2004, USCIS treats as exempt from the cap for any fiscal year the first 20,000 H1B petitions reflecting an alien beneficiary with a US-earned masters or higher degree. For FY2005 and 2006 USCIS has now received approximately 10,000 and 8,000 of such petitions, respectively."
http://www.immigration-lawyer.com/visa/H1B/h1b_numbers.htm#06-cap

I wonder why Bill Gates doesn’t want to hire these really smart graduates?

Only fifty-four percent of H1B employment approvals held a Masters degree or higher in 2005. Of the total 117,536 initial employment petitions for 2005 "Highly Skilled Worker" visas, only 63469.44 had completed a postgraduate degree according to the 54% statistic. If the educational requirement for Highly Skilled Worker visa had been a postgraduate degree in 2005, there would have been a visa for every applicant . The 20,000 H1B for postgraduates of American colleges exemptions would not have been tapped.

One method to make sure there are enough H1B visas available to "Highly Skilled Essential Workers" is to make sure all approvals are Highly Skilled. Raising the educational requirement to postgraduate degree and adjudicating visa applications in the order of highest salary offers first, will help ensure that guestworker candidates truly are the brightest and the best.

Data Sources:

OIG L-1 Visa:
Review of Vulnerabilities and Potential Abuses of the L-1 Visa Program

USCIS
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2000
Report on Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2001
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2002
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2003
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2004
Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2005

Office of Immigration Statistics Annual Flow Report(s)
Nonimmigrant Admissions (I-94 Only) by Class of Admission: Fiscal Years 2000 to 2005

BLS Occupational Data (SOC codes)
Computer and Information Scientists, Research(151011)
Computer Programmers(151021)
Computer Software Engineers, Applications(151031)
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software(151032)
Computer Support Specialists(151041)
Computer Systems Analysts(151051)
Database Administrators(151061)
Network and Computer Systems Administrators(151071)
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts(151081)
Computer Specialists, All Other(151099)